AST’s Guidance Will Drive the Market’s Reaction After Earnings Tonight

That wraps up our initial coverage of AST SpaceMobile’s Q2 results. Thank you for stopping by!

AST SpaceMobile now has more than 60 mobile network operator partnerships collectively covering over 3 billion subscribers worldwide.

This partner-first model could give the company enormous built-in distribution as it begins rolling out direct-to-device broadband services.

AST SpaceMobile’s next-generation Block 2 satellites are designed to deliver peak data speeds approaching 200 Mbps directly to standard, unmodified smartphones.

The company is preparing to launch beta services with select strategic partners in 2026 as its constellation and ground infrastructure continue to expand.

AST SpaceMobile generated $31.5 million in Q2 revenue as the company reached gateway-delivery and government-contract milestones.

Its revenue backlog also expanded to $1.3 billion, more than 41 times the revenue recognized during the quarter. Management maintained its full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $150-$200 million.

The massive backlog provides greater visibility into AST SpaceMobile’s future revenue opportunity, although the company must still execute a substantial commercial ramp during the second half of the year.

AST SpaceMobile said it continues preparing to launch its space-based cellular broadband beta service during 2026.

The initiative will provide scaled, non-commercial usage through strategic mobile network operator partners in select global markets, with 3,000 digital cells already activated across the continental United States.

The deployment of BlueBird satellites 8 through 13 brought six spacecraft into orbit within 50 days, expanding AST SpaceMobile’s constellation to 13 satellites with around 20,000 square feet of combined aperture hardware.

BlueBirds 14, 15, and 16 will be ready to ship shortly, while satellites 17 through 46 are in various stages of production and assembly.

AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) just reported earnings, with shares initially down 1% following the report. Here are the key numbers:

• Revenue: $31.5 million vs. $34.4 million expected
• EPS: ($0.77) vs. ($0.29) expected

Quick Read:

AST SpaceMobile missed revenue expectations by 8%, while its loss per share was substantially wider than analysts anticipated.

Revenue soared 2,627% year over year, and 114% sequentially.

Four specific catalysts could swing the market’s reaction to $ASTS’s earnings tonight beyond the 12% implied move:

• BlueBird 7 anomaly fallout: Management disclosed the loss of BB7 on New Glenn in mid-June, with Blue Origin investigating the upper stage. Any schedule slip for the handful of New Glenn-class launches needed to meet the 45-satellite target is unmodeled.
• Golden Dome timing: RFPs being issued could seed a lumpy government revenue print, with awards expected over the next six months.
• Non-cash remeasurement: Following Q1’s $88.65M in induced conversion expense, additional warrant and convertible mark-to-market gains tied to the recent rally could distort GAAP EPS.
• Multi-jurisdiction approvals: Ground integration across 2.9 billion people hinges on regulators in 17 countries. Any commentary on Japan, Saudi Arabia, or EU timing is a live catalyst.

Top 5 Analyst Questions

• Progress toward ~45 BlueBirds in orbit by year-end 2026?
• Timeline to convert MOUs into definitive contracts across nearly 60 MNO partners?
• Cash runway after Q2 capex guided to $575M-$650M?
• Block 2 peak speeds versus Block 1’s 98.9 Mbps benchmark?
• H2 commercial activation cadence across the U.S., Canada, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and the U.K.?

Key Topics Management Must Address

• BlueBird 11-13 August launch readiness and Falcon 9 manifest
• Government pipeline beyond the $30M SDA HALO prime contract
• Stock-based comp trajectory after Q1 $55.35M charge

Buzzwords to Listen For

• “Fortress balance sheet,” “launch cadence,” “commercial activation,” “Block 2,” “AI edge computing,” “vertically integrated manufacturing”

Red Flags

• Convertible raise, satellite slippage into 2027, MOU conversion delays, or softer FY26 revenue guidance below $150M

Guidance will set the tone tonight for AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS).

AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) shares currently trade at $68.72, down 4.47% intraday after last week’s 21.97% surge. Analysts’ average price target sits at $80.48.

Here are some key factors to watch ahead of tonight’s Q2 earnings:

KPIs on the Tape

• BlueBird 11-33 build progress against the 45-satellite year-end target
• MNO conversions from MOUs across nearly 60 partners
• Cash burn versus $3.03B liquidity after $261.6M Q1 capex

Move Triggers

Aug 21 options carry 120,507 call open interest against 70,016 puts, skewing decisively bullish.

Day-of reactions have swung from -11.62% to +8.36% over the past five quarters.

Revenue clearing the $34M bar, with reaffirmed FY guidance and a firm launch cadence, could ignite upside

However, another double miss or a delayed BlueBird timeline reopens downside toward June lows.

This live blog is being updated by Thomas Richmond, a 24/7 Wall St. contributor. Simply stay on this page, and new updates will appear below automatically.

We expect AST SpaceMobile to release Q2 earnings shortly after 4:30 p.m. ET.

Bull Case

• Guidance intact: Management reaffirmed FY2026 revenue of $150M-$200M, with roughly half backed by contracted backlog.
• Deployment momentum: BlueBirds 8, 9, and 10 launched on New Glenn in mid-June 2026, targeting ~45 satellites in orbit by year-end.
• Fortress balance sheet: $3.03B in cash and over $1.2 billion in contracted commitments fund the constellation buildout.
• Options skew bullish: Aug 14 calls outpace puts 1.99:1, with insider activity net buying.

Bear Case

• Miss streak: Q1 revenue landed -59.72% versus consensus; EPS came in at -$0.66.
• Widening losses: Q1 net loss hit $191.01M, weighed by $88.65M in induced conversion expense.
• Cash burn: Q2 capex guided to $575M-$650M, pressuring liquidity.
• Valuation risk: Shares trade at $69.25 after a 21.97% one-week rip.

AST SpaceMobile enters tonight’s Q2 earnings with its guidance under intense scrutiny. The company has missed expectations in five consecutive quarters, including a staggering 59.72% revenue shortfall in Q1.

Analysts will be watching management’s plans for satellite deployment. BlueBird satellites 8, 9, and 10 were operational as of June 28, while BlueBirds 11 through 13 are slated for August.

Options markets are pricing in about a 12% post-earnings move, while the company’s recent $1 billion convertible offering adds another layer to the risk-reward setup.

A clean quarter, reaffirmed guidance, and firm BlueBird deployment cadence could send $ASTS higher following tonight’s Q2 earnings report.