Silver investors absorbed a sharp drawdown over the past month. The iShares Silver Trust (NYSEARCA:SLV), the largest physical silver-backed ETF, closed at $59.01 on June 9, 2026, after a brutal stretch that wiped out weeks of gains. However, a critical-minerals expert who appeared on the All-In Podcast argues that the world could effectively run out of above-ground silver in roughly three years.
The Collapse: What Just Happened to Silver
SLV fell 13.21% over the past week, sliding from $67.99 to $59.01. Over the past month, it dropped 19.18% from $73.01. Year-to-date, the ETF is down 8.4%.
Zoom out, though, and the picture changes. SLV is still up 76.73% over the past year (from $33.39 to $59.01) and up 127.22% over the past five years. The recent move reads as a sharp pullback after a powerful run.
The Structural Shortage: Expert’s “Three-Year” Warning
Dan Dreyfus, founder of Borneite Capital, laid out the bull case for silver on the All-In Podcast. According to his figures, the world consumes 1.2 billion ounces of silver a year, against a supply of 1 billion ounces a year. He frames the gap as a roughly 200 million annual deficit, against only 600 million ounces of above-ground inventory left. “Right now, the silver supply-demand dynamic is we consume 1.2 billion ounces a year, we supply 1 billion ounces a year. So there’s a 200 million ton deficit per year, and we only have 600 million of above-ground inventory left,” Dreyfus said. By his math, that means silver inventory will run dry in roughly three years.
That combination of a persistent structural deficit and shrinking inventories is exactly the kind of setup commodity bulls dream about. It helps explain why Citadel initiated a new SLV position in Q1 2026 and why analysts have highlighted the gold-to-silver ratio of 63:1, well above its roughly 100-year average of 40:1.
The Solar and SpaceX Demand Driver
Dreyfus asked on the episode, “Where do you get the silver for the photovoltaic cells?” Silver is essential for solar panels, and when you layer in the AI-driven solar buildout, the pressure on silver demand intensifies.
SpaceX, which has filed publicly toward an IPO, is pursuing orbital AI compute satellites powered by space-based solar arrays. The company has described early satellites generating 100 kilowatts of compute power, scaling from there across a constellation in dawn-dusk Sun-synchronous orbit with near-constant solar exposure.
The chain between SpaceX’s IPO and increased silver demand is straightforward in theory. SpaceX’s IPO capital funds orbital data centers and Starlink expansion, both of which require massive solar capacity, which in turn requires silver. The catch is that orbital data centers remain a forward-looking thesis, and SpaceX is not yet publicly tradable.
The Broader Critical-Minerals Squeeze
Silver sits within a broader raw-materials bottleneck that Dreyfus has been hammering on. Nuclear faces its own constraints, with Dreyfus noting, “We can’t even build the containment vessels in this country.” The US has cheap natural gas and can build solar, but the binding constraint is raw materials. On the labor side, Dreyfus said top graduates from trade programs are starting at around $150,000 out of high school, reflecting how tight the energy-buildout workforce has become.
Investors interested in the thesis have several ways to gain exposure, including SLV for direct silver exposure and silver miners for a more leveraged bet on rising prices. Both approaches can be highly volatile, as demonstrated by silver’s 19.18% decline over the past month. It’s also important to remember that Dreyfus’s supply-deficit projections, the three-year inventory runway, and the potential demand from SpaceX’s orbital-solar ambitions are all forward-looking assumptions rather than certainties. The thesis is compelling, but the risks are real. Either way, it’s a fascinating story for investors that will likely become a persistent theme over the next decade.
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