Intel (NASDAQ: INTC | INTC Price Prediction) and Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI) both delivered AI-fueled quarters and both got sold. Intel posted 25.42% revenue growth, its strongest in 15 years, then dropped 11.04% the next day. Supermicro grew 93.16% and still missed revenue by $443.2M.
Where the Quarters Actually Landed
Intel’s engine was Data Center and AI, which produced $6.26 billion at 59% YoY growth. Client Computing added $8.88 billion, and Foundry pulled in $5.77 billion while still bleeding $2.1 billion in operating losses. CEO Lip-Bu Tan called it a quarter driven by “greater speed, accountability, and customer focus.” Investors focused on the $11.03 billion GAAP net loss tied to a CHIPS Act escrow charge.
Supermicro’s story was about margin expansion. Gross margin expanded to 17.5% from 9.5% a year earlier, operating income jumped 551.54%, and CEO Charles Liang cited “more than $60 billion in new orders” and record backlog. The catch: full-year operating cash flow was negative $6.8 billion from a working capital build.
One Diluted Shareholders. The Other Leaned on Debt.
The businesses diverge sharply on capital structure. Intel’s foundry buildout forced a massive common equity raise straight into the market at pressured prices, diluting existing shareholders by roughly one-fifth. Reddit picked up on it quickly, with the $15 billion common stock offering announcement flipping sentiment to bearish overnight. Supermicro, in contrast, financed its balance sheet primarily through debt and convertibles, keeping common equity dilution under 3%.
| Lens | Intel | Supermicro |
| Core Bet | Vertical foundry plus Xeon 6 | DCBBS modular AI racks |
| Financing Lever | Common equity issuance | Debt and convertibles |
| Key Vulnerability | $2.1B Foundry losses | Export-control review |
Insider action added noise. Intel’s CFO sold 18,353 shares at $109.82 in June before the slide. Supermicro’s CEO and a 10% owner each disposed of 340,000 shares on May 26.
The Next Test Is Whether Guidance Holds
Intel guided Q3 revenue to $15.8B to $16.8B with non-GAAP gross margin near 42%. I will watch whether 18A ramps cleanly and whether Panther Lake actually shows up in client mix. Supermicro guided FY2027 revenue to $65B to $72B. Worth tracking: whether the enterprise mix keeps pushing margins up, and whether Blackwell Ultra shipments concentrate risk again.
Why I Would Rather Wait on Both
I am not eager to chase either. Intel’s operational turn is real, but issuing common equity at depressed prices to fund a Foundry still losing billions makes me want to see one more quarter of margin proof. Supermicro’s 30.09% one-year decline and unresolved export-control review are hard to underwrite. Investors seeking scale plus government backing may find Intel’s setup more compelling; those focused on an AI hardware turnaround with real backlog may lean toward Supermicro. I would rather wait until the dilution stops and the review closes.
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