The crypto market faces a hard question this morning. Can a single initial public offering, even one of historic scale, pull enough capital out of digital assets to bend their price action? Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) is trading near $63,800, up 2.8% over the past 24 hours, yet the multi-week chart tells a different story.
Despite today’s price increase, Bitcoin is down 27% year-to-date. The Polymarket-implied odds of the SpaceX IPO occurring by June 15 sit at 98%, with later-June dates already near 100%, an unusually tight runway for the most talked-about listing in recent memory.
That timing has analysts at BNP Paribas drawing a direct line between the upcoming float and weakness across risk assets. Our prior coverage flagged crypto as a possible first casualty of the SpaceX IPO, and the data since has only sharpened that case.
The BNP Paribas Thesis
As reported in a CNBC YouTube video, BNP Paribas said retail liquidations from areas like semiconductors and levered ETFs will fund much of the SpaceX IPO. Overall, retail is expected to be 30% of the SpaceX IPO, which BNP Paribas estimates could lead to $50 billion in outflows from existing positions.
The offering is expected in mid-June (around June 13) at about $135 per share, and is set to make Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) CEO Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire. SpaceX’s S-1 filing references a Qualified IPO threshold of at least $6 billion in pre-IPO market capitalization, though reported valuations are higher. CNBC’s Jim Cramer has predicted that the float could double to a $4 trillion market cap.
Money Leaving Crypto, Heading Toward Other Assets
Here’s the connective tissue investors should focus on. Retail capital is finite, and a mega-IPO pulling in a 30% retail allocation must come from somewhere. BNP points squarely at semiconductors and levered ETFs as the funding pool, with crypto a logical adjacent source given its retail concentration.
On the digital asset side, the selling is observable. Ripple (CRYPTO:XRP) is trading at $1.172, up 3.4% over the past 24 hours, after hitting $3.55 at its peak in the past year. Reddit’s r/investing flagged “Bitcoin Investors Are ‘Rage Quitting’ as Long-Time Crypto Bulls Begin Offloading BTC Holdings,” a thread that captured the mood last week.
Precise, independent flow-of-funds figures linking specific crypto ETF outflows to SpaceX subscriptions aren’t publicly cited, so the connection rests on BNP Paribas’s estimate plus price action rather than a confirmed dataset. The BNP Paribas thesis is one plausible driver alongside broader risk-off positioning, with the VIX at 21.51, up 40% in a single session on June 5.
Advanced Micro Devices Caught in the Crossfire
Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) stock has come under pressure even after a bounce today, a pattern consistent with retail trimming a crowded long position. The semiconductor leg of BNP Paribas’s thesis is easier to verify directly.
The fundamentals don’t justify panic. Advanced Micro Devices posted Q1 FY2026 revenue of $10.25 billion, up 38% year over year (YoY), with the Data Center segment at $5.78 billion, up 57%, per the company’s 8-K filing. CEO Lisa Su declared, “Customer engagement around MI450 Series and Helios is strengthening, with leading customer forecasts exceeding our initial expectations.”
However, Advanced Micro Devices stock carries a P/E ratio of 175x, and Reddit’s r/stockmarket has been hammering the post “AMD’s price has massively detached from forward earnings expectations.” The setup makes the name an obvious source of liquidity for any large IPO subscription.
What Investors Should Watch
The SpaceX IPO is plausibly contributing to crypto’s weakness through the BNP-described retail funding mechanism. Yet, today’s bounces in Bitcoin and Ripple suggest that the picture is more nuanced than a simple crash.
Investors can watch a few signals over the next two weeks: the IPO pricing window in mid-June, the behavior of leveraged single-stock ETFs, and any stabilization in Bitcoin near its recent lows. Each can signal whether the BNP Paribas capital-rotation thesis is playing out or fading.
Crypto’s selloff is real, the SpaceX float is considerable, and the link between them is reasonable but unproven. Sizing positions modestly into a known liquidity event tends to age well for traders, regardless of which way the flows ultimately tilt.
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