Over two years ago, nobody gave XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) a real chance. The SEC lawsuit had it pinned down for years while Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) held its place as the second-largest crypto by market cap. Then things started to change. Today, XRP holds an $84 billion market cap against Ethereum’s $256 billion.
XRP is still behind by a whole lot, but for the first time in a long while, the gap appears to be narrowing. So, can XRP really overtake Ethereum by market cap?
Ripple (XRP) Is Making Bigger Moves Than Many Expected
Ripple has spent most of 2026 closing deals with some of the biggest names in traditional finance. Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, and Mastercard’s $9 trillion payment network are all among the partnerships Ripple has landed this year. The company also ranked 16th on CNBC’s 2026 Disruptor 50 list, with a valuation around $50 billion.
However, most of these deals run through RLUSD, Ripple’s stablecoin, or its custody infrastructure rather than XRP directly. XRP has fallen more than 40% from its January peak of $2.42, even as Ripple’s institutional partnerships keep growing. Hence, investors betting on Ripple’s success haven’t really seen that reflected in the token’s price yet.
How XRP Could Overtake Ethereum By Market Cap
For XRP to close in on Ethereum, it needs steady demand flowing in, and right now its ETFs are doing just that. XRP ETFs launched last November and have pulled in over $1.39 billion since. That’s solid early traction, but it’s still well behind Ethereum—ETH ETFs have attracted nearly $12 billion in inflows.
Earlier this year XRP briefly stepped up to the fourth position, holding approximately a $93.4 billion market cap. This shows that momentum was building before broader market conditions pulled it back.
If XRP’s market cap were to match Ethereum’s today, the token would be priced at around $4.15. This depends on whether XRP itself begins attracting sustained demand that can expand its market cap.
Ethereum Still Holds One Major Advantage Over XRP
Ripple handles payments better with fast settlements, low fees, and a system built for banks, but that narrow focus may also be its biggest limitation, because Ethereum is powering far more than just one use case.
Ethereum is the leading smart contract platform, with a deep ecosystem covering DeFi, stablecoins, NFTs, and tokenized assets. That breadth gives it something XRP simply doesn’t have: multiple independent sources of demand pulling its market cap higher at the same time.
Moreover, Ethereum benefits from staking, allowing holders to earn passive yield currently around 2.9% annually, with some ETFs now including staking features. Beyond that, it holds a dominant position in decentralized finance and leads in tokenized real-world assets with more than $16.5 billion on-chain.
Therefore, if Ripple can’t continue developing features that create real demand for XRP on the network, the token won’t have strong odds of appreciating significantly over time.
Can XRP Really Overtake Ethereum?
Ripple is building out its infrastructure, but execution remains the open question—and the bigger concern is RLUSD. As Ripple’s own stablecoin grows, it risks taking over the very role XRP was supposed to play, settling the deals and moving the value. XRP’s value has always depended on Ripple’s products creating demand for the token, and with each passing month that case gets harder to make.
That said, one legislative catalyst could change the picture entirely. The CLARITY Act cleared the Senate Banking Committee on May 14, but it still needs 60 votes on the full Senate floor, and a presidential signature.
We think that if it passes and ETF inflows pick up at scale. If it passes and ETF inflows reach $3–5 billion, then XRP could climb to $5 in 2026. But the bill stalls, that drops back to around $2.80.
So, can XRP overtake Ethereum soon? The honest answer is no—at least not in the near term. XRP would need to roughly triple just to close on Ethereum’s current market cap, and even the $5 price target depends on a law that hasn’t passed yet. The potential is there over the long run, but overtaking Ethereum is a question of years.
How Far Would XRP Have To Go To Catch Ethereum?
This is where the long game comes in. Standard Chartered’s longer-term target runs all the way to $28 by 2030, with steps along the way at $7 in 2027 and $12.60 in 2028. The bank points to rising institutional demand and improving regulatory conditions as the drivers.
At a $28 price, XRP’s market cap would be worth far more than Ethereum’s whole market today, so over a long enough horizon, the gap isn’t impossible to close. The catch is that Ethereum won’t be standing still either, as its ecosystem will keep pulling in demand that XRP still has to build.
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