As of 4:15 p.m. ET Shares Are Still Up

Here’s what Intel’s CFO had to say on 2026 capital expenditures:

“We expect to deploy more than $27 billion of CapEx in 2025 versus $17 billion deployed in 2024.”

That’s music to the ears of companies in the semiconductor equipment space as they’ll continue diversifying away from Taiwan Semiconductor.

Broadcom (Nasdaq: AVGO) is now a $1.6 trillion company largely thanks to their custom design business which has won large contracts with customers like Google and OpenAI. 

On Intel’s earnings call, they just announced the creation of a new custom chip business that will attempt to gain a beachhead in this extremely lucrative market:

“This includes hiring promoting top architecture talent as well as reimagining our core road map to ensure it is the best-in-class features. To accelerate this effort, we recently created the Central Engineering Group, which will unify our horizontal engineering functions to drive leverage across foundational IP development, test chip design, EDA tools and design platforms.

This new structure will eliminate duplications, improve time to decision-making and enhance coherence across all product development. In addition and just as important, the group will spearhead the build-out of our new ASIC and design service business to deliver purpose-built silicon for a broad range of external customers. This will not only extend the reach of our core x86 IP, but also leverage our design strength to deliver an array of solutions from general purpose to fixed function computing. “

Lip-Bu Tan offered a fairly lengthy discussion on how the company’s partnership with NVIDIA can fuel x86’s growth in the years ahead:

“Let’s start with our core x86 franchise, which continues to play a critical role in the age of AI. AI is clearly accelerating demand for new compute architectures, hardware models and algorithms. At the same time is fueling renewed growth of traditional compute as the underwriting data and the resulting insights continue to rely heavily on our existing products from cloud to edge.

AI is driving near-term upside to our business, and it is a strong foundation for sustainable long-term growth as we execute. In addition, with unmatched compatibility, security and flexibility by virtue of being the largest installed base of general-purpose compute x86 is well positioned to power the hybrid compute environment that AI workloads demand, particularly for inference edge workloads and Agentic system.

It is a great starting point from which to rebuild our market position to revitalizing and rejuvenating the x86 and positioning for the new era of computing with great products and partnerships.

Our collaboration with NVIDIA is a prime example. We are joining forces to create a new class of products and experience, spanning multiple generation that accelerate the adoption of AI for the hyperscale, enterprise and consumer markets. By connecting our architectures to NVIDIA NV link we combined Intel CPU and x86 leadership with NVIDIA unmatched AI and accelerated computing strength, unlocking innovative solutions that will deliver better customer experience and provide a big hit for Intel in the leading AI platform of tomorrow.

We need to continue to build on this momentum and capitalize on our position by improving our engineering and design execution.”

Here’s what Intel CEO Lip-Bu tan had to say about the government investing in the company:

“We are fully committed to advancing the Trump administration’s vision to restoring semiconductor production and proudly welcome the U.S. government as an essential partners in our efforts.

We also made tangible progress to improve our execution this quarter. We remain on track, not only to rightsize the company by year-end, but also to evolve the talent mix, reestablish the engineering-first mindset and optimize the executive and management levels across the organization. “

CNBC interviewed Intel’s CFO, who said that data center sales could be constrained through Q3 next year.

Intel’s call is starting now. We’ll provide updates as the call progresses. 

Intel shares are up 7.8% as of 4:48 p.m. ET.

The next event to watch is the company’s earnings call. You can register to join it here.

Of course, you can also just leave this blog open, where live updates on market-moving quotes from the call post automatically (we think that’s the smart move!). 

Intel shares keep gaining – now up 8.3% as of 4:29 p.m. ET.

As a reminder if you just came to this blog, we will be providing updates during Intel’s earnings call. All you need to do is leave this page open and new updates will post automatically. 

There’s a good chance shares could move even more depending on what Intel says on its call which begins at 5 p.m. ET.

The future of Intel depends on their ability to grow their Foundry business. Updates in Intel’s earnings release were relatively light. Here’s the main section to note:

• Fab 52, Intel’s fifth high-volume fab at its Ocotillo campus in Chandler, Arizona, became fully operational. This facility manufactures Intel 18A wafers, the most advanced logic wafers developed and produced in the United States, and is part of the more than $100 billion Intel is investing to expand its domestic operations.

We expect comments from CEO Lip-Bu Tan around future foundry outlook could be something that moves the stock by a significant degree on the company’s earnings call. We’ll be watching for any big movements and updating this article. Intel’s conference call begins at 5 p.m.

Here’s a summary of Intel’s earnings. 

• The stock is up 5.8% after soundly beating earnings and revenue estimates from last quarter. 

Revenue was $13.70 billion, above the $13.40 billion consensus estimate. Non-GAAP EPS was $0.23, exceeding the $0.01 estimate. Intel reported a 3% year-over-year revenue increase, driven by strong demand in AI and computing.

The company highlighted strategic collaborations with NVIDIA and SoftBank, which invested $5 billion and $2 billion, respectively, in Intel stock. Intel’s CEO emphasized the company’s focus on AI and advanced manufacturing capabilities.

The company forecasts Q4 2025 revenue between $12.8 billion and $13.8 billion, with non-GAAP EPS expected at $0.08. That’s roughly inline with expectations, with revenue a little below Wall Street’s expectations.

Intel’s strategic initiatives and government support are expected to enhance operational flexibility and strengthen its market position.

Here’s an interesting nugget from Intel’s earnings relase:

“Our stronger than expected Q3 results mark our fourth consecutive quarter of improved execution and reflect the underlying strength of our core markets. Current demand is outpacing supply, a trend we expect will persist into 2026.”

