Rocket Lab Keeps Faltering So Why Does One Big Bank Currently Expect 100% Upside?
Rocket Lab's stock has shed more than half its value from its peak while analysts pile on buy ratings and one major bank sees the price doubling. Something has to give, and the answer hinges on a rocket that has…
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Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) currently trades at $63.92 against a consensus analyst price target of $112.94, implying roughly 77% upside if Wall Street’s average call proves right.
Rocket Lab operates the Electron rocket, the Neutron medium-lift vehicle in development, and a fast-expanding space-systems business. Backlog and revenue are climbing at record pace, yet the stock has been sliding in the opposite direction, creating an interesting disconnect.
KeyBanc carries the Street-high target at $135.00, implying roughly 111% upside from current levels.
Growth Story, Sinking Share Price
Rocket Lab’s chart and P&L tell different stories. Shares are down 6.39% over the past week, 8.37% year to date, and sit far below the 52-week high of $151, a peak-to-current drawdown exceeding 57% for a stock with a beta of 2.629.
Q2 revenue of $234.07 million beat consensus of $230.94 million and grew 62.0% year over year, but GAAP EPS of -$0.08 missed the -$0.0767 estimate due to $8.576 million acquisition costs. An $1.53 billion ATM raise in the first half, a narrowing Neutron launch window, and integration risk from Mynaric, Motiv, and Iridium explain market caution.
Why Analysts Remain Bullish
The sell side has not blinked. Alpha Vantage shows 3 Strong Buy, 11 Buy, 4 Hold, and 0 Sell ratings, and recent EPS revisions for 2026 and 2027 have skewed upward over the trailing 30 days. Backlog jumped 137% year over year to $2.36 billion, with management booking more than $1 billion in new Q3 contracts.
KeyBanc’s Michael Leshock upgraded to Overweight with the $135.00 target, citing Rocket Lab as the clear No. 2 challenger to SpaceX in commercial launch, high conviction in Neutron scaling, structural undersupply of global launch capacity as Starship absorbs Starlink demand, and a growing defense book anchored by the $397 million Flatellite award for the U.S. Space Force SB-AMTI program.
Management targets Q4 2026 pad delivery for Neutron, but CEO Peter Beck warned that “the window for an end-of-year launch is narrowing.” CFO Adam Spice added that meaningful cash-flow improvement likely follows Neutron’s test flight by 18 to 24 months, framing this as a 2027 story.
Space Peers in the Same Storm
AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) trades at $59.10, down 18.63% year to date, with consensus target at $78.48 for roughly 33% upside and a 1 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, 7 Hold, 1 Sell, 1 Strong Sell split markedly more cautious than RKLB’s.
Planet Labs (NYSE:PL) has held roughly flat year to date at $19.85, but the $40.10 consensus target implies about 102% upside. Ratings run 1 Strong Buy, 6 Buy, 3 Hold, 1 Sell, with analysts pointing to 42% revenue growth and an $816 million backlog.
Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ:LUNR) sits at $15.36 versus a $29.25 target, roughly 90% upside, with 7 Buy, 1 Hold, and 1 Strong Sell.
Planet Labs shows the largest implied upside, but RKLB is the highest-quality name with the cleanest ratings distribution, making KeyBanc’s $135 target stand out even in a discounted peer set.
By the Numbers
With shares at $63.92 and a consensus target of $112.94 across 18 analysts, implied upside is roughly 77%, with KeyBanc’s Street-high target stretching that to about 111%. Rocket Lab is down 8.37% year to date while the S&P 500 has climbed 12.48%, a roughly 21-point relative gap.
Ratings breakdown:
- Strong Buy: 3
- Buy: 11
- Hold: 4
- Sell / Strong Sell: 0
Rocket Lab trades at 53x trailing sales with a beta of 2.629, so target-price math assumes the growth curve compounds.
Bull and Bear Case for RKLB
The bull case rests on Neutron reaching the pad in Q4 2026, flying successfully in early 2027, and Iridium closing on schedule to add recurring communications revenue atop a backlog that grew 137% year over year. If those pieces land, KeyBanc’s $135 target becomes defensible and the current price would reflect a discount window on a genuine SpaceX alternative.
The bear case builds if Neutron slips, the ATM machine keeps running, and integration friction from three simultaneous acquisitions turns 2027 into cleanup rather than scaling. At 53x sales with persistent GAAP losses, a delayed first flight would justify further multiple compression.
The bull thesis is intact, backlog is real, and analyst posture skews positive, though risk/reward only gets easy once Neutron actually flies. The first launch window remains the key catalyst to watch.
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Alex Sirois is a financial writer with experience spanning both retail and institutional investing. He has written for InvestorPlace and held roles at BNY Mellon and Bernstein, giving him a perspective that bridges Main Street portfolios and Wall Street analysis.
Alex holds an MBA from George Washington University and has built his career across multiple industries, including e-commerce, education, and translation — a breadth of experience that informs how he breaks down complex financial topics for everyday investors. His writing is conversational, actionable, and grounded in long-term, buy-and-hold investing principles.
At 247 Wall St., Alex focuses on delivering analysis that is both accessible and useful, with a clear emphasis on helping readers make more informed decisions with their money.
