Rivian Shares Surge 19%

By Douglas A. McIntyre Published Sep 24, 9:15AM EDT

Rivian Shares Surge 19% — © Bigc Studio / Shutterstock.com

It is one of the stock market’s little mysteries. Shares of troubled and small electric vehicle (EV) company Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN | RIVN Price Prediction) are up 19% in the past month. Because of heavy competition and the expiration of the $7,500 EV tax credit at the end of this month, the stock should be headed the other way.

Rivian has actually had a good year overall. Shares are up 16%, while the S&P 500 is 13% higher. However, going back five years, the chart is ugly. Rivian is 87% lower, while the S&P 500 is up 41%.

Rivian did announce it would build a $4 billion plant in Georgia. The move is a huge risk. The facility will not open until 2028. By that time, competitors will have had more than two years to advance sales, and perhaps build vehicles that compete directly with Rivian’s. However, one reason for the extra manufacturing is to build Rivian’s new, inexpensive R3 crossover. One criticism of Rivian is that the base price of its vehicles is $70,000. Some are closer to $100,000. The EV industry is trying to bring down prices to better compete with combustion-powered cars. With the $7,500 credit ending, that will be even harder.

CEO R.J. Scaringe said, “R3 represents a real big market unlock for us. It gets you into that category of purchases and prices that’s meaningfully below the average.” However, the segment is already crowded by vehicles like Ford’s Mustang Mach-E, which is already priced below $40,000.

The news will not chase away doubters. Rivian may deliver as few as 40,000 vehicles this year. In the June quarter, deliveries were just above 10,000. Revenue in the most recent quarter barely moved from $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion year over year. Rivian lost $1.2 billion in the period, compared to $1.4 billion last year. The company continues to bleed cash.

Rivian did receive an investment from Volkswagen that could total $5.8 billion over time. However, that is not what is driving the stock today, as the deal was announced in November 2024.

There is no reason for Rivian stock to rise, but that is what makes Wall Street a horse race.

Rivian Stock Price Prediction and Forecast 2025-2030

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About the Author Douglas A. McIntyre →

Douglas A. McIntyre is the co-founder, chief executive officer and editor in chief of 24/7 Wall St. and 24/7 Tempo. He has held these jobs since 2006.

McIntyre has written thousands of articles for 24/7 Wall St. He is an expert on corporate finance, the automotive industry, media companies and international finance. He has edited articles on national demographics, sports, personal income and travel.

His work has been quoted or mentioned in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, NBC News, Time, The New Yorker, HuffPost USA Today, Business Insider, Yahoo, AOL, MarketWatch, The Atlantic, Bloomberg, New York Post, Chicago Tribune, Forbes, The Guardian and many other major publications. McIntyre has been a guest on CNBC, the BBC and television and radio stations across the country.

A magna cum laude graduate of Harvard College, McIntyre also was president of The Harvard Advocate. Founded in 1866, the Advocate is the oldest college publication in the United States.

TheStreet.com, Comps.com and Edgar Online are some of the public companies for which McIntyre served on the board of directors. He was a Vicinity Corporation board member when the company was sold to Microsoft in 2002. He served on the audit committees of some of these companies.

McIntyre has been the CEO of FutureSource, a provider of trading terminals and news to commodities and futures traders. He was president of Switchboard, the online phone directory company. He served as chairman and CEO of On2 Technologies, the video compression company that provided video compression software for Adobe’s Flash. Google bought On2 in 2009.