Roughly a year ago, 24/7 Wall St. ran a piece titled Forget UnitedHealth. Cardinal Health Is the Best Healthcare Stock to Buy Right Now, arguing that Cardinal Health (NYSE: CAH | CAH Price Prediction) was the safer healthcare bet while UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH) reeled from a Department of Justice probe, a leadership shake-up, and a 50% drawdown. Twelve months later, the question for a retirement-focused investor is sharper: which one should you actually own today?
The honest answer requires grading the original call and then asking what the next year looks like. We’ll judge both names on past 12-month performance, recent momentum, and forward analyst views.
Round 1: 12-Month Total Return
The contrarian trade won. From the original article’s publication on May 29, 2025, through May 11, 2026, UnitedHealth returned 35.2%, climbing from $296.80 to $401.16. Cardinal Health, the recommended pick, returned 21.8%, moving from $153.00 to $186.35. Both produced solid gains, yet the “buy the wreck” trade in UnitedHealth beat the “ride the leader” trade in Cardinal Health by a meaningful margin on a total-return basis.
Cardinal Health delivered solid gains. UnitedHealth simply rebounded harder once CEO Stephen Hemsley’s turnaround took hold. Winner: UnitedHealth.
Round 2: Recent Momentum
The trend lines have inverted on shorter windows. UnitedHealth posted a 27.0% gain over the past month and is up 20.9% year-to-date, fueled by a Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $7.23, versus the $6.61 consensus estimate, and a raised full-year outlook calling for adjusted EPS above $18.25. The medical cost ratio improved 90 basis points to 83.9%, the central data point bears had been hammering.
Cardinal Health has gone the other way. The stock is down 10.7% over the past month and down 6.6% year-to-date, even after Q3 FY26 produced a non-GAAP EPS beat of $3.17 against $2.79. The market punished a 2.09% revenue miss, a 30.27% year-over-year operating income decline, and a $184 million goodwill impairment in Navista and ION. Winner: UnitedHealth.
Round 3: Forward Analyst View
Here the script flips. Cardinal Health screens better on the upside scoreboard. The Wall Street consensus target is $245.27, implying material upside, with an analyst mix of three Strong Buy, 12 Buy, two Hold, and zero Sell ratings (88% bullish). The 24/7 Factor target of $231.18 implies 24.0% upside, and management has now raised FY26 non-GAAP EPS guidance to $10.70 to $10.80, or 30% to 31% growth.
UnitedHealth’s setup is tighter. The consensus target is $387.27, which is less than the current share price, and the 24/7 Factor target of $437.34 implies 9.1% upside. Coverage is still positive (82% bullish), but the rally has eaten much of the cushion, and the DOJ Medicare actions and a 965,000-member Medicare Advantage decline remain live overhangs. Winner: Cardinal Health.
The Verdict
The original 24/7 Wall St. call to forget UnitedHealth aged poorly on the headline question. UnitedHealth won the trailing 12 months and the past 30 days. Acknowledging that directly matters more than defending the past pick.
For new money today, the decision splits clearly by investor profile. For retirement investors who want larger scale, a heavier dividend (UnitedHealth paid out $2.0 billion in Q1 2026 alone), and exposure to a turnaround already validated by results, UnitedHealth lines up with that profile. Retirement investors with a slightly longer horizon and a tolerance for near-term drawdown will find that Cardinal Health fits the brief. The analyst community is more bullish, the implied upside is wider, EPS growth guidance is faster, and a beta of 0.54 keeps portfolio volatility contained.
On a risk-adjusted basis, the setup currently favors Cardinal Health: UnitedHealth has already completed much of its rebound, while Cardinal Health screens with wider implied upside and faster EPS growth guidance.
Top Gaining Stocks
Top Losing Stocks