Grocery and Restaurant Prices Post Biggest Jump Since 2022

Grocery prices jumped 0.5% in April and restaurant menu prices climbed 0.7%, the biggest monthly moves in either category since late 2025. Before that, you would have to go back to 2022 to find a hotter print.

The April CPI report, released Tuesday by the BLS, showed headline inflation running at 3.8% year over year, up from 3.3% in March, the highest reading since 2023. Core CPI accelerated to 2.8%. Energy alone drove more than 40% of the monthly increase, as the Iran war and the standstill in the Strait of Hormuz keep bleeding into food, logistics, and dining costs.

The K-Shaped Squeeze

The personal savings rate fell to 3.6% in March, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment hit its lowest reading dating back to 1952. Kraft Heinz (NASDAQ:KHC | KHC Price Prediction) CEO Steve Cahillane told Bloomberg lower-income shoppers are “literally running out of money at the end of the month.” McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) CEO Chris Kempczinski warned “the pressures there are going to continue.” Whirlpool (NYSE:WHR) CEO Marc Bitzer said the appliance industry is seeing a decline on par with the financial crisis. Whirlpool shares are down 41.34% year to date.

The Profit Angle

The barbell trade is back. Walmart (NYSE:WMT) has captured share across income tiers, with Walmart U.S. comp sales up 4.6% and the stock up 18.48% year to date. Its earnings report later this month is the next bellwether. Meanwhile, Kraft Heinz is committing $600 million to defend volumes that keep slipping. Watch the ceasefire, gasoline pass-through, and a Fed boxed in by sticky inflation and a still-resilient labor market.