DraftKings Shed 34.26% in a Year. Its Biggest Bull Has Now Gone Neutral
DraftKings just posted its first-ever profitable year, yet its longest-standing bull on Wall Street walked away from the stock. Here is what spooked Argus and whether the rest of the Street is paying attention.
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DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG | DKNG Price Prediction) has had a rough stretch in 2026. Shares are down 26.61% year to date as of Friday’s close and 43.22% over the past year, trading at $26.17 against a 52-week high of $48.78. Now, Argus has formalized what the price action has been signaling, cutting the stock to Hold from Buy and removing its price target.
Argus cited high customer acquisition costs, rising state gaming taxes and aggressive competition from prediction markets as the primary drivers of the downgrade. The firm also flagged that DraftKings has been losing market share in U.S. Internet gaming, and cut its estimates accordingly.
However, the broader analyst community remains more constructive, with 30 Buy ratings, eight Hold ratings and two Sell ratings and a consensus price target of $34.11, implying meaningful upside from current levels.
The Case Against DKNG Right Now
The Argus downgrade lands despite a genuinely strong Q4. DraftKings posted Q4 revenue of nearly $2 billion, up 43% year-over-year, and adjusted EPS of 36 cents, doubling the 18-cent consensus estimate. Full-year 2025 marked the company’s first-ever GAAP net profit.
But the concern is forward-looking: The company is making a large bet on DraftKings Predictions, its federally regulated event contracts platform, and that investment carries real near-term cost.
Management acknowledged the spend will run into “tens of millions” in incremental costs, covering new headcount, technology buildout and customer acquisition. CEO Jason Robins was direct about the competitive stakes: “Speed and execution, combined with a strong brand, smooth interface and real sports modeling, trading and technology expertise will determine long-term leadership.” That confidence may be warranted, but it does not eliminate the execution risk.
Key Risks to Monitor
The tax environment is the most unpredictable variable. DraftKings’ 2026 guidance of $6.5 billion to $6.9 billion in revenue and $700 million to $900 million in adjusted EBITDA explicitly assumes state tax rates hold steady. Any increases in states like New Jersey, Illinois or Louisiana could compress margins meaningfully. Robins acknowledged the pressure but expressed optimism: “States would be absolutely crazy right now to raise OSB taxes with everything going on with Predictions.”
Short interest has also climbed, with DKNG short interest at 8.03% of float, up 7.79% since the last report and above the peer average of 6.98%. The average analyst price target has declined from $44.58 to $38.80 over recent months, reflecting a broader reassessment of the growth timeline.
The core business fundamentals remain intact. But with Argus stepping to the sidelines, rising costs ahead, and tax uncertainty unresolved — factors the broader analyst community will likely continue to weigh.
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Joel South covers large-cap stocks, dividend investing, and major market trends, with a focus on earnings analysis, valuation, and turning complex data into actionable insights for investors.
He brings more than 15 years of experience as an investor and financial journalist, including 12 years at The Motley Fool, where he served as an investment analyst, Bureau Chief, and later led the Fool.com investing news desk. He has also co-hosted an investing podcast and appeared across TV and radio discussing market trends.
