Price Prediction: DKNG Stock Will Hit $50 on This Date
DraftKings is down 30% this year even as its CEO insists the core business is firing on all cylinders, and a specific date in 2028 could mark the moment that gap finally closes in a big way.
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DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG | DKNG Price Prediction) is the rare growth story where the operating business is accelerating and the stock is still going the wrong way.
Shares sit at $23.87 after a brutal 30.73% year-to-date decline, even as CEO Jason Robins told investors “the core business is firing” and reaffirmed a path to roughly $1 billion of adjusted EBITDA from the core in 2026. The question I want to answer: can DKNG double from here and reach $50 by March 2028?
Why DraftKings Shares Are Stuck Despite a Firing Core Business
The Q2 miss did real damage. DraftKings reported adjusted EPS of $0.09 against a $0.1917 estimate, a 53.05% whiff, while revenue fell 4.58% year over year to $1.44 billion.
Sports Net Revenue Margin compressed to 6.8% from 8.7% on customer-friendly outcomes, and sales and marketing spend jumped to $322.54 million from $233.19 million as Predictions launched.
Adjusted EBITDA collapsed to $114.60 million from $300.64 million a year earlier. With a beta of 1.628, the drawdown was violent. Shares are down 48.47% over the past year and off 0.67% in the last month.
Wall Street Sees Big Upside. Our Model Disagrees
Analysts remain firmly in the bull camp. The consensus target is $35.17, with 5 Strong Buy, 24 Buy, 6 Hold, and 1 Strong Sell rating. Our own model is far more cautious. It pegs the one-year base case at $20.30, implying -14.96% downside, with high 0.9 confidence and a hold action.
The bull case, however, tags $44.99 in twelve months. Analyst bullishness sits at 81%, and I think that group is right about the direction but the timing depends entirely on Predictions monetization. If DKX scales as advertised, the Street’s direction is right but the timing is too early.
Charting a Path to $50 Per Share
Reaching $50 from today’s price of $23.87 would require a gain of 109.5%. That is a stretch, and I will not pretend otherwise. With forward EPS of $0.41, a price of $50 implies a forward P/E of 122x.
Our base case of $20.30 already implies 61x, meaning the bold target requires roughly 61x of additional multiple expansion, or a dramatic upward reset in forward EPS as Predictions gets credited.
That is where the story gets interesting. The 247Factor adjustment sits at 1.111, driven by strong analyst consensus (+0.047) and earnings acceleration (+0.03 on 184.6% YoY growth), partially offset by higher volatility.
Predictions volume already grew nearly 5x, from $2.3 billion in April to $11 billion in July, with more than 600,000 customers engaged year-to-date.
Robins argues DraftKings can “generate lifetime values on predictions customers similar to those on our sportsbook customers”, and management is targeting a $55 billion to $80 billion industry opportunity by 2030 at a 30% long-term adjusted EBITDA margin.
Our own bull-case path first crosses $50 at $50.23 on March 9, 2028. The primary risk: regulatory action against prediction markets erasing the entire second growth engine.
Where DraftKings Trades Today vs Its Earnings Power
At $23.87 on forward EPS of $0.41, DKNG trades at roughly 58x forward earnings. That looks rich until you remember EBITDA is inflecting toward $1 billion in the core and Predictions is still pre-monetization.
Shares sit well off the $46.32 52-week high and only modestly above the $20.46 low. Over ten years, DKNG is still up 143.57%, but the five-year return of -62.51% shows how brutal the reset has been.
$50 Is a Stretch, But Here’s Why It’s Possible
To hit $50 by March 2028, DKNG needs a 109.5% gain from here. That is aggressive, and my verdict is that it sits between a stretch and a long shot on a two-year timeline.
Three things need to go right: Predictions has to scale into meaningful revenue with the LTV Robins is promising, the core sportsbook must deliver the promised $1 billion in EBITDA, and forward EPS needs to reset materially higher as operating leverage kicks in.
Adverse regulatory rulings on event contracts would derail the entire thesis. Returns at this level shouldn’t be expected every year, but we’ve outlined the blueprint for how DraftKings could reach $50 in 2028.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Vandita Jadeja is a financial publisher with over a decade of experience writing about financial topics, including investment, savings, retirement, insurance and banking. Vandita is a Chartered Accountant who loves to debunk financial concepts for readers.
Her work has appeared on sites that include The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, and Benzinga. She covers investing and focuses on stock picks and price prediction for 24/7 Wall St.
When not looking for the next stock investment opportunity, she can be found traveling, reading, chasing sunsets and enjoying her iced latte.
