Is Micron or Sandisk Better Poised For Upside Through The End of September?
Micron and Sandisk both just posted blowout memory quarters, but the two stocks face very different setups heading into late September. One looks like a high-conviction institutional hold, and the other may have already burned through its near-term catalyst.
Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU | MU Price Prediction) and Sandisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) both just posted blowout memory quarters, but for very different reasons. Micron delivered $41.5 billion in fiscal Q3 revenue on the back of HBM and DRAM. Sandisk followed weeks later with a NAND-only quarter that reset expectations. With Micron reporting again in late September, the near-term setup between the two looks sharply different.
HBM Carries Micron. NAND Pricing Carries Sandisk.
Micron’s quarter was defined by AI memory. Data center revenue exceeded $25 billion in fiscal Q3, an annualized run rate above $100 billion, and HBM4 shipments already topped $1 billion. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra called memory “a strategic asset” in the AI era, and the numbers back him up: gross margin hit 84.9% and operating margin 81.2%.
Sandisk’s Q4 was equally striking, just narrower in scope. Revenue reached $8,965 million, driven roughly one-third by volume and two-thirds by pricing. Data center revenue jumped 103% sequentially. CEO David Goeckeler framed the shift bluntly: “We closed fiscal 2026 with a leading technology portfolio, established datacenter as a key growth pillar, and deepened our customer partnerships.”
Two Contracted Revenue Playbooks, Two Different Ceilings
| Lens | Micron | Sandisk |
| Core Bet | DRAM and HBM4 for AI accelerators | NAND flash for data center and edge |
| Contracted Revenue | ~$100B across 16 SCAs | $93.9B minimum across 10 NBMs |
| Next Q Revenue Guide | $50B ± $1B | $10.3B–$10.8B |
| Key Vulnerability | Heavy capex, customer concentration | NAND pricing cyclicality |
Micron’s Strategic Customer Agreements now cover roughly 20% of DRAM volume and one-third of NAND volume, with floor gross margins Mehrotra says will run “well beyond the peaks that we experienced” in prior cycles. Sandisk’s model rhymes but leans lighter, with $16.5 billion in financial guarantees and gross margins targeted “around 80%”. The structural difference: Micron controls the DRAM and HBM bottleneck that hyperscaler AI clusters cannot substitute around.
September Hinges on Micron’s Next Report
Sandisk already released its catalyst on August 5, 2026, and shares are up 21.42% over the past week. The next scheduled setup for Micron is its fiscal Q4 report in late September, backed by an 8-quarter beat streak and management guidance of $31 EPS ± $1. Polymarket traders currently peg a 64.5% probability that MU hits $1,020 during August, with the crowd expecting further breakout potential into month-end.
Why I Lean Toward Micron Into Late September
For my money, Micron is the higher-conviction position through September. Its direct ownership of the HBM3e/HBM4 supply chain, combined with an ~81% operating margin and an unusually low 6x forward P/E, makes it the higher-conviction institutional hold as hyperscalers increase their CapEx allocations. Sandisk looks like the better trade if you want torque off Investor Day momentum, but the NAND ceiling caps the story. I would only shift my view if Micron’s late-September guidance signals HBM4 slippage or if hyperscaler capex commentary softens materially. Until then, DRAM scarcity does the heavy lifting.
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Alex Sirois is a financial writer with experience spanning both retail and institutional investing. He has written for InvestorPlace and held roles at BNY Mellon and Bernstein, giving him a perspective that bridges Main Street portfolios and Wall Street analysis.
Alex holds an MBA from George Washington University and has built his career across multiple industries, including e-commerce, education, and translation — a breadth of experience that informs how he breaks down complex financial topics for everyday investors. His writing is conversational, actionable, and grounded in long-term, buy-and-hold investing principles.
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