Could Ethereum Lose Its Number 2 Crypto Position by 2030?

By Sam Daodu Published May 26, 5:30AM EDT

Quick Read

Ethereum still holds a strong lead, backed by around $250 billion market cap, over $150 billion in stablecoins, and a large share of real-world asset tokenization.
Competition is rising, with Tether’s fast market cap growth, Solana’s faster transaction testing, and XRP posting strong inflows tied to payments and tokenization demand.
It sounds nuts, but SoFi is giving new active invest users up to $1,000 in stock for a limited time, and all it takes is a $50 deposit to get started. See for yourself (Sponsor)

This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.

Could Ethereum Lose Its Number 2 Crypto Position by 2030? — © PerfectWave / Shutterstock.com

Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) has held the number two spot in crypto for years, and most investors see no reason that changes anytime soon. ETH remains at the center of decentralized finance, NFTs, and most smart contract activity across crypto.

But rivals are catching up: Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) with cheaper transactions, XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) targeting bank settlement, and Tether (CRYPTO: USDT) growing its market cap 622% over five years against Ethereum’s 11.75%. Polymarket now puts the odds of ETH losing its ranking before the end of 2026 at 59%, up from just 17% in January. So can Ethereum hold its number two spot through 2030, or does one of these rivals take it?

Ethereum (ETH) Still Holds a Strong Market Lead

Ethereum Cryptocurrency token. Rise in price and Growth of quotations, the green graph up. The behavior of the cryptocurrency exchanges, concept. Modern financial technologies.

Ethereum is the second largest cryptocurrency by market cap, currently valued at around $254 billion, still well ahead of Tether at roughly $189 billion, even as the gap narrows. That difference matters a lot when you’re weighing how real the threat to Ethereum’s number two position actually is right now.

The network controls roughly 33% of the total real-world asset tokenization market, the largest share of any blockchain. Of the roughly $320 billion in stablecoins circulating across all chains, about $150 billion settle on Ethereum mainnet, spread across USDT, USDC, USDS, USDe, and a range of smaller issuers.

BlackRock launched ETHB on Nasdaq in March 2026, the first major U.S. Ethereum ETF that lets holders earn staking yield, paying out roughly 1.9% to 2.2% annually on a monthly basis. Charles Schwab followed on May 13, 2026, opening direct spot Ethereum trading to its 39 million account holders.

Networks That Could Challenge Ethereum by 2030

A blue digital screen displays a list of cryptocurrency names in white text, including Zcash, Ripple, Bitcoin, and Ethereum. The background features a faint world map with grid lines. On the right, green upward-pointing and red downward-pointing triangular arrows are visible, indicating market trends.

Three networks are making the most credible cases against Ethereum, and each comes from a completely different angle: Tether (USDT), Solana, and XRP, all backed by real on-chain numbers and capital flows.

Tether is the most immediate threat on market cap alone. Over the past five years, Tether’s market cap grew 622% to over $189 billion, expanding exactly when money moved out of higher-risk assets and traders shifted to safety. Ethereum’s market cap grew roughly 11.75% over the same period. That gap in growth rate is what has shifted prediction markets so sharply in 2026.

Solana is building its case on speed with the Alpenglow upgrade, which entered community testing on May 11 and targets block finality of around 100 to 150 milliseconds, roughly 87 times faster than the current time, with the main network launch expected in Q3 2026. If Alpenglow laucnhes on schedule, Solana could become the fastest major Layer 1 in crypto.

XRP is winning on capital flows into real-world assets and infrastructure. The XRP Ledger pulled in $1.12 billion in net capital inflows over the 30 days ending May 13, a stretch in which both Ethereum and Solana posted outflows of hundreds of millions. Boston Consulting Group projects the total value of tokenized assets across all blockchains could reach $16 trillion by 2030, and XRP has been building specifically to compete for that market.

Why Ethereum’s No. 2 Spot Is Suddenly in Question

Ethereum (ETH) and other crypto coins with blurred candlestick chart. Ethereum is a decentralized, open-source blockchain with smart contract. Cryptocurrency and decentralized finance concept

U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs posted eight straight days of net outflows from May 11 to May 20, totaling $431.86 million. April’s $355.98 million in net inflows ended a five-month outflow streak that pulled nearly $2.8 billion from the funds, but May has already given back $260.18 million of that recovery.

Standard Chartered calculated that Coinbase’s Base alone removed $50 billion from ETH’s market cap by diverting transaction fees away from the mainnet. Every transaction that settles on a Layer 2 is revenue Ethereum’s base layer doesn’t collect, and that diversion has been accelerating as Layer 2 activity grows.

The pullback extends beyond ETFs too. Goldman Sachs cut its Ethereum ETF holdings by roughly 70% in Q1 2026, reducing its total ETH exposure to around $114 million. And JPMorgan said in May that ETH needs stronger network growth and DeFi adoption to reverse its underperformance against Bitcoin.

