4 Wildcards That Could Surprise HIMS Investors in Tonight’s Q2 Results

That wraps up our initial coverage of Hims & Hers Health’s Q2 results. Thank you for stopping by!

Hims & Hers raised its full-year 2026 revenue outlook to between $3.1-$3.3 billion, while guiding for adjusted EBITDA between $275-$325 million.

For Q3, management expects revenue of $880-$900 million and adjusted EBITDA of $75-$95 million.

However, profitability deteriorated sharply in Q2. Gross margin fell to 64% from 76% one year ago, adjusted EBITDA declined to $60.3 million from $82.2 million, and the company swung from a $42.5 million net profit to an $86.3 million net loss.

That profitability pressure helps explain why HIMS stock is down 1% after announcing earnings despite strong revenue growth and the raised outlook.

Hims & Hers ended Q2 with nearly 2.9 million subscribers, up 19% from 2.4 million one year ago.

The company also generated monthly revenue per average subscriber of $92, representing a 21% year-over-year increase from $76.

The combination of subscriber growth and higher revenue per customer helped drive total revenue 38% higher during the quarter.

Management said its growing customer relationships and investments in a doctor-led AI clinical engine are increasing the depth and reach of its healthcare platform.

Hims & Hers delivered $753.2 million in Q2 revenue, representing 38% year-over-year growth and a significant acceleration from the start of 2026.

U.S. revenue increased 16% to $621.8 million, while international revenue climbed more than 17-fold to $131.4 million, aided by the completion of the Eucalyptus acquisition in June.

Management expects domestic growth to accelerate further during the second half of the year as the company expands its personalized healthcare platform.

Hims & Hers Health just reported earnings, with shares initially down 6% following the report. Here are the key numbers:

• Revenue: $753.2 million vs. $730.1 million expected
• EPS: ($0.37) vs. ($0.05) expected
• Adjusted EBITDA: $60.3 million vs. $45 million expected
• Gross Margin: 64% vs. 76% one year ago
• Free Cash Flow: ($68.2) million

Guidance:

• Q3 revenue: $890 million
• Q3 adjusted EBITDA: $85 million
• FY2026 revenue: $3.2 billion
• FY2026 adjusted EBITDA: $300 million

Quick Read:

Revenue climbed 38% year over year and beat expectations, but Hims & Hers posted a substantially wider-than-expected loss as gross margin contracted by 12 percentage points.

Management raised its 2026 revenue outlook and reaffirmed confidence in its 2030 targets.

Layered on top of the catalysts already flagged, here are four new factors that could reshape the market’s reaction tonight for Hims & Hers.

• ARPU Erosion. Monthly revenue per subscriber slipped to $80 from $85 in Q1, a 6% decline as branded GLP-1s displaced compounded mix. A second consecutive step-down would pressure the FY revenue bridge.
• Convertible Overhang. The ~$1B convertible debt from the May 2025 offering complicates the $250M buyback pace; aggressive repurchases against dilution math could surprise.
• Legal Tail. $15M in Q1 legal settlement costs plus unresolved securities class actions tied to the Novo termination remain a P&L wildcard.
• Canada Generic Semaglutide. Planned 2026 launch could reframe the international growth narrative if management provides a timeline tonight.

With roughly 20 minutes until earnings, here’s what could move Hims & Hers Health (NYSE:HIMS) stock after earnings.

What Moves the Stock Tonight

• Revenue trigger: Beat above $700M; miss below $680M.
• Adjusted EBITDA trigger: Above $55M bullish; below $35M bearish.
• Subscribers: Reacceleration past 9% YoY off the 2.6M base validates the GLP-1 pivot.
• ARPU: Reversal of the $80 monthly figure (from $85) would ease margin fears.
• FY26 guide: Any move on the $2.8B-$3.0B range is the primary catalyst.

Historical context: Missed quarters averaged a -3.41% day-of move, but Q2 2025 sent the stock down -12.36%.

Options imply a sizable swing, so keep an eye on the stock into the earnings report.

This live blog is being updated by Thomas Richmond, a 24/7 Wall St. contributor. Simply stay on this page, and new updates will appear below automatically.

We expect Hims and Hers Health to release Q2 earnings shortly after 4:05 p.m. ET.

Ahead of tonight’s Q2 report, Hims & Hers Health (NYSE:HIMS) trades near $31.65, with Polymarket now pricing a 62% miss probability, up from the 57% cited earlier.

Bull Case

• Subscribers reached nearly 2.6 million, and international revenue surged 969% YoY to $78.19 million.
• CFO Yemi Okupe guided to a “meaningful step-up in adjusted EBITDA dollars in the third and fourth quarters.”
• Shares rallied 13.76% over the past week, and a $250 million buyback sits ready.

Bear Case

• HIMS missed 5 of the last 6 quarters, averaging -3.41% day-of declines on misses.
• Q1 U.S. revenue fell 8% YoY; GAAP gross margin compressed to 65% from 73%.
• Composite sentiment sits at 29.78 (Bearish), with insiders net selling across 94 recent transactions.

Hims & Hers Health heads into its Q2 earnings report with management guiding for revenue between $680-$700 million.

After the company missed top-line expectations in Q1, investors will want to see a return to stronger growth and execution, as well as evidence that gross margins can recover from the previous quarter’s 65% level.

Prediction markets currently assign a 57% probability that Hims & Hers misses expectations, while Reddit sentiment has turned heavily bearish.

Wall Street’s average price target of $29.23 also implies roughly 8.48% downside from current levels.

Despite this negativity, a strong revenue beat tonight accompanied by stabilizing margins could revive confidence in the company’s healthcare platform and its path toward $6.5 billion in revenue by 2030.

However, a second consecutive miss would strengthen the bearish case and potentially give management an earlier opportunity to deploy its recently authorized share repurchase program.