Oracle heads into tonight’s earnings with an unusually high bar after guiding for 27-29% revenue growth and 58-64% total cloud growth in the first quarter. But the bigger number investors should watch is Oracle’s massive $638 billion in remaining performance obligations, up 363% year over year.
That backlog has given investors tremendous visibility into future demand, but Oracle now needs to prove it can convert those contracts into revenue quickly enough to justify its aggressive infrastructure buildout.
The company expects roughly $70 billion of net capital expenditures in fiscal 2027 and plans to raise around $40 billion through debt and equity financing.
Prediction markets currently put the probability of an EPS beat at around 80%. Investors will be watching OCI growth and management’s delivery timeline for its enormous backlog for evidence that Oracle’s massive AI infrastructure spending cycle is translating into equally massive revenue growth.
Oracle just reported earnings, with shares initially up 6% following the report. Here are the key numbers:
Revenue: $19.3 billion vs. $19.1 billion expected
Adjusted EPS: $1.92 vs. $1.74 expected
Operating Income: $8.2 billion vs. $7.8 billion expected
Guidance:
Revenue: $90 billion vs. $89 billion expected
EPS: $8.10 vs. $8.06 expected
Quick Read:
Oracle delivered a particularly strong 10% EPS beat, while revenue came in roughly 1% ahead of expectations.
RPO reached $664 billion, up $209 billion year over year, giving investors another sign that massive AI and cloud demand is continuing to translate into Oracle’s backlog.
As of Jun 30, 2026 quarter end · 13F disclosures lag ~45 days — long positions only, tracked filers only.
Eight of the 13 filers added Oracle shares in the June quarter, against just two trimmers and zero exits, with Point72 sitting at the top of the value-ranked list. That is the positioning disclosed as of June 30, roughly 45 days stale, so tonight's report meets a hedge fund crowd that leaned in well before the backlog debate heated up.
Traders on Polymarket still lean heavily toward an Oracle EPS beat tonight, but that confidence has cooled by 6 points into the close. The crowd's bar is set high on a quarter where management already guided to 27-29% revenue growth, so a narrow beat may not satisfy the setup.
Friday's expiry is stacked with calls: 10,173 contracts sit at the $165 strike versus 1,890 puts, and the 0.62 put/call ratio says traders are bullish heading into tonight's report. However, that crowded call ownership leaves little cushion if Oracle disappoints. ATM implied volatility at 200.5% on the $162.50 strike shows how much movement options are pricing.
June's quarter showed Oracle can beat on earnings while barely clearing the revenue bar, and investors punished the thin top-line margin plus the capital spending it takes to feed OCI. That reaction, and the slide since, means tonight's report has to deliver on the 27-29% revenue growth guide rather than lean on the backlog story again.
Analysts have pressed Oracle on OCI capital spending on every one of the last four calls, and that thread decides tonight's reaction: the backlog story we flagged this afternoon only pays off if management funds the buildout without wrecking margins or cash flow. RPO and booking momentum went unmentioned last quarter after three straight appearances, so its return on the call would signal how durable that pipeline really is.
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