In August 2024, candidate Donald Trump told a rally crowd that Joe Biden was “using the strategic reserves, which is meant for military, which is meant for war,” and pledged that “We have to fill up the strategic reserves immediately.”
Two years later, with the United States locked in a protracted conflict with Iran, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is doing the opposite of filling up. According to figures circulated by Geiger Capital and Hedgeye, the SPR has fallen roughly 25% in recent months and now sits at its lowest level in about 43 years, covering an estimated 16 days of U.S. oil demand, down from a 2009 peak of about 36 days.
The Numbers Behind the Reserve
The last verified inventory figure we can stand behind is 311 million barrels for the week ending May 22, 2026, roughly half the December 27, 2009 peak of 726.6 million barrels. The Biden administration drew the reserve down aggressively during the 2022 to 2023 energy shock, selling more than 200 million barrels at an average price of roughly $75 per barrel.
That drawdown was the political ammunition Trump used on the campaign trail. Under his own administration, as this publication reported in May, the SPR posted its largest single-week drain on record.
The Energy Information Administration’s own tables show the trajectory. Its May Short-Term Energy Outlook lists SPR crude at 413.5 million barrels at the end of 2025, falling to a forecast 243.5 million barrels by the end of 2026. That is the sharpest projected annual draw since the reserve was created after the 1973 Arab oil embargo.
Why the Reserve Is Draining Now
The trigger is the Strait of Hormuz. Military action that began February 28 effectively closed the chokepoint through which nearly 20% of global oil supply flowed. Brent averaged $117 per barrel in April and touched $138 on April 7, the highest monthly average since June 2022.
An interim U.S.-Iran deal reopened the strait in mid-June, but attacks have resumed. Houthi drone and missile strikes hit two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea on July 23, and Brent has climbed back above $100.
The pain has already reached the pump. Regular gasoline averaged $4.00 per gallon nationally in the week ending July 20, after peaking at $4.50 on May 11. WTI closed at $84.38 on July 20. The United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO), the retail-accessible proxy for crude, is up 80.39% year to date and 66.68% over the past twelve months.
What a Depleted Reserve Actually Means
The SPR exists to buy Washington time. When a supply shock lands, the president can release barrels to smooth prices while diplomacy or new production catches up. At 16 days of coverage, that cushion is thin. The reserve took decades to build and cannot be refilled quickly at today’s prices without either a spending commitment Congress has not made or a return of crude to the $60s that the current conflict makes unlikely.
The signal to watch over the next quarter is the weekly EIA petroleum status report. If the SPR figure keeps declining while Brent stays above $90, the Trump administration will face the same accusation it once leveled at its predecessor: draining a wartime reserve during a war. USO’s futures curve will tell the market’s story in real time. The reserve’s story will be told in the barrel count.
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