Live: Will Snowflake (SNOW) Rally After Earnings Results?
Quick Read
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Snowflake (SNOW) delivered 29% product revenue growth last quarter reaching $1.16B in product revenue.
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Snowflake’s remaining performance obligations hit $7.88B, up 37% year over year.
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Snowflake Intelligence adoption ramped quickly, marking one of the fastest product launches in company history.
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How Snowflake Scored This Quarter
Q4 FY2026 Earnings Scorecard
With Q4 results confirmed and the stock up after-hours, here is how Snowflake graded across every key dimension.
Overall Grade: A- — A clean beat across revenue, EPS, RPO, and guidance, with accelerating AI monetization and expanding margins. The only deduction: the company remains in operating loss territory and cash declined year-over-year.
| Category | Grade | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Performance | A | $1.284B reported vs. $1.25B estimated, with product revenue up 30% YoY. |
| Earnings Beat/Miss | A | Non-GAAP EPS of $0.32 beat the $0.27 consensus. |
| Guidance Quality | A- | FY27 product revenue guided to $5.66B (+27% YoY) with a 12.5% operating margin target. |
| Margin Trends | B+ | Q4 operating margin reached 11%, showing clear operating leverage. |
| Cash Flow | B | Operating cash flow rose 35% YoY to $137.5M, though cash equivalents declined 7.65% YoY. |
| Management Confidence | A- | CEO Ramaswamy positioned Snowflake as “the cornerstone for customers’ data and AI strategies” with RPO up 42% YoY. |
Analyst consensus sits at 84.3% buy ratings with a $266 price target, well above today’s close of $169.75.
Operating Highlights
| KPI | Result |
|---|---|
| Product Revenue Growth | +30% Y/Y |
| Net Revenue Retention | 125% |
| RPO Growth | +42% Y/Y |
| $1M+ Customers | 733 (+27%) |
| Operating Margin (Q4) | 11% |
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RPO growth reaccelerated sharply
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AI usage adoption scaled materially
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Operating leverage improving
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FY27 visibility strengthened
Management Commentary
CEO Sridhar Ramaswamy:
“Snowflake sits at the center of the enterprise AI revolution.”
Management emphasized:
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Record net new customer adds
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Strong enterprise expansion
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AI monetization traction accelerating
Translation: AI is no longer just narrative — it is driving measurable consumption.
Guidance Update
Q1 FY27
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Product revenue: $1.262B–$1.267B (+27% Y/Y)
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Operating margin: 9%
FY27
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Product revenue: $5.66B (+27% Y/Y)
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Operating margin: 12.5%
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Adjusted FCF margin: 23%
Guidance confirms sustained high-20s growth with expanding margins.
More Good News for SNOW Investors
After ending the day up 5%, the stock is up another 6% after-hours.
This is a clean acceleration print. Snowflake delivered 30% product revenue growth, 42% RPO growth, and strong FY27 guidance at 27% growth — exactly what a skeptical market needed to see.
| Metric | Actual | Est. | Beat/Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.284B | $1.25B | ✅ Beat |
| Product Revenue | $1.227B | ~$1.20B* | ✅ Beat |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $0.32 | $0.27 | ✅ Beat |
| RPO | $9.77B (+42% Y/Y) | ~$9.0B* | ✅ Beat |
This is what durable momentum looks like, growth holding at 30% while forward visibility strengthens.
Prediction markets expect a SNOW earnings beat tonight
Polymarket is pricing in a 93% probability that Snowflake beats the $0.27 non-GAAP EPS consensus estimate for today’s earnings release. That confidence has been building steadily, with the “Yes” contract gaining 6% over the past week and 4.5% in the last 24 hours.
The crowd is clearly leaning bullish on the beat itself. But history offers a cautionary note: last quarter, Snowflake beat the $0.31 estimate, yet the stock still fell 14.24% the following day. The prediction market for that post-earnings move resolved entirely to “Down.”
With SNOW already down 22.6% year-to-date, investors will be watching whether a beat this time translates to an actual rally, or whether the “sell the news” pattern repeats.
Snowflake (NYSE: SNOW | SNOW Price Prediction) reports Q4 FY2026 results today after the close. The data cloud leader has delivered improving operational momentum in recent quarters, but the stock has struggled to hold gains. Tonight’s print is about whether accelerating AI adoption can translate into durable growth and a clearer path toward profitability.
Strong Operational Momentum, Skeptical Market
Last quarter, Snowflake delivered one of its stronger prints in recent memory. Product revenue reached $1.16 billion, up 29% year over year, while total revenue of $1.213 billion exceeded expectations. Remaining performance obligations rose to $7.88 billion, up 37% year over year, reinforcing forward revenue visibility.
Net revenue retention remained at 125%, reflecting continued expansion within the installed base.
Operationally, the trajectory appears constructive. Yet shares have traded lower in recent months, reflecting investor caution around enterprise software valuations and the pace at which Snowflake can translate AI-driven demand into sustained profitability.
CEO Sridhar Ramaswamy emphasized the company’s strategic positioning on the last call:
Snowflake is the cornerstone for our customers’ data and AI strategies, driving real business impact at scale.
That strategic framing is clear. The question now is execution.
Consensus Estimates
| Metric | Q4 FY2026 Estimate |
|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.25B |
| EPS (Normalized) | $0.27 |
| FY2026 Revenue | $4.65B |
| FY2027 Revenue | $5.78B |
Consensus implies continued high-20% revenue growth but only modest earnings expansion, underscoring the importance of operating leverage in the upcoming fiscal year.
AI Monetization and Margin Direction Are the Real Test
Three themes matter most tonight.
First, product revenue growth. Snowflake has accelerated from low-20% growth earlier in FY2026 to 29% in Q3. Holding that level would reinforce the narrative that consumption trends are stabilizing and improving.
Second, AI monetization. Snowflake Intelligence adoption ramped quickly last quarter, marking one of the fastest product launches in company history. Investors will look for concrete usage metrics and commentary around enterprise AI workloads. The OpenAI partnership remains a strategic lever, and any data points around customer deployments or pipeline growth will carry weight.
Third, operating discipline. Snowflake continues to generate positive operating cash flow, but GAAP profitability remains elusive. Investors will want clarity on how AI investment, infrastructure scaling, and go-to-market expansion translate into margin progression over FY2027.
Management also previously noted potential seasonal effects in Q4 and a tougher comparison entering FY2027. How leadership frames the next fiscal year may ultimately matter more than the quarter itself.
FY2027 Guidance Will Set the Tone
Snowflake has established itself as a differentiated data platform with strong positioning in enterprise AI. The structural demand story remains intact.
But the stock’s recent volatility reflects a market demanding both growth and discipline.
If FY2027 guidance demonstrates sustained product revenue expansion alongside narrowing losses and improving operating leverage, sentiment could shift meaningfully. If guidance disappoints or growth moderates, skepticism may persist despite the company’s strong competitive positioning.
Tonight is less about a single quarter and more about whether Snowflake can prove that AI-driven growth and margin expansion can coexist.
Joel South covers large-cap stocks, dividend investing, and major market trends, with a focus on earnings analysis, valuation, and turning complex data into actionable insights for investors.
He brings more than 15 years of experience as an investor and financial journalist, including 12 years at The Motley Fool, where he served as an investment analyst, Bureau Chief, and later led the Fool.com investing news desk. He has also co-hosted an investing podcast and appeared across TV and radio discussing market trends.
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