Own ASML Holding (NASDAQ:ASML | ASML Price Prediction) before the opening bell on July 15 when the company reports Q2 results and almost certainly reiterates a raised full-year outlook the market is still underpricing. The thesis rests on the fact that ASML is the only company on earth that sells EUV lithography, at a moment when its own CFO says “2026 is panning out very nicely” and management just widened FY guidance upward.
The Setup Into July 15
ASML traded around $1,804.25 last Friday, sitting 8% below its 52-week high of $1,999.96, with the 24/7 Wall St. base case pointing to $2,022.82 and a 0.9 (High) confidence score. The shares are already up 124.48% over the past year and 65.91% year to date, and the tape shifted violently in the buyer’s favor Thursday, with the stock rallying 3.5% intraday ahead of the earnings report.
Three Reasons the Decision Is Easy
1. The Q2 catalyst is loaded: Management already raised FY2026 revenue guidance to EUR 36 billion to EUR 40 billion on the Q1 call, with CFO Roger Dassen calling it “a very strong year”. Q1 2026 already delivered EPS of $8.43 and revenue of $10.34 billion, with gross margin printing at 53.0%, the high end of guidance. Q2 guidance sits at EUR 8.4 billion to EUR 9.0 billion.
2. The demand picture is structural: CEO Christophe Fouquet told investors that “supply will not meet the demand for the foreseeable future” and that memory customers are “sold out for 2026”. The 2025 backlog closed at $45.06 billion against Q4 net bookings of $15.28 billion.
3. Capital return is accelerating: ASML activated a EUR 12 billion buyback in January 2026 running through 2028 and lifted the FY2025 dividend 17% to EUR 7.50 per share. FY2025 free cash flow hit $12.81 billion.
Why Not Applied Materials or Lam Research?
Because Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) and Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX) do not sell lithography and cannot. ASML is the sole global supplier of EUV lithography systems for every sub-7nm node in production. That monopoly showed up in the numbers: EUV lithography systems revenue grew 39% to $13.47 billion in FY2025 while ASML’s non-lithography peers fought over deposition and etch dollars in a commoditizing pricing environment. AMAT and LRCX are fine businesses. Neither will ship a single High NA EXE:5200B tool this decade.
The setup points to July 15 as the next major catalyst.
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