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Could Cracker Barrel Move Higher After Earnings?

By Joel South · Updated Sep 17, 4:17pm ET · Published Sep 17, 3:00pm ET

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The top-line beat wasn’t enough to offset a guidance reset that implies steep EBITDA compression. The market’s –7% after-hours reaction reflects skepticism on the turnaround plan and concern about rising cost pressures overwhelming traffic and menu momentum.

What Changed This Quarter

  • Guidance reset sharply lower for FY26.

  • Remodel program paused indefinitely.

  • Shareholder-friendly actions announced: $0.25 dividend and $100M buyback authorization

Key Operating Highlights

  • Restaurant comps: +5.4% YoY
  • Retail comps: –0.8% YoY
  • Full year revenue: $3.48B (+2.2% ex-53rd week)
  • Full year adjusted EPS: $3.16 (down 10% YoY)

Guidance

As expected, full year estimates trending lower. Stock now down 7.4%

Metric Guidance Prior Trend Direction
Revenue $3.35B–$3.45B FY25 $3.48B 📉 Lower
Adjusted EBITDA $150M–$190M FY25 $224M 📉 Lower
Wage Inflation 3.0–4.0% Ongoing Headwind
Commodity Inflation 2.5–3.5% Ongoing Headwind

Management also said it will halt remodel spending, cut 14 Maple Street units, and only open 2 new Cracker Barrel stores in FY26.

CEO Comments

CEO Julie Masino struck a defensive tone:

“We’ve listened, switching back to our ‘Old Timer’ logo, hitting pause on remodels, and placing an even bigger emphasis in the kitchen… Many elements of our plan are working well, as evidenced by five consecutive quarters of restaurant comp growth and 9% adjusted EBITDA growth in FY25.”

Translation: comps and EBITDA trends are holding, but growth visibility has weakened, and guidance reflects that.

Earnings are in the stock tumbles

Stock reaction: –5.22% after hours

Metric Actual Consensus Beat/Miss
Revenue $868.0M $854.7M ✅ Beat
EPS (Adjusted) $0.74 $0.77 ❌ Miss
GAAP EPS $0.30 N/A —

  • Revenue was stronger than expected, up 4.4% YoY ex-53rd week comp, helped by +5.4% restaurant comps and only a slight –0.8% retail comp decline .

  • EPS miss came despite margin improvements, as higher advertising and G&A costs plus impairment charges dragged profitability. Adjusted net income fell 24% YoY .

  • Adjusted EBITDA of $55.7M was in line with consensus, but guidance reset spooked investors.

Stay here while we wait on the numbers in about 10 minutes

Cracker Barrel finished the day in the red, and we should get more color on the failed re-brand and 4th quarter earnings momentarily.

How The Stock Performed After Recent Earnings

Quarter EPS Surprise 1-Day Move 7-Day Move 14-Day Move
Q3 2025 +173.4% +3.26% +2.65% +11.13%
Q2 2025 +27.2% –1.20% –5.70% –5.75%
Q1 2025 +8.5% –6.71% –4.68% –4.48%
Q4 2024 –11.0% +1.12% +11.80% +12.19%

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The story so far

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (Nasdaq: CBRL) will report its Q4 FY2025 earnings after the close. The stock has was hit hard after a management rebranding fiasco that sent the share price down over 15%. Management continues to highlight the company’s three imperatives—driving relevancy, delivering experiences guests love, and growing profitability—but the main thing to watch is how much cash has been spent and what outcomes they drove. 

Estimates Snapshot

  • Revenue: $854.7 million (–4.4% YoY)

  • EPS (Normalized): $0.77 (vs. $0.98 YoY)

And full-year estimates currently stand at:

  • FY2025 Revenue: $3.47 billion (flat YoY)

  • FY2025 EPS: $3.19 (–9.5% YoY)

  • FY2026 Revenue: $3.52 billion (+1.4% YoY)

  • FY2026 EPS: $3.40 (+6.7% YoY)

Keys To Watch 

Based on the last quarter’s call, here are the themes likely to dominate investor focus:

  1. Tariff Impacts & Mitigation – Roughly one-third of retail goods come from China; management expects ~$5M Q4 EBITDA hit. Mitigation efforts include vendor negotiations, SKU rationalization, and selective pricing.

  2. Back-of-House Optimization – Phase 1 rollout already yielded savings; Phases 2–3 (pre-prepped ingredients, equipment upgrades) could unlock further permanent labor and margin gains into FY2026.

  3. Campfire Menu Relaunch & Loyalty Growth – Strong early response to returning Campfire meals and loyalty growth (8M+ members, 1/3 of sales tracked). AI-driven personalization testing shows mid-single-digit spend lift per member.

  4. Remodeling & Brand Refinement – 20 remodels and 20 refreshes completed last quarter but Management has deferred detailed FY2026 remodel guidance until September but but will see if that is still the case or will this get pushed back another quarter. 

  5. Traffic Trends & Consumer Mix – Q3 traffic was weak in February but improved through April. Analysts remain focused on whether traffic softness stabilizes, especially across age and income cohorts

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Joel South

Joel South covers large-cap stocks, dividend investing, and major market trends, with a focus on earnings analysis, valuation, and turning complex data into actionable insights for investors.

He brings more than 15 years of experience as an investor and financial journalist, including 12 years at The Motley Fool, where he served as an investment analyst, Bureau Chief, and later led the Fool.com investing news desk. He has also co-hosted an investing podcast and appeared across TV and radio discussing market trends.

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