Undoubtedly, Pfizer PFE, Moderna MRNA, and AstraZeneca AZNÂ were heroes in the stock market and in a literal sense to society with the prompt emergence of their COVID-19 vaccines that helped curtail the pandemic.
However, their stocks are a far cry from their multi-year highs seen over the last few years with Pfizer and Moderna shares near 52-week lows.
This may have many investors wondering if now is a buying opportunity and if the stocks of these somewhat forgotten health saviors have become overlooked after losing their pandemic mojo.
Annual Outlook Comparison
Pfizer’s Pipeline
Pfizer’s stock has lost the most steam from the pandemic falling -37% this year and near 52-week lows at around $32 a share. Still, in addition to is COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty, Pfizer has a pipeline of drugs and vaccines that target inflammation and immunology, rare diseases, and oncology.
As Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine sales continue to fade earnings are expected to drop -49% in fiscal 2023 to $3.33 a share following a record year that saw EPS at $6.58 in 2022. Fiscal 2024 earnings are expected to dip another -3% at $3.22 a share but would still represent 45% growth over the last five years with EPS at $2.22 in 2020.
Piggybacking on Pfizer’s top line, sales are forecasted to decline -34% this year to $66.47 billion versus $100.33 billion last year which was also a company record. Fiscal 2024 sales are expected to stabilize and be virtually flat with projections of $66.16 billion representing 58% growth over the last five years.
Moderna’s Development
Moderna’s stock has dropped -44% this year and is currently trading around $100 and near its 52-week low of $95 a share. Outside of its Covid-19 vaccine Spikevax, Moderna is focused on discovering and developing messenger-RNA (mRNA) based therapies for infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, autoimmune and cardiovascular diseases.
At the moment, Moderna generates all of its product sales from Covid-19 vaccines. After high profitability over the last few years, Moderna’s earnings are forecasted back in the red at an adjusted loss of -$4.32 a share in FY23 plummeting from $20.12 per share last year. Fiscal 2024 EPS projections call for a wider adjust loss of -$5.56 a share.
Total sales are projected at $6.88 billion this year compared to $19.26 billion in 2022. Fiscal 2024 sales are expected to dip another -4% to $6.59 billion but would still be a very stellar 723% increase over the last five years with sales at $803 million in 2020.
AstraZeneca’s Stability
AstraZeneca’s stock performance is virtually flat this year and while shares of AZN are 26% above 52-week lows they still trade -12% from their 52-week high. As one of the largest biopharmaceutical companies in the world, UK-based AstraZeneca has seen stable growth even as sales of its COVID-19 vaccine Vaxzevria fade.
To that point, AstraZeneca’s therapeutic lines cover cardiovascular, respiratory, immunology, oncology, and rare diseases among others. AstraZeneca’s annual earnings are anticipated to rise 10% this year and jump another 14% in FY24 to $4.19 per share. Fiscal 2024 EPS projections would be 108% growth over the last five years with earnings at $2.01 a share in 2020.
Plus, sales are forecasted to rise 3% in FY23 and pop another 11% in FY24 to $51.18 billion. With sales at $26.61 billion in 2020, FY24 sales projections would represent 92% growth over the last five years.
Valuation Comparison
While AstraZeneca’s outlook certainly stands out among its Covid-19 vaccine peers, Pfizer’s valuation is the most compelling. Pfizer’s stock trades at 9.8X forward earnings which is a nice discount to its Zacks Large-Cap Pharmaceuticals Industry average of 14.4X and well below the S&P 500’s 20X.
AstraZeneca’s stock trades at an 18.5X forward earnings multiple which is not a stretched premium to the Large-Cap Pharmaceuticals Industry average and also below the benchmark.
While it’s not viable to track Moderna’s valuation through the P/E metric at the moment the company’s sales expansion is the reason why there is still much optimism. Furthermore, in terms of price to sales Moderna trades at 5.5X which is much more reasonable than its five-year high of 266.4X and beneath the median of 7.9X.
Bottom Line
At the moment, Pfizer, Moderna, and AstraZeneca stock all land a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Despite slowing COVID-19 vaccine sales these healthcare titans are trading at more reasonable valuations with a lot of the risk-to-reward being priced into their stocks considering their earnings potential.
AstraZeneca PLC (AZN): Free Stock Analysis Report
Pfizer Inc. (PFE): Free Stock Analysis Report
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA): Free Stock Analysis Report
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