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Live Earnings: Will Dell Technologies (DELL) Spike After Q4 Results

By Joel South · Updated Feb 26, 4:14pm ET · Published Feb 26, 3:30pm ET

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FY27 Guidance — This Is What’s Moving the Stock

Dell now expects:

  • FY27 revenue: $138B–$142B (midpoint $140B), +23% YoY

  • FY27 GAAP EPS midpoint: $11.52 (+33% YoY)

  • FY27 Non-GAAP EPS midpoint: $12.90 (+25% YoY)

  • AI-Optimized Servers FY27 revenue: ~$50B (+103% YoY)

For context, management disclosed they:

  • Closed $64B in AI-optimized server orders

  • Shipped $25B during the year

  • Enter FY27 with record $43B backlog

That backlog visibility is the critical credibility bridge.

Dell Numbers Are In And They Are Good

Shares are up ~7.7% after Dell delivered a clear beat-and-raise quarter, with AI server revenue scaling sharply and FY27 guidance well ahead of prior expectations.

Metric Actual Prior Consensus* Beat / Miss
Q4 Revenue $33.4B ~$31.6B ✅ Beat
Q4 Non-GAAP EPS $3.89 ~$3.51 ✅ Beat
FY26 Revenue $113.5B ~$111.9B ✅ Beat
FY26 Non-GAAP EPS $10.30 ~$9.90 ✅ Beat

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The story so far

Dell Technologies (NYSE: DELL | DELL Price Prediction) reports its fourth-quarter and full-year fiscal 2026 results today. With an AI server backlog heading into the print, this is one of the more consequential tech earnings reports of the quarter.

A Record Backlog Meets a Margin Recovery Story

Last quarter, Dell posted revenue of $27.0 billion, a slight miss against consensus, but non-GAAP EPS of $2.59 beat estimates. The real headline was the AI server business, where management highlighted record AI server orders and significant year-to-date demand.

Since that November report, the stock has pulled back modestly. Shares are trading well below their 52-week high. The gap between where Dell trades and where analysts think it belongs remains notable.

Management guided Q4 revenue to $31.0 billion to $32.0 billion, with a GAAP EPS midpoint around $3.05. That is a meaningful step up from Q3, and it’s the number the market will hold them to tonight.

Consensus Estimates at a Glance

Metric Q4 FY26 Consensus Full-Year FY26 Consensus
Revenue $31.63B $111.85B
Non-GAAP EPS $3.51 $9.90

5 Things to Watch

  1. AI Backlog Conversion. The AI server backlog is only valuable if it ships. Last quarter, management flagged component availability as a wildcard. I’ll be watching how much of that backlog converted to revenue in Q4 and whether the new backlog figure grows or shrinks.
  2. ISG Margin Trajectory. ISG operating income improved sequentially last quarter despite the heavier AI server mix. Management said to expect further improvement in Q4. Whether that holds is a key test of the thesis.
  3. Storage Returning to Growth. Storage revenue was roughly flat year over year in Q3. Dell’s storage portfolio, including PowerScale and PowerStore, remains a higher-margin business than AI servers. A return to growth here would meaningfully support the overall margin story.
  4. PC Refresh Cycle Timing. Management acknowledged the PC refresh keeps pushing out, with Windows 10 end-of-life driving eventual demand but enterprise buyers moving slowly. Worth monitoring is whether commercial PC growth accelerated in Q4 or whether the refresh is still lagging.
  5. Full-Year Guidance Confirmation. Dell guided FY26 revenue to roughly $111.7 billion at the midpoint. Tonight’s Q4 print will either confirm that target was achievable or reveal whether component timing issues created a shortfall. Management’s tone on FY27 will matter just as much as the FY26 close.

Dell has spent the last year building one of the more compelling AI infrastructure businesses outside of pure-play chip designers. But the stock’s valuation suggests the market remains cautious about how cleanly backlog converts into durable profit growth. Tonight’s report is Dell’s opportunity to close that credibility gap.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Joel South

Joel South covers large-cap stocks, dividend investing, and major market trends, with a focus on earnings analysis, valuation, and turning complex data into actionable insights for investors.

He brings more than 15 years of experience as an investor and financial journalist, including 12 years at The Motley Fool, where he served as an investment analyst, Bureau Chief, and later led the Fool.com investing news desk. He has also co-hosted an investing podcast and appeared across TV and radio discussing market trends.

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