Where Canon Can Actually Disrupt ASML

ASML (NASDAQ: ASML | ASML Price Prediction) just delivered a record quarter fueled by AI chip demand. Canon (OTC: CAJPY) is pushing nanoimprint lithography into memory and mature logic instead of chasing EUV. Two lithography players, two philosophies, one increasingly crowded fab equipment market where cost per wafer suddenly matters.

AI Backlog Fuels ASML. Nanoimprint Buys Canon Time.

ASML posted Q2 revenue of $10.65 billion, up 21.25% year over year, with EPS of 8.6688 marking a fourth consecutive beat. Installed Base Management alone brought in $3.15 billion, driven by upgrade demand on already-deployed tools. CEO Christophe Fouquet said “Our order intake remained extremely strong in the first half of the year”, and management now expects EUV net system sales to grow over 45% this year.

Canon does not disclose lithography results at that granularity. The relevant story is strategic: its FPA-1200NZ2C nanoimprint platform targets memory and mature logic customers who never needed EUV. That is a real niche.

Monopoly Playbook Vs. Cheap-Chip Wedge

ASML is spending like a company with no direct EUV competitor. It plans to add 30% more low NA EUV capacity for 2027 and is studying another 30% for 2028. A €12 billion buyback and a €1.3 billion Mistral AI partnership reinforce the message. Forward P/E sits at 39x, which is rich but understandable given 53.9% return on equity.

Canon’s angle is asymmetric. It cannot beat ASML at 2nm. If nanoimprint delivers acceptable defectivity on NAND or specialty logic, Canon captures wafers ASML would rather not chase. That is where disruption lives, though I am skeptical it goes further.

Where Canon’s Wedge Actually Bites

ASML expects China to represent around 20% of total net sales this year, with China revenue set to decline significantly in 2026 under export controls. Canon operates under a different regulatory regime out of Japan. If Chinese fabs pivot to mature and specialty processes, that is Canon’s zone. A marquee memory customer publicly qualifying nanoimprint for production would change the conversation.

Why I Still Lean ASML, But Keep A Small Bookmark On Canon

I lean ASML. The EUV monopoly, record backlog, and installed-base annuity read like a business that has earned its $677 billion market cap. Shares are up 141.44% over the past year, so the entry point is uncomfortable. Canon fits a different investor: someone hunting an underfollowed name where CAJPY’s underfollowed profile already prices in low expectations. If nanoimprint scores a real memory design win, that thesis has teeth. Until then, ASML carries the stronger fundamental profile while Canon stays a watchlist idea.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.