Qualcomm Just Gained 15% in a Month: Take Profits, or Buy More?
Qualcomm stock has clawed back from a post-earnings collapse and then some, but the recovery hides a complicated mix of shrinking handsets, unproven data center bets, and margin pressure that makes the next move anything but obvious.
Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM | QCOM Price Prediction) has staged the standout comeback in chips this past month, and the rally deserves a closer look before anyone acts on it. Qualcomm stock is up 15% over the past month, and shares are climbing another 4% to $170.26 in Monday midday trading.
Framing contrast matters here. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX) is up 0.8% over the past month, essentially flat, which points to a Qualcomm-specific catalyst rather than a broad chip sector tide lifting every boat.
Here is the round trip that the headline number hides. Qualcomm reported fiscal third-quarter 2026 results on July 29, when the stock traded at $164.60, and it closed the following day at $147.61. The past month begins at that post-earnings low, so the 15% gain is Qualcomm climbing back through its pre-earnings level and past it.
What Sparked the Rebound
The July 29 report was mixed. Qualcomm’s non-GAAP earnings of $2.21 per share missed the $2.22 consensus, snapping a six-quarter beat streak, while revenue of $9.95 billion beat the $9.67 billion consensus but fell 4% from a year earlier.
Moreover, Qualcomm’s segment mix told a diversification story. Handset revenue dropped 20% to $5.09 billion, automotive surged 61% year over year to a record $1.59 billion, its 23rd consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, and IoT rose 9% to $1.83 billion. Qualcomm guided for fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $9.7 billion to $10.5 billion and non-GAAP earnings of $2.05 to $2.25 per share.
The recovery took hold on a closer reading of the earnings call. Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon laid out a data center and diversification pitch that reframed the company’s story around future non-handset scale, and the stock has been climbing since.
Bull Case
Amon told analysts, “We are well positioned to execute on the vision we outlined at our recent Investor Day, with total non-handset revenues growing to $40 billion by fiscal 2029.” That target is nearly double the one Qualcomm shared in November 2024.
The specifics carry weight. Data center revenue is guided to $5 billion in fiscal 2027 rising to $15 billion in fiscal 2029, and year-over-year growth in non-handset revenue including data center should accelerate from 24% in fiscal 2026 to greater than 60% in fiscal 2027. Two custom silicon engagements with global-scale hyperscalers begin generating revenue in the December quarter, and wafer production has started.
In addition, the company’s automotive segment keeps compounding. Qualcomm won an expanded agreement with BMW to become lead compute silicon provider for next-generation ADAS and digital cockpit, and raised its automotive annualized run rate target to roughly $7 billion exiting fiscal 2026, up from $6 billion.
Peer strength has reinforced the AI infrastructure bid around Qualcomm. Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL) stock is up 12% over the past month, and NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock is up 9% over the past month, keeping data center demand front and center (we rounded up seven non-chipmaker suppliers riding the same buildout in a free AI infrastructure report).
Bear Case
The handset business is still shrinking. Qualcomm expects its share of the upcoming iPhone launch to be materially lower than its prior 20% estimate, with Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) product revenue falling 50% from the September to the December quarter.
Qualcomm’s margins have a hole to climb out of, too. Industry-wide input cost inflation across wafer fabrication, packaging and memory has pushed QCT gross margins slightly below their historical 48% to 50% range, and management said early data center revenue will be a further 1.5 to 2 percentage point drag on QCT’s weighted average gross margin.
Qualcomm is raising its prices by double digits to offset input costs, but those increases arrive gradually as contracts and product cycles roll over. The data center story is mostly a fiscal 2027 and beyond narrative, so a buyer at $170 is paying for execution that hasn’t happened yet, on top of an existing handset drag.
What to Watch
The next fiscal fourth-quarter report is the pivotal data point, given the guidance range Qualcomm set. Investors can watch for signs that non-handset growth is tracking toward the 60%-plus acceleration Amon flagged for fiscal 2027, and whether the December-quarter data center ramp arrives on schedule with the two named hyperscaler customers.
Position sizing should reflect the round trip. The 15% gain has already retraced the earnings-day gap, so anyone adding to Qualcomm stock here is no longer buying a discount off the pre-earnings quote.
Investors trimming a large position may want to keep an eye on whether pricing actions restore gross margins into the historical 48% to 50% band before committing fresh capital. Both bulls and bears have a real case, and the December-quarter report is where the tie gets broken.
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David Moadel is financial writer specializing in stocks, ETFs, options, precious metals, and Bitcoin. David has written well over 1,000 articles for leading online publications, helping investors understand markets, income strategies, and risk.
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