IonQ & D-Wave Fall More than 5% Last Week While Rigetti Leads Quantum Stocks

While the S&P 500 gained +1.13% and the Nasdaq 100 added +1.14% during last week (February 17–20), quantum computing stocks mostly sat out the rally.

Four of the five names tracked here finished in the red, with only Rigetti managing a modest gain. The sector continues to trade on sentiment, and that sentiment continues to decline as investors flee to industries like consumer staples.

Last Week at a Glance

IONQ: Earnings Countdown Pressure and a 32% Monthly Hole

IonQ was the headline decliner, falling 6.48% on the week to close at $31.90. That brings the one-month loss to 34% and the year-to-date decline to nearly 29%, even as the broader market has held up.

The most immediate driver was earnings anticipation. IonQ is set to report Q4 2025 results on February 25, 2026, and traders were clearly positioning cautiously heading into the print. Analyst consensus sits at -$0.47 EPS with $40.38 million in revenue expected. That revenue figure is notable because IonQ beat the same estimate by 48% in Q3 2025, posting $39.87 million against that same $26.99 million consensus. Prediction markets are pricing in a 76% probability of an earnings beat.

So why is the stock falling if a beat looks likely? A few converging forces explain it.

First, insider selling. A Motley Fool analysis flagged that insiders across IonQ, Rigetti, and D-Wave have net-sold roughly $615 million in shares over the past year, with minimal insider buying. When the people with the most information are consistently selling, the market notices. IonQ’s own insider data shows 10 recent insider transactions, net direction: selling.

Second, the valuation overhang. IonQ trades at a market cap of $16 billion against trailing revenue that, even if Q4 matches Q3’s pace, will come in well under $150 million for the full year. That’s a price-to-sales multiple that requires near-perfect execution and a long runway of patience. Analysts carry a consensus target of $75.17, implying over 135% upside, but the stock has been moving the wrong direction for months.

RGTI: The Relative Outperformer

Rigetti was the best-performing name in this group on a relative basis, declining just -1.06% from $16.09 to $15.92 — a modest loss compared to the steeper declines across its peers. The stock did outperform its peers on a relative basis, and news flow during the week provided a mild tailwind.

On February 18, Rigetti announced it would report Q4 2025 and full-year 2025 financial results on March 4, 2026, after market close, with a conference call at 5:00 PM ET. Earnings announcement days often bring a small positioning bid as investors start building exposure ahead of the print. Analysts are projecting GAAP Q4 EPS of -$0.05 and revenue of $2.33 million.

The analyst picture for Rigetti is surprisingly bullish given the stock’s recent trajectory. The average brokerage recommendation sits at 1.58, leaning toward Strong Buy, and the consensus price target is $38.85, more than double the current price. But like IonQ, Rigetti carries a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), and insider activity shows net selling across recent transactions.

The one-month picture is sobering regardless of last week’s relative strength. Rigetti has shed nearly 33% over the past month and is down 28% year to date.

The Sector Story: Insiders Selling, Valuations Stretched

The common thread across all five names last week was the same one that has been weighing on the sector for months. Quantum computing stocks surged violently in late 2024 and early 2025 on the back of breakthrough announcements and speculative enthusiasm. Now the hangover is setting in.

D-Wave (QBTS) dropped 8.19% on the week, the steepest decline in the group, and is down nearly 31% year to date. Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) fell 6.73% and has lost 23% since January 1. Even IBM, the most diversified and least speculative name in this group, slipped 2% on the week and is down nearly 13% over the past month.

The 24/7 Wall St. Composite Sentiment Score for IONQ sits at 37.99 out of 100 (Bearish), with social sentiment particularly weak at 22. RGTI’s composite reads similarly at 34.58 (Bearish). QBTS is the outlier with a 67.91 composite (Bullish), driven by stronger social and news sentiment, though its price action last week told a different story.

The next concrete catalyst for this sector is IonQ’s earnings report on February 25. Given that prediction markets are pricing in a 76% chance of a beat, the real question is whether a beat is already priced in or whether it can finally arrest the stock’s slide. Rigetti’s March 4 report will follow closely, but bear in mind Rigetti is still closer to pre-revenue while IonQ is now generating around $40 million per quarter. That is to say, there’s a bit more focus on IonQ’s recent performance. How these two prints land will likely set the tone for the entire quantum group through the first quarter.