Why Cisco Is Nothing Like Its Dot-Com Self — And Could Hit $90 by 2027

Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) has been pulled into an uncomfortable comparison lately. Investor Michael Burry drew parallels between Nvidia’s supply commitments and Cisco’s behavior before the dot-com bust, casting a shadow over Cisco. Its shares are up just 2.5% year-to-date, trading around $78.96. But the comparison misses something important: today’s Cisco is a fundamentally different business. Here’s how it could reach nearly $90 a share by early 2027.

Wall Street Sees Limited but Real Upside

The analyst consensus price target sits at $88.81, over 12% above current levels. Cisco has beaten non-GAAP EPS estimates in each of its past eight consecutive quarters, including beats of $0.94 vs. $0.91 and $1.00 vs. $0.98 in recent periods, suggesting full-year results will likely exceed the FY2026 guidance midpoint of $4.15 in non-GAAP EPS. Revenue growth is accelerating, with the most recent quarter posting 10% year-over-year gains and networking revenue up 21% year-over-year.

The Path to the Analyst Consensus Target

For a company generating $342.9 billion in market cap with a 23.7% return on equity, a move to $90 represents meaningful but achievable upside. What could push Cisco to a multiyear high?

• AI infrastructure demand is accelerating. Cisco booked $2.1 billion in AI infrastructure orders from hyperscalers in Q2 FY2026 alone. Its Nexus HyperFabric technology is deployed in AI factories powered by Nvidia Blackwell Ultra GPUs, positioning it as a direct beneficiary of the buildout wave.
• Splunk cross-sell is just beginning. The Splunk integration has delivered profitability ahead of expectations, with security and observability cross-selling opening new enterprise relationships. CEO Chuck Robbins has noted that total ARR reached $31.4 billion, up 22%, with product ARR growth of 41%.
• Subscription revenue is now the majority of the business. Subscription revenue represented 56% of total revenue in the most recent period. That is a dramatic shift from the hardware-heavy Cisco of 2000 that Burry’s comparison evokes.
• Shareholder returns signal balance sheet confidence. The quarterly dividend was raised to $0.42 per share, with $10.8 billion in remaining buyback authorization. Cisco returned $3.0 billion to shareholders in Q2 FY2026 alone.
• Estimate revisions are trending upward. Full-year FY2026 guidance was raised to $61.2 billion to $61.7 billion in revenue, which would be Cisco’s strongest revenue year ever.

The Bottom Line

Cisco shares have gained 24.4% over the past year and 75.0% over the past five years. Getting from $78.46 to $88.81 is aligned with where Wall Street consensus already points — well within the range of strong years. The stock’s 52-week high of $88.19 shows the market has already been willing to price shares near that level.

Cisco is not the dot-com era company Burry’s comparison implies. It generates substantial recurring software revenue, is embedding itself in the AI infrastructure stack alongside Nvidia, pays a growing dividend, and has beaten earnings estimates with remarkable consistency. Risks are real: operating cash flow declined significantly year-over-year, the security segment is contracting, and tariff uncertainty adds noise. But with AI order momentum building, the path to $90 is grounded in fundamentals rather than hype.