SpaceX is targeting an IPO valuation near $1.75 trillion against total revenue of roughly $18 billion. That gap is a major part of the SpaceX investment thesis. To justify it, public investors need to believe in something far larger than today’s launch business and Starlink subscriber base.
SpaceX’s S-1 filing outlines what that looks like in a section titled “Future Markets.” Some might claim that it reads like a 100-year industrial roadmap for away-from-Earth human civilization, rather than a near-term operating plan.
The Near-Term Tier: Plausible Within a Decade
The first tier depends on SpaceX’s Starship reaching commercial scale. The filing positions point-to-point terrestrial travel, space tourism, and in-orbit manufacturing as opportunities Starship can unlock once payload economics improve.
SpaceX expects Starship V3 to carry a payload of 100 metric tons, with later generations potentially reaching 200 metric tons. Management believes Starship can eventually reduce the cost to reach orbit by 99% or more relative to existing vehicles.
The 100-Year Tier: Industries That Don’t Exist Yet
The longer-dated list is where SpaceX’s filing turns philosophical. The S-1 states that industries including in-orbit manufacturing, passenger transport to the Moon, an established human presence or gateway hub on the Moon, passenger and cargo transport to Mars, energy production on the Moon or Mars, manufacturing capabilities on the Moon or Mars, and asteroid mining do not exist today.
That’s SpaceX essentially saying, in its own prospectus, that a meaningful portion of its addressable market has yet to be invented. The Moon is framed as a stepping stone toward Mars, with interplanetary industrialization at the far end of the timeline.
The Capital Intensity Reality Check
Building toward those markets demands enormous capital. SpaceX spent $3,004 million on Starship R&D in 2025 and another $930 million in Q1 2026 alone.
SpaceX’s Space segment posted Q1 revenue of $619 million, a $662 million loss from operations, and Adjusted EBITDA of negative $351 million. The 100 year plan costs serious money long before any of these distant markets generate revenue.
The Third Segment Most Coverage Misses
Most reporting frames SpaceX as a launch-and-internet company. The S-1 actually breaks the business into three segments: Space, Connectivity, and AI, with the AI segment built around the recently acquired xAI and the Grok model.
That AI segment generated revenue of $818 million in Q1 with a loss from operations of $2,469 million. Capital expenditures for AI hit $7,723 million in the quarter, signaling SpaceX is positioning as a diversified technology platform spanning launch, broadband, and AI.
The Honest Read for Investors
SpaceX’s S-1 risk language is refreshingly direct. The filing warns that the manner in which they emerge, including the timing of commercialization, the scale and pace of adoption, and the applicable technical, regulatory, geopolitical and economic frameworks may differ materially from our current expectations, and that the company may need to modify, delay, or abandon certain of our business plans.
A $1.75 trillion valuation requires belief that SpaceX will create entirely new markets at civilizational scale. That’s a philosophical question about humanity’s next century, far more than a spreadsheet exercise. Whether to underwrite that vision is a question each investor must answer on their own terms.
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