One Year Later: Our ‘No-Brainer’ Rigetti Call Doubled. What to Do Now.

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By Trey Thoelcke Published

Quick Read

  • One year ago, 24/7 Wall St. published a buy-the-dip call on Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI), and the stock has almost doubled since.

  • The bull case still has legs, but trimming to a house-money position is defensible.

  • It sounds nuts, but SoFi is giving new active invest users up to $1,000 in stock for a limited time, and all it takes is a $50 deposit to get started. See for yourself (Sponsor)
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One Year Later: Our ‘No-Brainer’ Rigetti Call Doubled. What to Do Now.

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One year ago, 24/7 Wall St. published a buy-the-dip call on Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI). The thesis rested on Nvidia’s pivot into quantum, real-time error correction on the 84-qubit Ankaa-2, the December 2024 launch of Ankaa-3 with 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity, a $100 million equity raise, and a planned modular 36-qubit system built from interconnected 9-qubit chips.

The One-Year Scoreboard

The call almost doubled. Here is the report card:

Metric Value
Price on April 14, 2025 (article date) $8.86
Price on April 22, 2026 $18.01
Trailing 1-year +91.2%
YTD 2026 −21.4%
52-week range $8.35 to $58.15

Most of the thesis pillars played out. Rigetti released Cepheus-1-36Q in Q2 2025 (the modular chiplet system), hit 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity at 28 nanoseconds on a prototype, and stacked partnerships with Riverlane, Nvidia, Quanta Computer, and QphoX. Quanta’s $35 million private placement closed, and CEO Subodh Kulkarni framed the progress bluntly: “In 2025, we made great progress across fidelity, scale, and system architecture.” Commercial traction followed, including an $8.4 million C-DAC order for a 108-qubit system and $5.7 million in Novera purchase orders.

The stock peaked at about $58.15 before retracing. Valuation is the culprit: a $5.8 billion market cap sits on $7.09 million in full-year 2025 revenue (down from $10.79 million in 2024) and a $216.21 million net loss. The price-to-sales ratio is 855. Q4 revenue missed consensus by 21.68%, and shares fell 18.44% in the 30 days following the Q4 print. Reddit sentiment whipsawed from euphoria in late October 2025 (scores 61 to 81) to very bearish by early December (12 to 18) on insider-selling narratives.

What to Do Now

The bull case still has legs. Rigetti closed 2025 with $589.83 million in cash and investments, the roadmap targets a 1,000+ qubit system by end of 2027, and nine of 12 analysts rate it Buy or better, with a $30.58 target. The bear case is equally real: revenue shrinking, losses widening, and dilution from 171.9 million to 298.3 million shares. For investors who doubled up, trimming to a house-money position is defensible research guidance. For new money, the current 47% drawdown from highs is a better entry than October 2025, but size it for a 1.83 beta stock that trades on narrative, not earnings.

 

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About the Author Trey Thoelcke →

Trey has been an editor and author at 24/7 Wall St. for more than a decade, where he has published thousands of articles analyzing corporate earnings, dividend stocks, short interest, insider buying, private equity, and market trends. His comprehensive coverage spans the full spectrum of financial markets, from blue-chip stalwarts to emerging growth companies.

Beyond 24/7 Wall St., Trey has created and edited financial content for Benzinga and AOL's BloggingStocks, contributing additional hundreds of articles to the investment community. He previously oversaw the 24/7 Climate Insights site, managing editorial operations and content strategy, and currently oversees and creates content for My Investing News.

Trey's editorial expertise extends across multiple publishing environments. He served as production editor at Dearborn Financial Publishing and development editor at Kaplan, where he helped shape financial education materials. Earlier in his career, he worked as a writer-producer at SVE. His freelance editing portfolio includes work for prestigious clients such as Sage Publications, Rand McNally, the Institute for Supply Management, the American Library Association, Eggplant Literary Productions, and Spiegel.

Outside of financial journalism, Trey writes fiction and has been an active member of the writing community for years, overseeing a long-running critique group and moderating workshop sessions at regional conventions. He lives with his family in an old house in the Midwest.

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