That’s a bullish statement for 2026 that investors are likely focusing on. There have been reports of Taiwan Semiconductor pushing through significant pricing increasees on wafers. That environment only benefits Intel as they’re both an alternative to TSMC and also a rising tide lifts all ships in an environment where demand continues to boom beyond what the industry can supply.

• Client Computing Group (CCG) Revenue: $8.5B [✅] Beats estimates of $8.15 billion
• Data Center and AI (DCAI) Revenue: $4.1B [⚠️] Beats estimates of $3.98 billion
• Intel Foundry Revenue: $4.2B [⚠️] Misses estimates of $4.5 billion

As you can see, 2 out of Intel’s three segments exceeded expectations. We expect plenty of focus on tonight’s earnings call around foundry and any forward-looking commentary Intel’s executives will provide. 

Next quarter Wall Street expected revenue of $13.37 billion and EPS of $.08.

Here’s what Intel had to say about next quarter:

“Forecasting fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $12.8 billion to $13.8 billion; expecting fourth-quarter EPS attributable to Intel of $(0.14) and non-GAAP EPS attributable to Intel of $0.08. Intel’s guidance excludes Altera, following the sale of a majority ownership interest completed in the third quarter of 2025.”

So at the midpoint, that’s $13.3 billion in revenue, which is slightly below estimates. Yet, investors appears willing to overlook this slight miss on guidance as shares are still up 5.1% as of 4:08 p.m. ET.

Shares are now up 6.1% as investors keep digesting news form these earnings.

INTC | Intel Corporation Q3’25 Earnings Highlights:

• Adj. EPS: $0.23 [✅]; UP +150% YoY
• Revenue: $13.7B (Est. $13.7B) [✅]; UP +3% YoY
• Adj. Gross Margin: 40.0% [✅]; UP +220 bps YoY
• Net Income: $4.1B [✅]; UP +124% YoY
• Cash from Operations: $2.5B

Q4’25 Outlook:

• Revenue: $12.8-13.8B [➖]
  • Intel’s guidance excludes Altera, following the sale of a majority ownership interest completed in Q3 2025.
  • Expecting fourth-quarter EPS attributable to Intel of $(0.14) and non-GAAP EPS attributable to Intel of $0.08.

Q3 Segment Performance:

• Client Computing Group (CCG) Revenue: $8.5B [✅]; UP +5% YoY
• Data Center and AI (DCAI) Revenue: $4.1B [⚠️]; DOWN -1% YoY
• Intel Foundry Revenue: $4.2B [⚠️]; DOWN -2% YoY
• All Other Revenue: $1.0B [✅]; UP +3% YoY

Other Key Q3 Metrics:

• Adj. Operating Income: $1.5B [✅]; UP +164% YoY
• Adj. Operating Expenses: $3.9B [✅]; DOWN -17% YoY
• R&D Expenses: $4.4B [✅]; DOWN -20% YoY
• Effective Tax Rate: 6.6% (vs. -87.0% YoY)
• Free Cash Flow: $896M

CEO Commentary:

• Lip-Bu Tan: “Our Q3 results reflect improved execution and steady progress against our strategic priorities. AI is accelerating demand for compute and creating attractive opportunities across our portfolio, including our core x86 platforms, new efforts in purpose-built ASICs and accelerators, and foundry services. Intel’s industry-leading CPUs and ecosystem, along with our unique U.S.-based leading-edge logic manufacturing and R&D, position us well to capitalize on these trends over time.”

CFO Commentary:

• David Zinsner: “We took meaningful steps this quarter to strengthen our balance sheet, including accelerated funding from the U.S. Government and investments by NVIDIA and SoftBank Group that increase our operational flexibility and demonstrate the critical role we play in the ecosystem. Our stronger than expected Q3 results mark our fourth consecutive quarter of improved execution and reflect the underlying strength of our core markets. Current demand is outpacing supply, a trend we expect will persist into 2026.”

If you’re wondering why Intel shares aren’t up more after this solid beat – guidance appears to be light. We’re digging into more details.

Adjusted EPS of $.23 (soundly beats estimates of $.01)

Revenue of $13.65 billion a beat on estimates of $13.14 billion.

Shares immediately jump 3.4%

Just a reminder before earnings – Intel’s 87% surge in 2025 is less about a business turnaround and more around geopolitical moves and the U.S. government investing in Intel and the belief that the Trump Administration will push for more companies to use Intel’s foundry in the years to come.

So, don’t get too hung up on any outsized reaction when Intel’s numbers release. The move tomorrow will likely be more influenced by executive commentary not only in their earnings release but also in their earnings call tonight.

The bottom line: if you want the real story on Intel’s earnings, you’ll want to stay on this blog. We’ll continue updating through the company’s earnings call. This is your number one spot for a complete analysis of Intel’s earnings. 

Intel’s earnings are expected right after the 4 p.m. closing bell. The moment earnings hit we’ll be providing live updates and analysis detailing why the stock is moving up or down.

Simply leave this page open and new updates will post automatically. 

Will Intel beat earnings tonight? Prediction markets are betting strongly that the company will exceed Wall Street’s EPS estimates.

On Polymarket, there is currently a 78% chance that Intel will beat its listed estimate of $.00 in earnings. Bear in mind that the total volume wagered in these markets is still fairly low – there’s just $11,524 currently wagered on Intel.

Also, most companies have been beating earnings this season. There were 15 companies you could wager on that reported premarket today, and 13 of them beat earnings estimates. The only misses were Blackstone and CBRE.

It’s 3:40 p.m. ET, so we’re 20 minutes from the closing bell and Intel reporting earnings.

So far today, its been a good day for Intel. Shares of the company are up 2.4% and have been steadily rising throughout the day. Overall, Intel shares are up a scorching 87% in 2025. We’ll see if tonight leads to even more gains for Intel investors.