Seagate’s Bull vs Bear Case Ahead of Tonight’s Q4 Earnings

That wraps up our initial coverage of Seagate’s Q4 results. Thank you for stopping by!

Seagate Technology expects its momentum to accelerate into fiscal 2027, guiding for first-quarter revenue of $4.1 billion, plus or minus $100 million, and adjusted EPS of $7.30, plus or minus $0.20.

At the midpoint, that represents approximately 13% sequential revenue growth and 28% sequential adjusted EPS growth from Q4. Management expects minimal impact from tariffs or the current Middle East conflict.

The outlook suggests Seagate’s record fiscal 2026 was more than a cyclical peak. Robust cloud data-center demand and the Mozaic HAMR ramp are carrying meaningful momentum into the new fiscal year.

Seagate’s Q4 revenue increased 48% year over year to $3.629 billion, but earnings grew considerably faster as the company captured massive operating leverage.

Adjusted gross margin expanded to 52.7% from 37.9%, while adjusted operating margin jumped to 44.6% from 26.2%. Adjusted EPS more than doubled to $5.71 from $2.59.

Higher-capacity drives allow cloud customers to store more data efficiently while enabling Seagate to generate substantially more profit from each dollar of revenue.

Seagate Technology just reported earnings, with shares initially up 1% following the report. Here are the key numbers:

• Revenue: $3.629 billion vs. $3.49 billion expected
• Adjusted EPS: $5.71 vs. $5.09 expected
• Adjusted Gross Margin: 52.7%
• Free Cash Flow: $1.1 billion

Quick Read:

Seagate beat revenue estimates by 4% and adjusted EPS estimates by 12%, with revenue rising 48% year over year.

Record annual free cash flow of $3.1 billion and robust cloud data-center demand strengthen the Mozaic and HAMR growth story heading into fiscal 2027.

Seagate Technology (NASDAQ:STX) earnings are due at 4:05 PM ET.

Company guidance: $3.45 billion in revenue and $5.00 non-GAAP EPS; Street consensus: $5.09 on $3.49 billion.

Key KPIs: non-GAAP gross margin (last: 47.0%), Mozaic HAMR qualifications, nearline exabyte shipments, free cash flow (last quarter: $953 million), and FY27 framing.

Fresh catalyst: Rosenblatt initiated coverage at Buy with a $1,300 target this afternoon, joining Wedbush and Morgan Stanley defending shares through the sector selloff.

Positioning is defensive. Put/call ratio: 1.21; shares at $750.60 after 8.13% intraday drop.

Trigger levels: EPS above $5.20 with margins expanding past 48% validates the AI storage thesis; a result under $5.00 with soft FY27 commentary risks a sharp reset given the 197.42% YTD rally.

Four Wildcards Not Priced Into Consensus

Beyond the headline guidance, four surprise factors could swing tonight’s reaction.

First, tariff escalation: management’s Q4 outlook assumed “minimal expected impact from global tariff policies”, leaving any commentary shift as unpriced risk.

Second, the Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2028 carry dilution that scales with the share price, currently $750.46.

Third, Pillar Two global minimum tax pushes Seagate (NASDAQ:STX)’s Ireland-domiciled effective rate into the mid-teens for FY2026, a potential tax-line surprise.

Fourth, exabyte shipments. Polymarket crowds assign 89.5% odds above 210 EB but only 39.5% above 220 EB. A reported figure above 220 EB would validate HAMR/Mozaic yield claims.

Shares already slid 8.14% today, and July 31 put/call volume ratio sits at 1.08, confirming that investors are hedging ahead of earnings.

This live blog is being updated by Thomas Richmond, a 24/7 Wall St. contributor. You’ll get expert analysis of Seagate Technologies’ earnings.

Simply stay on this page, and new updates will appear below automatically. We expect Seagate to release earnings shortly after 4:05 p.m. ET.

Seagate Technology reports fiscal Q4 earnings tonight at 4:05 PM ET after the bell, with management guiding to $3.45 billion in revenue and $5.00 in earnings per share at the midpoint.

The company is pursuing its fifth consecutive earnings beat, but expectations have soared alongside the stock’s 197.42% year-to-date rally. Investors will focus on the Mozaic HAMR ramp, cloud customer qualifications, and management’s initial framing of fiscal 2027 growth.

Seagate now trades at roughly 81 times trailing earnings, while the $1,008.61 average analyst target assumes continued HAMR-driven operating leverage. A clean beat could reinforce the structural growth story.

However, weaker exabyte shipments or qualification delays would revive concerns that Seagate remains a cyclical hard-drive company enjoying an unusually strong upturn.