Regular session
$124.63
+3.08%
open $120.91
Semtech is up 3.08% to $124.63 hours before its earnings report lands, so buyers are paying up ahead of the numbers. Any guidance surprise resets that bet tonight.
Live Coverage
Updates appear automatically as they are published.
Live: Will Semtech’s Q2 Earnings Tonight Send Its Stock Higher?
By
Thomas Richmond
Published
Quick Read
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SMTC guides Q2 revenue to $328M (+27% YoY) and EPS of $0.61 after shares dropped 21.6% last week despite a 137% one-year rally.
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GaN chip demand outstrips supply by 3x as Semtech races to double or triple capacity ahead of its critical 1.6T monetization ramp.
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Live Updates
Semtech Stock Jumps 4% Today Ahead of Tonight's Q2 Earnings
Live
Semtech’s 1.6T Ramp Takes Center Stage in Tonight's Q2 Earnings
Live
Semtech heads into tonight’s fiscal second-quarter report guiding for $328 million in revenue and adjusted EPS of about $0.61.
FiberEdge 800G deployments and initial 1.6T shipments make this quarter a proving ground for the company’s data-center acceleration story.
Shares fell 8% last week despite remaining up 136.66% over the past year. With an average analyst price target of $201.38 and Polymarket traders pricing a 73.5% probability of an earnings beat, guidance will carry more weight than the headline results.
Confident commentary around second-half 1.6T demand, capacity, and margins could send Semtech stock higher tonight.
Semtech (NASDAQ:SMTC) is expected to report Q2 FY27 earnings today at 4:05 PM ET. The connectivity chipmaker has become one of the year’s biggest AI-adjacent winners, with the stock up 144% in the past year.
Momentum Meets Execution Risk
Q1 FY27 posted record revenue of $291.00 million, up 16% year over year, with adjusted diluted EPS of $0.51, up 34%. Signal Integrity revenue surged to $102.00 million from $73.50 million a year earlier, and data-center net sales hit a record $71.6 million, up 39% year over year.
Adjusted operating margin expanded to 20.4% from 19.0%, and free cash flow reached $28.00 million. SMTC trades near $125.83, up 64.08% YTD, though it gave back 21.6% in the past week alone as the AI-connectivity trade cooled.
Consensus and Guidance
| Metric | Q2 FY27 Guide (Mid) | Implied YoY | FY27 Prior-Year Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $328.0M | +27% | FY26 rev $1.05B |
| Adj. EPS | $0.61 | +49% | FY26 EPS $1.71 |
| Adj. Gross Margin | 54.0% | +100 bps vs Q1 | Semi GM 62.1% |
| Adj. Op. Margin | 21.9% | +150 bps vs Q1 | Q1 20.4% |
What I’m Watching Tonight: Capacity, 1.6T Ramps, and LoRa’s Second Act
Tonight, I’ll be watching four main things:
- First, 1.6T monetization. Management called 800G FiberEdge the foundation of data-center growth and telegraphed initial 1.6T FRO shipments in Q2, with CopperEdge 1.6T already flowing to a US hyperscaler. Analysts will be looking for granularity on 1.6T mix and LPO or LRO qualification progress.
- Second, capacity. Hong Hou framed the environment bluntly, saying “This is a time capacity is king,” and Semtech is working to double or triple capacity with foundry and OSAT partners. GaN chip demand currently exceeds supply by about 3x.
- Third, LoRa. Management is targeting an all-time high with greater than 15% sequential LoRa growth in Q2, positioning LoRa Plus as an Edge AI enabler across smart utilities, buildings, and asset tracking.
- Fourth, operating leverage and portfolio moves. Q1 SG&A fell 200 basis points to 15.1% of sales while R&D climbed to 17.6%. Investors will be watching how the revenue mix absorbs the 1.6T ramp and whether the cellular-module divestiture reaches signing.
Earnings History
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | 1-Day Move | 1-Week Move | 30-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY27 | +12.48% | -4.41% | +1.32% | -8.94% |
| Q4 FY26 | +2.02% | -11.00% | -14.02% | +15.10% |
| Q3 FY26 | +7.87% | +2.33% | +2.34% | +5.54% |
| Q2 FY26 | +2.17% | -1.00% | -1.35% | +7.24% |
On average, shares moved 2.69% seven days after earnings over the past year.
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About the Author
Thomas Richmond →
Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 250 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.
Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.
He specializes in breaking down complex companies into clear, actionable insights for everyday investors, with a focus on fundamentals-driven research.
His work has also been featured on platforms including Seeking Alpha and Sure Dividend.
Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.
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