Live: Will Rubrik Crush Q1 Earnings Tonight and Continue Its 33% 1-Month Rally?

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Rubrik's FY27 Guidance Will Likely Drive the Stock's Reaction Tonight

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Guidance Will Drive Tonight’s Reaction

With shares up 37.17% over the past month, the bar for tonight is likely going to be set by the forward outlook. Management guided for Q1 FY27 revenue of $365M to $367M and full-year FY27 revenue of $1.597B to $1.607B, with subscription ARR of $1.829B to $1.839B and free cash flow of $265M to $275M.

The pattern for Rubrik is typically conservative guidance, followed by large beats. Revenue topped consensus by 6.94% to 10.31% across every FY26 quarter.

Bullish: FY27 revenue raised above $1.61B, FCF above $275M, and net new ARR accelerating beyond Q4’s record $115M from Agent Cloud traction.

Bearish: a reiterated FY27 guide, softer net new ARR, or any hint of elongating sales cycles.

Tonight's Q1 Earnings Could Finally Change Rubrik's Story

44 minutes ago

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Rubrik has done almost everything investors could ask for since going public. The company has beaten Wall Street expectations in each of its four reported quarters, revenue growth has remained strong, and management continues to move closer to profitability. Yet the stock has still struggled to hold post-earnings gains, falling an average of 7.4% in the week after results despite the consistent execution.

Tonight’s Q1 earnings report may be the quarter that breaks that pattern. Investors are increasingly focused on whether Rubrik can translate strong growth into meaningful earnings leverage.

Management has already guided toward a profitability inflection later this year, and a stronger-than-expected FY2027 outlook would reinforce the idea that Rubrik is evolving from a fast-growing cybersecurity company into a durable software business capable of generating significant cash flow.

The setup is particularly interesting because the stock has already recovered back above $79. Investors will likely want to see higher guidance, stronger subscription growth, and increased confidence around profitability. If management delivers, the conversation could quickly shift from whether Rubrik deserves a rebound to how much higher the stock should trade as estimates move up.

Investors are watching Rubrik (NYSE: RBRK | RBRK Price Prediction) ahead of Q1 FY2027 results due today, June 4, expected after the bell at 4:05 PM ET. After a 37.17% one-month rally, this report needs to validate the AI-era cybersecurity story management has been selling.

From 52-Week Low to Momentum Stock in Ten Weeks

Last quarter set a high bar. Rubrik posted $377.68M in revenue, up 46.3% year over year and beating consensus by 10.31%. Non-GAAP EPS landed at $0.04 versus a -$0.11 estimate. Subscription ARR reached $1.46 billion, with a record $115 million in net new ARR.

The market did not reward it. Shares fell to a 52-week low of $46 on March 28, 2026, prompting director Mark McLaughlin to buy 10,638 shares on the open market at $47.21. Since then, the stock has rebounded to $79.46, with options markets pricing in a ~12% implied move.

Consensus and Company Guidance

Net New ARR and Agent Cloud Are the Tests

Tonight, I will be watching Rubrik’s net new subscription ARR more than the headline numbers. CFO Kiran Kumar Choudary cautioned on the Q4 call that Q1 is a tougher year-over-year comparison, and analysts pressed on whether Q4’s record $115M included pull-forward demand. A clean sequential earnings report would silence that concern fast.

Investors will also look at the identity business, which crossed 900 customers in Q4, more than doubling from 400 in Q3. Over 50% of Microsoft 365 bookings were attached to it last quarter. Any deceleration could crack the multi-product narrative.

Then there is Rubrik Agent Cloud, made generally available just weeks before the Q4 call. CEO Bipul Sinha framed it bluntly: “Agents promise 100x productivity but introduce 100x risk.” Investors will look for early POC conversions and named Fortune 500 wins. Additionally, analysts will be tracking non-GAAP gross margin, which expanded to 83.7% in Q4, and the subscription ARR contribution margin, guided to ~13% for the full year.

Polymarket traders currently give Rubrik a 94% probability of beating estimates, so the bar is set high heading into tonight’s earnings.