Live: Will Okta Beat Q4 Earnings After the Bell Tonight?
Live Updates
Key Operating Highlights
One nuance: cash flow margin was still excellent, but FCF margin fell from 42% to 33% YoY, which may also be weighing on the immediate reaction.
| KPI | Q4 Result | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +11% YoY | Solid but not re-accelerating |
| RPO | $4.827B (+15% YoY) | Backlog strengthening |
| cRPO | $2.513B (+12% YoY) | Bookings momentum held up |
| Non-GAAP Op Margin | 26% | Efficiency remains strong |
| Free Cash Flow | $252M (33% margin) | Still elite, but down YoY margin-wise |
| Cash & Investments | $2.553B | Balance sheet flexibility |
Guidance Update
FY2027 Guidance
| Metric | Guidance | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.170B–$3.190B | 9% YoY growth |
| Non-GAAP Op Margin | 25%–26% | Stable-ish full-year |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $3.74–$3.82 | Above FY26’s $3.50 |
| Free Cash Flow | $850–$880M | 27%–28% margin |
Key callouts from guidance:
-
Okta is accelerating the shift of professional services to partners, creating about a 1-point headwind to total revenue growth.
-
Free cash flow guidance includes about a 1-point headwind from lower interest income tied to repurchases, note settlement intent, and rates.
Earnings Are In and Stock Is Down
Okta beat on the headline numbers and delivered better-than-feared bookings metrics, but the stock is slipping because FY2027 guidance stays “prudent” and margin guidance steps down near-term.
Earnings Scorecard
| Metric | Actual | Estimate | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $761M | $748–$750M | ✅ Beat |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $0.90 | $0.84–$0.85 | ✅ Beat |
| cRPO | $2.513B (+12% YoY) | $2.445–$2.450B guide (prior) | ✅ Above |
| Non-GAAP Op Margin | 26% | ~25% implied | ✅ Beat |
The quarter itself was strong: revenue +11%, cRPO +12%, and margin upside. But the market is reacting to what comes next: management is guiding FY27 to 9% revenue growth and calling out services mix changes, which keeps the “re-acceleration” narrative on ice for now.
My Focus For Tonight's Earnings
1. Revenue vs. $748–$750M
The bar is tight to guidance. A clean beat supports stabilization in the identity space.
2. EPS vs. $0.84–$0.85
Prediction markets heavily expect a beat. A miss would shock positioning.
3. cRPO Growth
Guided to ~9%. If growth accelerates above that, it signals bookings momentum is stronger than feared.
4. Non-GAAP Operating Margin (25% implied)
Margin upside could be the real catalyst tonight. Investors want proof the business is scaling efficiently.
5. AI Agent Identity Monetization
Any quantified traction around Auth0 for AI Agents changes the forward growth story.
6. FY2027 Guidance Tone
This is the biggest lever. After raising FY26 multiple times, does management open FY27 with confidence or caution? That determines the stock reaction more than Q4 numbers.
Where Will Okta Guide Tonight
Wall Street is watching closely, and prediction markets currently assign only a 38.25% probability to an EPS beat above the $0.85 consensus estimate, a sharp reversal from the 88.5% beat probability traders assigned just yesterday.
The key number investors want is FY27 revenue guidance. Bullish signals would include top-line guidance implying acceleration above the current 11% YoY growth and cRPO growth reaccelerating above the current 13% YoY rate. Bearish signals: FY27 guidance below 10% growth or a return of cautious macro language, which management notably reintroduced in Q3 after briefly removing it in Q2.
Okta is down 33% over the past 52 weeks. It has been a slog for just about every software stock.
Okta Shares Flat Today
It’s been a generally good day for tech stocks, but Okta shares have given up their gains in the afternoon. As of 3:30 p.m., shares are flat on the day while the broader Nasdaq is up more than 1%.
Okta (Nasdaq: OKTA | OKTA Price Prediction) reports its fourth-quarter fiscal year 2026 results after the market closes tonight, March 4, 2026. Wall Street’s expectations are closely aligned with management’s own guidance, with consensus estimates pointing to non-GAAP EPS of $0.84–$0.85 and revenue of $748–$750M, representing roughly 10% year-over-year growth.
Estimates at a Glance
| Metric | Q4 FY2026 Estimate | Q4 FY2025 Actual | YoY Growth | FY2026 Full Year | FY2025 Full Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $748–$750M | $682M | ~10% | $2.906–$2.908B | $2.610B |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $0.84–$0.85 | $0.78 | ~8–9% | $3.43–$3.44 | $2.81 |
A Stock Under Pressure Heading In
Last quarter, Okta delivered a clean beat. Revenue of $742M topped estimates of $730.4M, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.82 beat the $0.7566 consensus by over 8%. Free cash flow came in at $211M, up 37% year-over-year. Shares popped roughly 5% after-hours on the results. Since then, the stock has given it all back and then some, falling 14.88% year-to-date and sitting at $73.61 as of today.
What to Watch Tonight
- FY2027 guidance tone. This is the most important number on the call. After raising full-year guidance three consecutive times in FY2026, investors need to see whether management opens FY2027 with confidence or retreats to the “prudent” conservatism that defined early FY2026 guidance.
- cRPO growth vs. the guided 9%. Management guided cRPO to $2.445–$2.450B, a deceleration from Q3’s 13% growth. A beat here would signal bookings momentum is holding up despite macro headwinds.
- AI agent identity traction. CEO Todd McKinnon called out the Auth0 for AI Agents launch last quarter, saying “AI agents are redefining how organizations work, and Okta is key to securing this technology transformation.” I’ll be listening for any early commercial signals around that product.
- Operating margin. Q4 guidance implies a non-GAAP operating margin of ~25%. With prediction markets pricing in a 95.5% probability of an EPS beat, the bar is set high. Margin upside could be the real catalyst tonight.
Eric Bleeker has been investing for more than 20 years. He began his career working at Microsoft before joining Motley Fool, one of the largest publishers of financial research. In his 15 years at Motley Fool Eric served as the General Manager for Fool.com and led coverage in the Technology & Telecom sector. In addition, he was a featured columnist and has hosted dozens of investing seminars attended by more than a million total investors. Eric has more than 1,000 financial bylines to his name and has been featured in The Wall Street Journal, CNBC, Fox Business, and many other leading publications. He is currently focused on artificial intelligence investing and is a CFA Charterholoder.
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