A golden cross, when the 50-day simple moving average climbs above the 200-day SMA, is one of the more closely watched technical signals on Wall Street. For Mondelez International (NASDAQ: MDLZ | MDLZ Price Prediction), the snack maker behind Oreo, Cadbury, and Toblerone, that crossover is now tantalizingly close.
Where the Moving Averages Sit Today
As of May 21, 2026, Mondelez closed at $61.50, well above both key trendlines. The 50-day SMA stands at 58.57 and is climbing, having moved up from 57.97 on May 11. The 200-day SMA stands at 58.15 and is drifting lower, down from 60.12 in late February. With the short-term line rising and the long-term line declining, the spread has narrowed to roughly four-tenths of a point. A continued move higher, supported by the stock’s 9.6% one-month gain and 14.3% year-to-date advance, could trigger the cross very soon.
The Cocoa Catalyst
Cocoa has been the single largest drag on margins. FY2025 operating income fell 44.08%, and net income fell 46.84%, with Q3 2025 marking peak costs of the year. CEO Dirk Van de Put told investors he was “encouraged by recent moderation in cocoa prices, as well as promising signs for a strong cocoa crop this fall.” Sustained relief is the most powerful lever for re-rating the stock.
Emerging Markets and Pricing Power
In Q1 2026, the engine was working. AMEA revenue grew 14.3%, Latin America 12.1%, and Europe 9.0%, while North America inched up 0.5%. Emerging Markets organic growth of 6.3% came with positive volume/mix of +0.5pp, an important signal that elasticity is improving as pricing decelerates to 3.5pp from 9.9pp in Q4.
Earnings, Cash, and Sentiment
The first quarter delivered EPS of $0.67, versus $0.6079 expected, a 10.22% beat. Revenue of $10.08 billion was up 8.24% year over year. Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance for flat to 2% organic revenue growth, flat to 5% adjusted EPS growth, and roughly $3 billion in free cash flow, with an expected 2.0% FX tailwind.
Wall Street is generally positive: an average analyst target of $67.20 sits above the current quote, with five Strong Buys, 12 Buys, nine Holds, and no Sells. The stock trades at a 20x forward earnings multiple.
What Could Block the Cross
Renewed cocoa inflation; consumer downtrading; USMCA tariff changes; hyperinflation in Argentina, Türkiye, Egypt, and Nigeria; or a sharp dollar rally could stall momentum. The 200-day line will keep falling for now, which actually helps the math. The question is whether the 50-day can keep its upward slope intact long enough to complete the handshake.
Top Gaining Stocks
Top Losing Stocks