Wall Street’s mood on Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY | JOBY Price Prediction) has shifted from skepticism to cautious optimism. After a punishing year for the stock, the setup into the Q2 2026 earnings report looks more constructive than it has in months.
Joby trades at $7.15 as of the most recent close. Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Joby Aviation is $11.91, implying 66.61% upside over the next 12 months. Our recommendation is buy with a moderate (50%) confidence level, reflecting real execution risk against a rich catalyst path.
24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $7.15 |
| 24/7 Wall St. Price Target | $11.91 |
| Upside | 66.61% |
| Recommendation | BUY |
| Confidence Level | 50% |
A Rough Year Into a Loaded Catalyst Window
Joby shares are down 45.83% year to date and 57.08% over the past year, sitting 47% below the 52-week high of $20.95 and just above the 52-week low of $6.63. Yet the stock has begun to firm, with shares up 3.17% last week.
Q4 2025 delivered EPS of -$0.14, beating consensus by 28.97%, on revenue of $30.84 million that exceeded the $16.88 million estimate by 82.66%. Since then, Joby locked in a multi-year exclusive UK air taxi deal with Virgin Atlantic and expanded its Toyota manufacturing joint venture. Q2 2026 earnings hit August 5, 2026.
Why Bulls See a Breakout to $15+
The bull case rests on 2026 being an inflection year. CEO JoeBen Bevirt called it exactly that, saying the focus has shifted “from how and when we’ll go to market, to how many aircraft we can produce and where to deploy them.” Full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $105 million to $115 million represents a step-function jump from FY2025’s $53.4 million.
Catalysts include Dubai passenger service launch, the Virgin Atlantic UK routes from Heathrow and Manchester, a Saudi Arabia LOI worth roughly $1 billion, an ANA joint venture in Japan, and an L3Harris defense partnership targeting the DoD’s $9 billion FY26 autonomous aircraft budget. The bull-case scenario points to $15.25 within 12 months, a 113.29% return.
The Risks Worth Watching
Bears point to valuation and cash burn. Joby trades at 50 times projected 2026 sales, with a trailing operating margin of -9.63% and FY2025 net loss of $929.84 million. Insider activity has skewed to selling, including CEO Bevirt’s $4.6 million share sale on July 15. FAA certification and eVTOL competition round out the concerns.
Bulls argue the operating loss reflects $161.26 million of Q4 R&D spend that funds product development, and that the Bevirt sale ran through a pre-approved 10b5-1 plan adopted in October 2025. Our bear case lands at $9.10, above today’s price.
How Joby Compares to Archer and EHang
Archer Aviation (NYSE:ACHR) is the cleanest US-listed comp: same eVTOL end market, same FAA pathway, same defense pivot. Archer carries a market cap of $3.54 billion, roughly half Joby’s, on P/B of 1.61 versus Joby’s 4.99. Q1 2026 revenue was only $1.60 million against Joby’s rapidly scaling Blade-driven revenue, making Joby’s premium multiple more defensible.
EHang Holdings (NASDAQ:EH) is the autonomous eVTOL counterpoint, ahead on certification in China but tiny at a $294 million market cap. FY2025 revenue reached $72.86 million, comparable to Joby, yet EHang deliveries collapsed to just 4 units in Q1 2026. That volatility highlights execution risk in eVTOL and reinforces the value of Joby’s balance sheet and Western regulatory footprint.
Joby Aviation Price Prediction 2026-2030
The bull case strengthens if the August 5 earnings report confirms progress on the $105 million to $115 million revenue guide and shows manageable cash burn. The thesis weakens if FAA certification slips beyond 2027 or if Dubai passenger service is pushed. The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $11.91 and buy rating stand, tempered by moderate confidence.
Our model, extended with scenario analysis, projects the following trajectory assuming Joby executes on certification and commercial ramp.
| Year | 24/7 Wall St. Price Target |
|---|---|
| 2026 | $11.91 |
| 2027 | $15.50 |
| 2028 | $19.75 |
| 2029 | $24.00 |
| 2030 | $28.73 |
These projections assume Joby executes on Dubai, UK, and defense commercialization. Significant upside or downside could result from FAA certification timing and capital raises that dilute existing holders.
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