This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.
Solid execution beat — guidance raise offsets minor revenue miss. United’s Q3 confirms structural earnings power: cost discipline + premium pricing + brand loyalty are driving margin resilience even as unit revenues lag. With a record-projected Q4 and net debt falling, the carrier is tracking toward sustainable double-digit EPS growth in 2026.
| KPI | Q3 2025 | YoY Δ | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Revenue | $15.23 B | +2.6 % | Growth led by premium cabin (+6 %) and loyalty (+9 %) |
| Adjusted Pre-Tax Margin | 8.0 % | –170 bps | Slight pressure from fuel and TRASM |
| TRASM | 17.42¢ | –4.3 % | Lower yields offset by capacity gains |
| CASM-ex | 12.15¢ | –0.9 % | Disciplined cost control |
| Fuel Cost | $2.43/gal | –5 % | Favorable pricing |
| Passengers Carried | 48.4 M | +6.2 % | Record quarterly traffic |
| Free Cash Flow (YTD) | $3.29 B | ≈ Flat YoY | Reaffirmed >$2 B full-year |
| Net Leverage | 2.1× | ↓ from 2.4× | MileagePlus bonds fully repaid |
| Metric | Prior | New | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 EPS (Adj.) | $2.25 – $2.75 guidance prior quarter | $3.00 – $3.50 | 📈 Raised |
| FY 2025 EPS Goal | $9 – $11 | Reaffirmed | ⚖️ Flat |
| Free Cash Flow | > $2 B | > $2 B | ⚖️ Flat |
| Liquidity | $18.6 B (Q2) | $16.3 B | 📉 Lower (due to debt paydown) |
Management expects record Q4 operating revenue as unit revenue improves year-over-year, aided by premium mix and normalized operations.
Q4 adj. EPS guidance raised to $3.00 – $3.50, above Street range (~$2.90–$3.10).
FY 2025 EPS target ($9–$11) reaffirmed.
Free cash flow guidance (> $2 B) unchanged. 📈 Raised
My take; United outperformed expectations on profitability even as total revenue slightly trailed consensus, signaling strong cost discipline and premium demand offsetting yield softness. The stock reaction is likely to hinge on upbeat Q4 guidance implying record quarterly revenue.
United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said that “those investments over almost a decade, combined with great service from our people, have allowed United to win and retain brand-loyal customers, leading to economic resilience even with macro economic volatility through the first three quarters of the year and significant upside as the economy and demand are improving in the fourth quarter.”
He remains cautiously optimistic, guiding Q4 adjusted EPS to $3.00–$3.50 on stronger demand and continued loyalty gains.
Revenue climbed 2.6% year-over-year to $15.22 billion, while net income slipped 1.7% to $949 million, reflecting solid top-line growth amid modest margin pressure.
| Metric | Q3 25 | Q3 24 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $15.22 B | $14.84 B | +2.57% |
| Net Income | $949.00 M | $965.00 M | −1.66% |
United Airlines reported adjusted EPS of $2.78 for Q3, topping the $2.67 consensus, while revenue of $15.23 billion fell just short of the $15.29 billion estimate. The stock was trading at $104.19 at the time of filing.
The stock is up .67% after- hours. More updates on UAL are on the way.
| Quarter | Consensus EPS | Actual EPS | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2024 | 3.17 | 3.33 | +5.05% |
| Q4 FY2024 | 3.03 | 3.26 | +7.59% |
| Q1 FY2025 | 0.74 | 0.91 | +22.97% |
| Q2 FY2025 | 3.81 | 3.87 | +1.57% |
Live coverage has ended. The full story is below.
United Airlines (Nasdaq:UAL | UAL Price Prediction) reports fiscal third-quarter 2025 results after the close today at 4 p.m. ET, marking one of the most closely watched earnings of the airline earnings season.
The stock has rallied toward $100 in recent weeks amid optimism that corporate travel and domestic yields have turned a corner after a soft first half.
United’s Q2 call emphasized margin durability, supply-side discipline across the industry, and a visible inflection in demand.
With management targeting $9–$11 full-year EPS and free cash flow above $2 billion, tonight’s results will test whether those goals remain intact as capacity and fuel trends normalize into 2026.
– Revenue: $15.29 billion
– EPS (Normalized): $2.68
– Cash from Operations: n/a
– FY 2025 Revenue: $58.93 billion
– FY 2025 EPS: $10.32
– FY 2026 Revenue: $63.31 billion
– FY 2026 EPS: $12.71
The Q3 consensus implies –19.6% EPS decline year-over-year (vs. $3.33 in Q3 FY2024) but ~3% revenue growth.
Street forecasts for FY 2026 call for +7.4% top-line growth and +23% EPS expansion, consistent with management’s guidance for double-digit pre-tax margins longer term
Demand Inflection & Business Travel
CFO Mike Leskinen and CCO Andrew Nocella highlighted a 6-point improvement in bookings and double-digit growth in business demand entering Q3. Investors will watch if those trends translated into RASM stabilization and positive yield momentum.
2. Newark Margin Recovery
Newark disruptions cut Q2 margins by ~1 point, but United said the hub is now “running better than ever.” Analysts will gauge whether Q3 saw full normalization and improved throughput.
3. Cost Discipline & Leverage
United delivered CASM-ex +2.2% in Q2 and expects similar performance through year-end. Free cash flow remains guided above $2 billion, with liquidity of $18.6 billion and net leverage ≈ 2×. Any deviation could shift sentiment on 2026 margin targets.
4. Premium Mix Expansion
Management plans to expand Premium Plus cabins and launch Polaris Studio Suite later this year. Investors will look for premium RASM uplift and updates on gauge increases from MAX 9 and A321neo deliveries.
5. Strategic Initiatives
Updates on Starlink rollout, the Blue Sky JetBlue collaboration, and Connected Media advertising revenue will offer early reads on ancillary-revenue growth heading into 2026.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Joel South covers large-cap stocks, dividend investing, and major market trends, with a focus on earnings analysis, valuation, and turning complex data into actionable insights for investors.
He brings more than 15 years of experience as an investor and financial journalist, including 12 years at The Motley Fool, where he served as an investment analyst, Bureau Chief, and later led the Fool.com investing news desk. He has also co-hosted an investing podcast and appeared across TV and radio discussing market trends.
The U.S. airline industry entered 2026 with momentum from a strong 2025 travel cycle, but the first quarter has been turbulent. Benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil surged 48.4% in a single month,…
Las Vegas Sand (NYSE:LVS | LVS Price Prediction) reports Q2 2025 earnings after the market closes today. Macau’s gaming rebound continues to exceed expectations, and recent data showed June GGR up 15% YoY —…
Summer 2026 will be a stress test for U.S. airlines. Second quarter jet fuel is tracking $4.10 to $4.30 per gallon, with benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude at $99.89 per barrel and in…
JetBlue just handed investors a reason to rethink the entire airline sector, but the same earnings report that sent shares soaring also revealed a widening loss that bulls are choosing to ignore.
Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL | DAL Price Prediction) stock is up 5% from its most recent close of $60.84 while American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) shares rose 4% in early trading this Tuesday morning, bouncing off…
American Airlines (Nasdaq:AAL | AAL Price Prediction) beat Wall Street’s expectations on both revenue and earnings today, posting Q3 results that beat on both EPS and revenue, sending shares 4.48% in premarket trading. The…
Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL | DAL Price Prediction) and United Airlines (Nasdaq: UAL) both reported Q3 2025 earnings that reveal how legacy carriers are navigating a market defined by premium cabin demand and…
Seagate Technology (NASDAQ: STX | STX Price Prediction) reports fiscal Q1 2026 earnings after the close, entering with one of the hottest rebounds in tech hardware. The stock has soared more than 120% over…
Booking Holdings (NASDAQ: BKNG | BKNG Price Prediction) delivered a beat on both earnings and revenue after the close Tuesday, with adjusted EPS of $99.50 versus $97.33 expected and revenue of $9.00 billion against…
