JPMorgan’s Top Short Ideas, 5 Weeks Later: Were They Right?

By Trey Thoelcke Published Mar 4, 7:55AM EST

Quick Read

Joby Aviation (JOBY) fell 26.1% to $9.76 after a $1.2B dilutive offering; Fortinet (FTNT) down 1.51% to $81.10 with $2.21B free cash flow; Transocean (RIG) up 47.9% to $6.11 on a $5.8B Valaris merger.
JPMorgan’s short call on Joby Aviation worked due to cash burn and dilution pressure, Fortinet remains flat despite record cash flow, and Transocean surged on a Valaris merger and improved fleet utilization.
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JPMorgan’s Top Short Ideas, 5 Weeks Later: Were They Right? — © ipopba / iStock via Getty Images

Five weeks after JPMorgan included Fortinet (NASDAQ: FTNT), Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY), and Transocean (NYSE: RIG) among its top short ideas on January 23, 2026, the scorecard is mixed. One call landed cleanly, one is still developing, and one has blown up entirely.

Joby: Bears Win This Round

Joby Aviation has been the clearest vindication of the short thesis. The stock has fallen 26.1% year-to-date, dropping from $13.47 at the time of JPMorgan’s call to $9.76 as of March 3. On February 27, 2026, JPMorgan formalized its view by maintaining an Underweight rating and reducing the price target to $7, citing ongoing losses and cash burn despite a Q4 earnings beat.

The concerns are well-founded. Short interest surged 24.02% to 75.34 million shares, representing 10.17% of float — above the peer group average of 9.13%. A $1.2 billion equity offering priced at $11.35 per share in late February added dilution pressure, and the stock confirmed a technical death cross. The analyst consensus average target of $12.56 is well above the current price, but this figure is skewed by a few bullish outliers. JPMorgan’s $7 target and a Sell rating from Deutsche Bank anchor the bearish end.

Operationally, Joby isn’t without progress: 94% of means of compliance accepted by the FAA, Dubai passenger flights targeted for 2026, and a $500 million Toyota partnership provide long-term credibility. But with about $475 million in annual cash burn and 2026 guidance calling for $340 million to $370 million in first-half cash usage alone, the math remains punishing. For retail investors, the stock is a speculative bet on FAA certification timing, not a near-term value play.

Fortinet: Thesis Developing Slowly

Fortinet has barely moved since JPMorgan’s call—down roughly 1.51% from $81.71 to $81.10—masking a more volatile underlying story. The stock dropped to a 52-week low of $70.12 during the period before recovering.

The bearish thesis is gaining sell-side traction. Wells Fargo initiated coverage on March 3, 2026, with an Underweight rating and a $64 price target, arguing that current expectations are tied to a temporary firewall refresh cycle and that Fortinet’s hardware-centric model faces structural displacement from SASE. Freedom Capital Markets downgraded on valuation grounds in late February. The analyst consensus of 29 Holds, two Sells, and one Strong Sell out of 42 ratings reflects a market that sees limited upside at current levels, with an average target of $89.06.

Against that, Fortinet delivered: Q4 EPS of $0.81 beat estimates, Unified SASE billings grew 40% YoY, and full-year free cash flow hit a record $2.21 billion. BMO raised its target to $95 post-earnings. The short thesis here isn’t broken—it’s just playing out more slowly. Margin pressure, hardware refresh risk, and a Russian AI-assisted breach affecting 600+ FortiGate firewalls across 55 countries keep the narrative complicated.

Transocean: Short Call Crushed

Transocean has been the most decisive counter to JPMorgan’s bearish view. The stock is up 22.7% over the past month and 47.9% year-to-date, trading at $6.11. Two events drove the reversal: a $5.8 billion all-stock merger with Valaris approved by both boards on February 9, 2026, and Q4 earnings showing fleet utilization jumping to 85.8% from 66.8% a year earlier.

Susquehanna raised its price target to $7.50, and Morgan Stanley moved its target to $5.00. The analyst consensus target stands at $5.64, which is now below the current price. That suggests the market has run ahead of Wall Street’s revised expectations. The combined Transocean-Valaris entity would carry a backlog of approximately $10 billion to $11 billion with over $200 million in anticipated cost synergies. Risks remain real: the EIA projects WTI crude below $60 through 2027, short interest has surged to 16.57% of float, and the stock has pulled back 6.6% in the past week. With the stock trading above consensus, disciplined investors may want to wait for either a pullback or merger clarity before adding exposure.

About the Author Trey Thoelcke →

Trey has been an editor and author at 24/7 Wall St. for more than a decade, where he has published thousands of articles analyzing corporate earnings, dividend stocks, short interest, insider buying, private equity, and market trends. His comprehensive coverage spans the full spectrum of financial markets, from blue-chip stalwarts to emerging growth companies.

Beyond 24/7 Wall St., Trey has created and edited financial content for Benzinga and AOL's BloggingStocks, contributing additional hundreds of articles to the investment community. He previously oversaw the 24/7 Climate Insights site, managing editorial operations and content strategy, and currently oversees and creates content for My Investing News.

Trey's editorial expertise extends across multiple publishing environments. He served as production editor at Dearborn Financial Publishing and development editor at Kaplan, where he helped shape financial education materials. Earlier in his career, he worked as a writer-producer at SVE. His freelance editing portfolio includes work for prestigious clients such as Sage Publications, Rand McNally, the Institute for Supply Management, the American Library Association, Eggplant Literary Productions, and Spiegel.

Outside of financial journalism, Trey writes fiction and has been an active member of the writing community for years, overseeing a long-running critique group and moderating workshop sessions at regional conventions. He lives with his family in an old house in the Midwest.