Live News & Earnings
Live Earnings: How Will United Airlines (UAL) Perform Tonight?
Key Points
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Wall Street expects EPS of $2.68 on revenue of $15.29 billion, implying a sharp sequential step-down from Q2’s $3.87 but stable year-over-year growth of ~3%.
- Management last quarter guided to Q3 EPS between $2.25 and $2.75, with improving booking trends, double-digit business demand acceleration, and stabilizing domestic yield
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By Joel South
Oct 15, 2025 | Updated 4:17 PM ET
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Overall Grade
Live
Solid execution beat — guidance raise offsets minor revenue miss. United’s Q3 confirms structural earnings power: cost discipline + premium pricing + brand loyalty are driving margin resilience even as unit revenues lag. With a record-projected Q4 and net debt falling, the carrier is tracking toward sustainable double-digit EPS growth in 2026.
Key Operating Highlights
Live
| KPI | Q3 2025 | YoY Δ | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Revenue | $15.23 B | +2.6 % | Growth led by premium cabin (+6 %) and loyalty (+9 %) |
| Adjusted Pre-Tax Margin | 8.0 % | –170 bps | Slight pressure from fuel and TRASM |
| TRASM | 17.42¢ | –4.3 % | Lower yields offset by capacity gains |
| CASM-ex | 12.15¢ | –0.9 % | Disciplined cost control |
| Fuel Cost | $2.43/gal | –5 % | Favorable pricing |
| Passengers Carried | 48.4 M | +6.2 % | Record quarterly traffic |
| Free Cash Flow (YTD) | $3.29 B | ≈ Flat YoY | Reaffirmed >$2 B full-year |
| Net Leverage | 2.1× | ↓ from 2.4× | MileagePlus bonds fully repaid |
More on Guidance
Live
| Metric | Prior | New | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 EPS (Adj.) | $2.25 – $2.75 guidance prior quarter | $3.00 – $3.50 | 📈 Raised |
| FY 2025 EPS Goal | $9 – $11 | Reaffirmed | ⚖️ Flat |
| Free Cash Flow | > $2 B | > $2 B | ⚖️ Flat |
| Liquidity | $18.6 B (Q2) | $16.3 B | 📉 Lower (due to debt paydown) |
Management expects record Q4 operating revenue as unit revenue improves year-over-year, aided by premium mix and normalized operations.
Guidance:
Live
Q4 adj. EPS guidance raised to $3.00 – $3.50, above Street range (~$2.90–$3.10).
FY 2025 EPS target ($9–$11) reaffirmed.
Free cash flow guidance (> $2 B) unchanged. 📈 Raised
My take; United outperformed expectations on profitability even as total revenue slightly trailed consensus, signaling strong cost discipline and premium demand offsetting yield softness. The stock reaction is likely to hinge on upbeat Q4 guidance implying record quarterly revenue.
Kirby: Investments and Service Underpin Resilience
Live
United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said that “those investments over almost a decade, combined with great service from our people, have allowed United to win and retain brand-loyal customers, leading to economic resilience even with macro economic volatility through the first three quarters of the year and significant upside as the economy and demand are improving in the fourth quarter.”
He remains cautiously optimistic, guiding Q4 adjusted EPS to $3.00–$3.50 on stronger demand and continued loyalty gains.
UAL Q3 2025 Year-Over-Year Results
Live
Revenue climbed 2.6% year-over-year to $15.22 billion, while net income slipped 1.7% to $949 million, reflecting solid top-line growth amid modest margin pressure.
| Metric | Q3 25 | Q3 24 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $15.22 B | $14.84 B | +2.57% |
| Net Income | $949.00 M | $965.00 M | −1.66% |
UAL Q3 EPS Beats, Revenue Slightly Misses Estimates
Live
United Airlines reported adjusted EPS of $2.78 for Q3, topping the $2.67 consensus, while revenue of $15.23 billion fell just short of the $15.29 billion estimate. The stock was trading at $104.19 at the time of filing.
The stock is up .67% after- hours. More updates on UAL are on the way.
Earnings History
Live
| Quarter | Consensus EPS | Actual EPS | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2024 | 3.17 | 3.33 | +5.05% |
| Q4 FY2024 | 3.03 | 3.26 | +7.59% |
| Q1 FY2025 | 0.74 | 0.91 | +22.97% |
| Q2 FY2025 | 3.81 | 3.87 | +1.57% |
United Airlines (Nasdaq:UAL) reports fiscal third-quarter 2025 results after the close today at 4 p.m. ET, marking one of the most closely watched earnings of the airline earnings season.
The stock has rallied toward $100 in recent weeks amid optimism that corporate travel and domestic yields have turned a corner after a soft first half.
United’s Q2 call emphasized margin durability, supply-side discipline across the industry, and a visible inflection in demand.
With management targeting $9–$11 full-year EPS and free cash flow above $2 billion, tonight’s results will test whether those goals remain intact as capacity and fuel trends normalize into 2026.
What To Expect
– Revenue: $15.29 billion
– EPS (Normalized): $2.68
– Cash from Operations: n/a
– FY 2025 Revenue: $58.93 billion
– FY 2025 EPS: $10.32
– FY 2026 Revenue: $63.31 billion
– FY 2026 EPS: $12.71
The Q3 consensus implies –19.6% EPS decline year-over-year (vs. $3.33 in Q3 FY2024) but ~3% revenue growth.
Street forecasts for FY 2026 call for +7.4% top-line growth and +23% EPS expansion, consistent with management’s guidance for double-digit pre-tax margins longer term
What To Watch Tonight
Demand Inflection & Business Travel
CFO Mike Leskinen and CCO Andrew Nocella highlighted a 6-point improvement in bookings and double-digit growth in business demand entering Q3. Investors will watch if those trends translated into RASM stabilization and positive yield momentum.
2. Newark Margin Recovery
Newark disruptions cut Q2 margins by ~1 point, but United said the hub is now “running better than ever.” Analysts will gauge whether Q3 saw full normalization and improved throughput.
3. Cost Discipline & Leverage
United delivered CASM-ex +2.2% in Q2 and expects similar performance through year-end. Free cash flow remains guided above $2 billion, with liquidity of $18.6 billion and net leverage ≈ 2×. Any deviation could shift sentiment on 2026 margin targets.
4. Premium Mix Expansion
Management plans to expand Premium Plus cabins and launch Polaris Studio Suite later this year. Investors will look for premium RASM uplift and updates on gauge increases from MAX 9 and A321neo deliveries.
5. Strategic Initiatives
Updates on Starlink rollout, the Blue Sky JetBlue collaboration, and Connected Media advertising revenue will offer early reads on ancillary-revenue growth heading into 2026.
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