What Investors Are Watching Heading Into 2030

Ethereum cryptocurrencies and background graph statistics

Institutional investors are tracking three things heading into 2030: the ETH-to-Bitcoin ratio, staking yield, and Ethereum’s grip on stablecoin settlement.

Tom Lee’s price framework anchors his targets to that ratio, which carries an eight-year average of 0.0479 but has fallen to 0.0320 today, currently 33% below its long-term norm, and several institutional desks have flagged it as the key valuation signal to watch. His lower target sits at $12,000 by 2030 and his bullish one at $22,000, both requiring that ratio to recover, and neither is priced in at current levels.

Beyond the ratio, staking is reshaping how long-term holders approach ETH. BitMine, one of the largest institutional ETH holders, has accumulated over 5.2 million ETH, roughly 4.3% of Ethereum’s entire circulating supply. About 90% of those holdings are actively staked through its MAVAN validator network, generating annualized staking revenue of over $300 million.

Then there’s stablecoin dominance, which may be the strongest case Standard Chartered has for its $40,000 ETH price target by 2030. Over 60% of all stablecoins in circulation, roughly $150 billion, currently settle on Ethereum, giving the network a settlement lead that institutions like BlackRock and Schwab are actively building on as they bring assets on-chain.

If that market grows toward the $2 trillion level Standard Chartered projects by 2028, Ethereum’s settlement infrastructure stands to capture more of that expansion than any other network.

Ethereum’s Role May Matter More Than Its Ranking

Whether Ethereum holds its number two spot by 2030 may matter less than whether it holds its position as the primary settlement layer for global finance. The Glamsterdam upgrade, now targeting Q3 2026 after the original June window slipped following testnet delays, will introduce parallel transaction processing and a projected 78% reduction in gas fees.

The gas limit moves from 60 million to 200 million per block, and processing capacity is targeting 10,000 transactions per second. Ethereum currently handles around 1,000 transactions per second, so that’s a tenfold jump if the upgrade delivers.

A network processing the majority of the world’s stablecoin settlements and tokenized assets is valuable regardless of where it ranks. Ethereum still has more financial infrastructure running on it than any other chain, and that’s what most long-term investors are actually betting on.

DISCLOSURE:

Customer must fund their Active Invest account with at least $50 within 45 days of opening the account. Receive a minimum of $15. Probability of member receiving $3,000 is a probability of 0.026% If you don’t make a selection in 45 days, you’ll no longer qualify for the promo. Percentages for the $3,000 are subject to decrease. See full terms and conditions.

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE Brokerage and Active investing products offered through SoFi Securities LLC, member FINRA(www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Advisory services are offered by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. Information about SoFi Wealth’s advisory operations, services, and fees is set forth in SoFi Wealth’s current Form ADV Part 2 (Brochure), a copy of which is available upon request and at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. Probability of Member receiving $1,000 is a probability of 0.026%; If you don’t make a selection in 30 days, you’ll no longer qualify for the promo. Customer must fund their account with a minimum of $50.00 to qualify. Other fees, such as exchange fees, may apply. Please view our fee disclosure to view a full listing of fees. Investing in alternative investments and/or strategies may not be suitable for all investors and involves unique risks, including the risk of loss. An investor should consider their individual circumstances and any investment information, such as a prospectus, prior to investing. Interval Funds are illiquid instruments, the ability to trade on your timeline may be restricted. Brokerage and Active investing products offered through SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA(www.finra.org) /SIPC(www.sipc.org). There are limitations with fractional shares to consider before investing. During market hours fractional share orders are transmitted immediately in the order received. There may be system delays from receipt of your order until execution and market conditions may adversely impact execution prices. Outside of market hours orders are received on a not held basis and will be aggregated for each security then executed in the morning trade window of the next business day at market open. Share will be delivered at an average price received for executing the securities through a single batched order. Fractional shares may not be transferred to another firm. Fractional shares will be sold when a transfer or closure request is initiated. Please consider that selling securities is a taxable event. Options involve risks, including substantial risk of loss and the possibility an investor may lose the entire investment Before trading options please review the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Investing in an Initial Public Offering (IPO) involves substantial risk, including the risk of loss. Further, there are a variety of risk factors to consider when investing in an IPO, including but not limited to, unproven management, significant debt, and lack of operating history. For a comprehensive discussion of these risks please refer to SoFi Securities’ IPO Risk Disclosure Statement This should not be considered a recommendation to participate in IPOs and investors should carefully read the offering prospectus to determine whether an offering is consistent with their investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation. New offerings generally have high demand and there are a limited number of shares available for distribution to participants. Many customers may not be allocated shares and share allocations may be significantly smaller than the shares requested in the customer’s initial offer (Indication of Interest). For more information on the allocation process please visit IPO Allocation.

Follow 24/7 Wall St. on Google

About the Author Sam Daodu →

Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who's spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining "the cloud" was peak innovation). Since 2018, he's written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think "gas fees" is a typo. When he's not writing or staring at charts, Sam's either: - Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) - At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god - Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing