FLY vs. Rocket Lab: Which Stock Has the Fuel to Break Orbit?

The Artemis II launch has been sending back some breathtaking images of late. If you haven’t yet seen the sharp images of the moon, an eclipse, an “Earthset,” and more, I’d encourage you to do so. They might even give you goosebumps. As the mission enters its latter stages and the crew heads back to Earth, the excitement and sheer awe seem unlikely to fade. Any way you look at it, there’s been increased interest in space exploration, rockets, and what the future could hold for the private companies with out-of-this-world ambitions.

2026 is shaping up to be a big year for space

Elon Musk and SpaceX (which recently acquired his AI company xAI) are going to have a big moment this year once the $1.75-2.0 trillion firm hits the public market. And while SpaceX is the heavyweight champion of space with the most success and the visionary founder who’s not afraid of innovating at the very frontier, I wouldn’t bet against the other space companies, some of which allow investors to punch a ticket today. 

Of course, SpaceX is worth a premium. No doubt about that. But, as I’ve noted in a prior piece, things have the potential to get a bit obscene once SpaceX has its much-anticipated IPO. It could prove difficult to get a ticket at a reasonable price. And, in that regard, perhaps considering some of the market’s other space plays could make a lot of sense.

In this piece, we’ll look at a pair of space plays that I think are worth a second look as investor interest in space looks to enter the exosphere and beyond later this year. Whether it’s Artemis, SpaceX, the fast rise of satellite connectivity, future moon landings, or the ambitious goal of reaching Mars, I do think space plays could become premier growth plays, especially for the firms that follow in the lead of SpaceX and Musk.

Of course, the stakes are as high as ever when it comes to space. There’s a lot of money on the line, and, in that regard, the space plays are going to be the kinds of stocks that only speculative growth investors would consider buying. If you can handle the shock, though, perhaps there is a chance for firms beyond SpaceX to break orbit.

Firefly Aerospace

If you’ve still got the appetite for hyper-growth, Firefly Aerospace (NASDAQ:FLY | FLY Price Prediction) might be the high-beta space play to watch. The firm is aiming to go to the moon with its Blue Ghost 2 Mission, which might happen by year’s end. Also, the partnership with Northrop Grumman (NYSE:NOC), which invested $50 million into the space startup last year, for work on a new medium-lift rocket, might help the firm become a serious player in the corporate space race.

Even if there’s a ton of work to be done, with a lot of risk on the table (a lot can go wrong with launches and landings), the firm seems to be following in the footsteps of SpaceX. The only question is whether they can execute.

With a helping hand from a defense titan in Northrop Grumman, perhaps Firefly Aerospace remains a name to watch very closely. Of course, the $5.6 billion mid-cap name is going to be hyper-volatile, so be ready for turbulence. With shares up 50% year to date, the technicals are starting to look good after a tough 2025.

Rocket Lab Corp.

Rocket Lab Corp. (NASDAQ:RKLB) is a more mature space play with a nearly $38 billion market cap. The stock has already gained more than 1,600% in two years, so the latest 27% slide only looks like a small blip. While there’s no telling how deep the correction could drag the shares, many analysts are still upbeat on the stock, especially as the firm sets its sights on the opportunity to be had in satellites. With its medium-lift Neutron rocket that’s also gaining traction, there’s potential for Rocket Lab to emerge as a credible rival to SpaceX in the future. 

With Citizens’ Trevor Walsh setting his sights on $85 per share, citing growth across the board, I do think that Rocket Lab might be the space stock that has what it takes to outpace SpaceX. If Rocket Lab can stick the landing with future projects, there might be more room to the upside. Of course, the name remains a risk-on play that only risk-seeking growth investors should dare jump aboard.

Either way, both Firefly Aerospace and Rocket Lab stand out as great bets. Perhaps diversifying into both names could be the way to diversify the high degree of execution risk.