SpaceX’s High-Margin Software Business Could Soon Hit $33 Billion. Investors Are Underestimating It.

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By Trey Thoelcke Published

Quick Read

  • Morgan Stanley targets SPCX at $300, projecting its $60B Cursor acquisition drives ARR to $33B by 2030, exceeding GOOGL's current Google Cloud revenue.

  • Cursor sits inside 64% of Fortune 500 companies, yet SpaceX's software layer is priced at a fraction of what AI peers command per ARR dollar.

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SpaceX’s High-Margin Software Business Could Soon Hit $33 Billion. Investors Are Underestimating It.

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The market has spent August obsessing over 911.5 million shares unlocking from the SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) post-IPO lockup. Investors are missing the more consequential story in the balance sheet. Morgan Stanley has issued a note setting a $300 price target with a $600 bull case, anchored on a specific claim: Cursor, the AI coding platform SpaceX is acquiring, is already used by more than 64% of the Fortune 500 and 50,000 enterprises. Morgan Stanley projects Cursor’s annual recurring revenue at $8 billion by year end and roughly $33 billion by 2030.

That is the profile of a top-tier software business tucked inside a launch and satellite company. To rank the highest-margin AI software franchises embedded inside larger tech platforms, we evaluated three variables: scale of the software layer today, sustained growth rate, and margin durability against rising capex. Here are the top four.

4. ServiceNow

ServiceNow (NYSE:NOW) has the cleanest AI monetization story in enterprise software. Q2 FY2026 subscription revenue grew 24.5% year over year, and ServiceNow AI crossed $1 billion in annual contract value with agentic deployments up ninefold in nine months. Management raised FY26 subscription guidance to $15.76 billion to $15.78 billion and is operating to a Rule of 56, with a long-term target of $30 billion in subscription revenues by 2030. Shares are down 25.5% over the past year. The AI layer, while high quality, remains $1 billion inside a much larger operation.

3. Microsoft

Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) has the largest embedded AI franchise in the group. Q4 FY2026 revenue hit $90.007 billion with non-GAAP diluted EPS of $4.74. Azure grew 43% and crossed $100 billion in annual revenue for the first time, while Microsoft 365 Copilot passed 30 million paid seats. Commercial remaining performance obligations reached $678 billion, up 84% year over year. AI business run rate hit $37 billion as of Q3. At a 28x P/E, this is the benchmark for scale. Growth is decelerating relative to the top two, while FY26 capex climbed to $115.948 billion.

2. Alphabet

Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) owns the fastest-scaling cloud franchise. Q2 2026 Google Cloud revenue hit $24.77 billion, growing 82% year over year, , an acceleration from the prior quarter,. Gemini models process 22 billion API tokens per minute, the Gemini App has 950 million monthly active users, and nearly 90% of the Fortune 100 uses Gemini Enterprise. Google Cloud backlog stood above $460 billion at the end of Q1. Consolidated operating margin expanded to 34% even as Q2 capex doubled to $44.92 billion. At an 18x P/E, this is the highest-quality growth trading at the deepest discount inside the mega-caps.

1. SpaceX

SpaceX is the underappreciated software story on this list. The AI segment posted $2.561 billion in Q2 2026 revenue, up 247% year over year. Connectivity added another $4.291 billion, up 66% year over year, with Enterprise and Government segments up 108%. Total revenue was $7.814 billion, a 14.59% beat, and adjusted EBITDA grew 191% to $3.54 billion. Starlink subscribers doubled to 12 million. The pending $60 billion Cursor acquisition, expected to close in Q3, layers a proven high-margin coding platform on top of 1.4 GW of AI compute and $14.1 billion in contracted cloud services agreements. Semi Analysis expects SpaceX to exit 2027 with $26 billion in ARR from AI applications. Shares closed at $133.29, up 6.4% on the week as the lockup overhang was absorbed.

Why This Ranking Holds Together

Each of the top four owns an AI software business that is scaling faster than its parent revenue base, with margin durability that improves as capex normalizes. ServiceNow proves the enterprise agentic model at $1 billion ACV. Microsoft proves the seat model at 30 million Copilot users. Alphabet proves the platform model at 82% cloud growth. SpaceX is where the market has yet to price the software layer. Cursor already sits inside 64% of the Fortune 500, and Morgan Stanley’s $33 billion ARR projection by 2030 would place it above the standalone scale of Google Cloud today. Factoring in the $44.92 billion capex comparison, the SpaceX software business is priced at a fraction of what its peers command per dollar of forward ARR. If the market wakes up to that trajectory, Morgan Stanley’s $300 target looks conservative.

SPCX price target

 

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Photo of Trey Thoelcke
About the Author Trey Thoelcke →

Trey has been an editor and author at 24/7 Wall St. for more than a decade, where he has published thousands of articles analyzing corporate earnings, dividend stocks, short interest, insider buying, private equity, and market trends. His comprehensive coverage spans the full spectrum of financial markets, from blue-chip stalwarts to emerging growth companies.

Beyond 24/7 Wall St., Trey has created and edited financial content for Benzinga and AOL's BloggingStocks, contributing additional hundreds of articles to the investment community. He previously oversaw the 24/7 Climate Insights site, managing editorial operations and content strategy, and currently oversees and creates content for My Investing News.

Trey's editorial expertise extends across multiple publishing environments. He served as production editor at Dearborn Financial Publishing and development editor at Kaplan, where he helped shape financial education materials. Earlier in his career, he worked as a writer-producer at SVE. His freelance editing portfolio includes work for prestigious clients such as Sage Publications, Rand McNally, the Institute for Supply Management, the American Library Association, Eggplant Literary Productions, and Spiegel.

Outside of financial journalism, Trey writes fiction and has been an active member of the writing community for years, overseeing a long-running critique group and moderating workshop sessions at regional conventions. He lives with his family in an old house in the Midwest.

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