Shares of SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) have collapsed from a 52-week high of $225.64 to $113.50 as of July 27, 2026, a slide that has erased more than $1.2 trillion in market value since the June peak. Against that rout, Bernstein SocGen analyst Douglas Harned reiterated an Outperform rating and maintained a $239 price target in a note dated July 28, 2026, implying +110.57% projected upside from the reference price.
Starship Flight 13: A Mixed Result
The note followed SpaceX’s 13th Starship test flight, launched July 24, 2026, from Starbase, Texas, and the second flight of the V3 Starship version intended for Starlink and future lunar payloads. A prior attempt on July 16 was aborted last-second when four Super Heavy booster engines failed to ignite, and a July 23 attempt was scrubbed for weather.
On the successful attempt, only 8 of 13 booster engines relit for the landing burn, and 3 of those failed shortly after, producing a hard splashdown and loss of the booster. The upper stage, however, achieved a successful in-space engine relight and deployed 20 production Starlink V3 satellites. It was SpaceX’s first Starship test flight since its June 12, 2026 IPO.
Harned’s “Cautiously Positive” Read
Harned called the mission a “major success” despite “one material issue”, flagging that SpaceX has landed and reflown Starship boosters before, but only with the older V2 version; the V3 booster used in launches 12 and 13 has not yet demonstrated a successful landing and reuse. For track-record context, TipRanks ranks Harned 1,426 out of more than 12,300 analysts, with a 56% success rate and an average one-year return per rating of 12.9%.
The China Angle
Harned also addressed China’s recent successful landing of a Long March 10B rocket booster, roughly six months ahead of expectations. He argued the milestone is a competitive signal but not a threat, since China has not yet demonstrated booster reuse, a capability SpaceX has executed with Falcon 9 across roughly 165 launches in the past year. In his framing, that gap is widening in SpaceX’s favor.
The Broader Selloff
The stock’s trajectory since the IPO has been brutal. SPCX priced at $135 on June 12, spiked above $225, and has since retraced sharply, closing July 27 down 3.14% (-$3.61) from the prior close of $115.07. The 52-week range now spans $108.66 to $225.64. On Reddit, one of the most-upvoted recent posts was “Short sellers notch $15.5 billion profit as SpaceX shares slide”, underscoring how one-sided sentiment has turned.
Harned’s $239 target represents one analyst’s projection, not a market consensus. Prediction markets currently assign only a 4.0% probability of SPCX closing above $150 by month-end, a reminder that the crowd remains far more skeptical than the bull case implies.
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