Prediction: NVIDIA Stock Has Returned 14,700% in 10 Years. Can It Do It Again?

NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) has been the defining trade of the AI era. Over the past decade, the stock has returned a staggering 14,460.09%, turning a $10,000 stake into roughly $1.45 million.

The question every shareholder is asking now: can the next 10 years even come close? Our proprietary model says the next 12 months, at least, still point higher.

NVIDIA trades near $226.18 as of September 8, 2026. Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for NVIDIA is $308.85 over the next 12 months, implying 36.55% upside. Our recommendation is buy with high confidence.

What Has Actually Happened This Year

NVDA is up 21.23% year to date and 31.73% over the past year.

Fiscal Q2 FY27, reported August 26, 2026, delivered revenue of $96.22 billion (+105.85% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS of $2.22, the fifth consecutive beat. Data Center hit $89.02 billion (+117% YoY). Q3 guidance calls for revenue of $108 billion at 74% gross margins.

Meanwhile, supplier Wistron announced a $1.5 billion global stock sale this week, a reminder of how much capital is being raised across the NVIDIA ecosystem.

Why Bulls See a Path Well Above $350

CEO Jensen Huang told investors “AI is now doing productive and useful work” and that “our demand is much higher” than the 70% supply NVIDIA can currently deliver. Management guided fiscal 2028 revenue growth of approximately 70%, describing it as supply-constrained.

Vera Rubin, now in full production, generates a $40 billion revenue opportunity per gigawatt versus $25 billion for Blackwell. Top-5 hyperscaler capex is projected at nearly $800 billion in 2026 and $1.3 trillion in 2027. Our bull scenario points to $352.95, roughly in line with the Street-high target of $327.13.

What Could Go Wrong

Guidance excludes any China Data Center compute revenue. Supply commitments swelled to $279 billion, largely memory for Vera Rubin, tying up cash. DSO extended from 45 to 60 days, and NVIDIA has extended $108.5 billion in guarantee obligations to AI cloud partners.

Gross margins are expected to bottom in Q4 at 71% to 72% on memory pricing. Our bear scenario lands at $260.50. Bulls would counter that the margin dip reflects the Vera Rubin ramp, which should re-expand margins as volumes normalize.

How NVIDIA Compares to AMD and Broadcom

Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) is the closest US-listed head-to-head competitor in AI accelerators. AMD posted Q2 2026 revenue of $11.54 billion (+50.11% YoY) with Data Center up 107%, but trades at a trailing P/E of 180 versus NVDA’s 46. On growth-adjusted valuation, NVDA looks cheaper, which supports our target.

Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) is the custom-accelerator alternative. AVGO’s Q3 AI semiconductor revenue reached $16.70 billion (+221% YoY), with Q4 guided to $21.7 billion. Growth is comparable, but Broadcom’s opportunity is narrower and customer-specific. That relative concentration makes NVDA’s platform breadth look more defensible for our $308.85 target.

NVIDIA Price Prediction 2026-2030

My verdict: Buy, with a 24/7 Wall St. price target of $308.85 and 90% confidence. The tipping factor is Huang’s own admission that supply covers only 70% of demand into fiscal 2028.

The thesis strengthens if Vera Rubin ramps into 20% of Data Center revenue in Q3 as guided. The thesis weakens if China restrictions widen or hyperscaler capex slips meaningfully below the $1.3 trillion 2027 mark.

These projections assume NVIDIA continues executing on the Vera Rubin ramp and hyperscaler capex holds. Meaningful upside or downside could come from China policy shifts or a stalled AI infrastructure cycle.

The harder question, whether another NVIDIA is already forming somewhere in the AI stack, is the one we tried to answer by reverse-engineering what past monster winners looked like early in a free playbook you can grab here.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.