Meta’s AI Ambitions Keep Expanding. Is META Stock Keeping Up?
Meta crushed earnings five quarters running yet the stock has gone nowhere, and a $145 billion capex bet is the reason investors are split. Whether that spending becomes a catalyst or a liability depends on what happens next quarter.
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Meta has become the poster child for the hyperscaler AI spending race. 2026 has been a tug of war between blockbuster earnings and rising anxiety about capex translation into shareholder returns. Our proprietary model sees material upside from here.
Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META | META Price Prediction) is $892.70 over the next 12 months, implying 38.19% upside from $646.01. The recommendation is a buy with high confidence (90%).
24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $646.01 |
| 24/7 Wall St. Price Target | $892.70 |
| Upside | 38.19% |
| Recommendation | BUY |
| Confidence Level | 90% |
Why META Has Traded Sideways Despite a Blowout Quarter
Meta is down 1.96% year to date and 7.6% over the past year, sitting 4% below its 52-week high of $793.65.
Q1 2026 delivered revenue of $56.31 billion growing 33.08% year over year and EPS of $10.44 beating consensus by 56.79%, the fifth straight beat. Yet shares fell 8.55% as investors digested a raised full-year capex range of $125 to $145 billion.
A Benzinga report flagged a potential $10 billion AI deal with Anthropic, and JPMorgan described Meta’s aggressive Model API pricing as “the first significant step toward monetizing its substantial AI investments beyond advertising.”
The Case for $1,015 and Higher
Bulls argue advertising funds AI expansion. Q1 ad impressions rose 19% YoY and price per ad rose 12%, with Family of Apps daily active people at 3.56 billion. Zuckerberg framed the strategy plainly: “Our biggest milestone so far this year has been the release of our Muse family of models.”
UBS carries a Buy with a $766 target, and analyst coverage skews 57 Buy ratings versus 6 Holds and zero Sells. Our bull case pegs META at $1,015.75, a 57.23% return.
What Could Go Wrong
The bear case centers on capex return on investment. FY25 capex hit $72.22 billion and 2026 guidance stretches to $145 billion. Reality Labs continues to bleed with a $4.03 billion Q1 operating loss. Regulatory overhang includes 2026 youth-related trials that could produce material judgments.
Susan Li acknowledged the planning tension: “We have continued to underestimate our compute needs even as we have been ramping capacity significantly.” Free cash flow of $43.59 billion in FY25 gives Meta room to absorb misfires. Our bear case leaves META at $765.23, an 18.45% gain.
How Meta Stacks Up Against Alphabet and Pinterest
Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) is the sharpest comp: another ad-funded hyperscaler racing on AI infrastructure. Alphabet’s Q1 2026 revenue grew 21.8% to $109.9 billion with Google Cloud up 63%, and management guided 2026 capex to $175 to $185 billion. Alphabet’s growth is faster today, but Meta’s 21 forward P/E versus Meta’s higher earnings acceleration keeps our target defensible.
Pinterest (NYSE: PINS) is the small-cap visual-discovery comp. Pinterest Q1 2026 revenue grew 17.84% to $1.01 billion with 631 million MAUs, but lacks Meta’s 3.56 billion DAP scale and cash-generation profile. That gap makes our multiple assumptions for META reasonable.
I’d Buy It Here
The 24/7 Wall St. price target is $892.70 with a buy rating and 90% confidence. Forward EPS of $41.14 against a 21 forward multiple leaves room.
I would buy here if Q2 revenue lands inside the $58 to $61 billion guide and ad pricing stays double digits. I would stay on the sidelines if 2027 capex guidance leaks materially above 2026 without a monetization roadmap.
| Year | 24/7 Wall St. Price Target |
|---|---|
| 2026 | $892.70 |
| 2027 | $1,050 |
| 2028 | $1,235 |
| 2029 | $1,415 |
| 2030 | $1,598.80 |
These projections assume Meta executes on Superintelligence Labs and defends ad share. Significant upside or downside could come from AI monetization pace and regulatory rulings in youth-related litigation.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Vandita Jadeja is a financial publisher with over a decade of experience writing about financial topics, including investment, savings, retirement, insurance and banking. Vandita is a Chartered Accountant who loves to debunk financial concepts for readers.
Her work has appeared on sites that include The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, and Benzinga. She covers investing and focuses on stock picks and price prediction for 24/7 Wall St.
When not looking for the next stock investment opportunity, she can be found traveling, reading, chasing sunsets and enjoying her iced latte.
