Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY | JOBY Price Prediction) trades at $7.47, and our 24/7 Wall St. price target for the stock is $11.01 over the next 12 months. That implies 47.39% upside. Our recommendation is hold, at medium confidence. Bulls need certification and Dubai revenue catalysts to push shares back to the mid-teens.
24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $7.47 |
| 24/7 Wall St. Price Target | $11.01 |
| Implied Upside | 47.39% |
| Recommendation | HOLD |
| Confidence Level | Medium |
A Brutal Year for JOBY Shareholders
Joby shares are down 43.41% year to date and 57.99% over the past year, with a 25.3% drop in the last month.
Q4 2025 delivered a double beat: revenue of $30.84 million against a $16.88 million estimate and an EPS loss of $0.14 versus the $0.20 expected loss. Management guided full-year 2026 revenue to $105 million to $115 million and raised roughly $1.2 billion in February, lifting total liquidity above $2.6 billion.
The Dubai passenger service is imminent, and Joby was selected for the White House-backed eVTOL Integration Pilot Program.
Why Bulls See a Path to $15+
The bull case rests on execution. If Joby launches paid Dubai service in 2026 with visible flight volumes, FAA Type Certification advances to Stage 5, and the Kazakhstan letter of intent for up to $250 million in aircraft and services converts to a firm order, re-rating could be sharp.
The Ohio facility supports up to 500 aircraft per year, and management plans to double production from 2 to 4 aircraft per month in 2027. An upside scenario puts JOBY at $15 to $17, still short of a full double.
The Risks Worth Watching
Cash burn is the core bear concern. Joby posted a FY2025 net loss of $929.84 million and burned $509.89 million in operating cash. H1 2026 cash usage is guided at $340 million to $370 million. Insider activity has skewed toward selling with 92 recent transactions.
Certification timelines could slip, and competitor Archer is racing for the same US commercial launch window. Joby’s headline loss was inflated by non-cash items, including a $72.57 million warrant revaluation gain, and heavy R&D spend of $161.26 million reflects investment in a program that could dominate the category. If certification slips into 2027, a bear scenario around $5 is plausible.
How Joby Compares to Archer and EHang
Archer Aviation (NYSE:ACHR) targets the same White House pilot program and LA28 Olympics. Archer’s market cap sits at $4.05 billion, roughly half of Joby’s, yet Archer generated just $1.6 million in Q1 2026 revenue. Joby’s revenue lead supports our target.
EHang Holdings (NASDAQ:EH) already operates commercially in China with a market cap of just $290 million despite holding full CAAC certification for pilotless human-carrying eVTOL. EHang delivered a record 221 units in FY2025. That EHang trades at a fraction of Joby’s valuation with actual commercial deliveries is a caution flag for our target.
Hold for Now, But Watch Dubai Closely
The 24/7 Wall St. price target for Joby is $11.01, our recommendation is hold, and our confidence is medium. The key factor is Dubai commercial revenue against continued cash burn.
A buyer case emerges if Dubai passenger flights launch on schedule and FAA Stage 5 progress is confirmed. Stay on the sidelines if H1 2026 cash burn exceeds guidance or if the Kazakhstan LOI fails to convert. Doubling this year is unlikely, but a 40% to 50% rebound to our target is a fair base case.
Joby Price Prediction 2026-2030
| Year | 24/7 Wall St. Price Target |
|---|---|
| 2026 | $11.01 |
| 2027 | $14.00 |
| 2028 | $18.00 |
| 2029 | $22.00 |
| 2030 | $26.00 |
These projections assume Joby executes its Dubai launch, achieves FAA Type Certification by 2027, and scales production to Ohio facility capacity. Significant upside or downside could result from certification delays, dilutive capital raises, or acceleration of the Tokyo 2030 commercial service milestone.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
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