As of early Monday morning, shares of AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) are trading near $80 with a $29 billion market cap, yet it generated just $14.74 million in revenue last quarter while burning $363 million in operating cash flow annually. The proprietary Reddit sentiment score has collapsed from 61 (bullish) on the quarter to 22 (bearish) this week.
The slide began when AST SpaceMobile announced a $1 billion convertible senior notes offering due 2036, triggering dilution concerns. The stock has fallen 28% over the past month from a peak near $123, all while Q3 2025 earnings compounded the damage: revenue missed estimates by 27.5%, and the EPS loss of -$0.45 was nearly double analyst expectations, a concerning number to be fair.
ASTS Sentiment Collapses as Bubble Talk Moves to r/stocks
Three concrete concerns are driving the bearish pivot:
- $14.74M in quarterly revenue against a nearly $30 billion valuation
- The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate shifted 22% downward, with a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell)
- American Tower Corp (NYSE:AMT) disposed of 2.28 million shares worth roughly $159 million in December, a significant reduction from a 10% stakeholder
Commenters in the r/stocks bubble thread captured the sentiment: “ASTS is still basically pre-revenue. That 15mil was from pre-service…” Another added: “ASTS offers none of the stability of a more established company and none of the growth potential of a real moonshot anymore.”
ASTS bubble thread
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AST SpaceMobile Announces Proposed Private Offering of $1.0 Billion of Convertible Senior Notes Due 2036
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The Bull Case Still Has Numbers Behind It
Bulls point to $1.2 billion in cash, $1 billion-plus in contracted revenue commitments, and a target of 45-60 satellites deployed by the end of 2026. A mid-February rumor that Apple is testing iPhone 17 satellite-to-cell connectivity using ASTS technology briefly pushed sentiment to 72 before collapsing to 12 the same day.
Where Analysts Stand on the $29 Billion Question
Where things get murky is around the idea that nine analysts have a consensus 12-month price target of $59.37, compared to the current trading price near $80. Only two of nine maintain positive ratings, which is likely because the company is burning approximately $1 billion in free cash flow annually with no near-term path to profitability. The next real test is whether full-year 2025 results, when reported, show revenue execution in line with guidance of $50-75 million for the second half, and whether the 2026 satellite deployment stays on schedule.
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