Prediction: One of the World’s Biggest Stocks Could Still Have Room to Run
Alphabet just posted blowback earnings that crushed estimates across every major segment, yet the stock sits nearly 8% below last month's highs. Here is why that gap between operating momentum and share price could matter a lot to long-term investors.
This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.
Alphabet has quietly become one of the market’s most compelling AI stories, and our model suggests the market still hasn’t fully priced in the payoff. Google (NASDAQ:GOOG | GOOG Price Prediction) trades at $328.38 after a 7.66% pullback over the past month, but the underlying business is accelerating.
Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Google is $509.02, implying 55.21% upside over the next 12 months. The recommendation is buy, and our confidence level is 90%, near the top of our conviction band.
24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $328.38 |
| 24/7 Wall St. Price Target | $509.02 |
| Upside | 55.21% |
| Recommendation | BUY |
| Confidence Level | 90% |
A Pullback Into Accelerating Fundamentals
GOOG has returned 37.22% over the past year and 4.85% year to date, but the last month has been weaker. That softness looks disconnected from operating results.
In Q2 FY2026, Alphabet posted revenue of $119.8 billion, up 24% year over year, and EPS of 9.11 against a 2.88 estimate. Operating income rose 30% to $40.8 billion. Google Cloud grew 82% to $24.8 billion, with cloud backlog reaching $514 billion. Google is also committing $15 billion to new AI infrastructure in Europe, reinforcing that the capacity build is global.
Why Bulls See a Breakout to $572
The bull case rests on Google Cloud’s acceleration from 34% to 48% to 63% to 82% across four quarters, Gemini’s 950 million app MAUs, and the fact that nearly 90% of Fortune 100 companies use Gemini Enterprise.
CEO Sundar Pichai said “It feels like we are in very early innings of what feels like secular shift.” Our bull-case scenario points to $571.97, roughly 74.41% upside if backlog conversion and TPU deliveries land as guided.
What Could Go Wrong
The bear case starts with capital intensity. Q2 CapEx hit $44.92 billion, free cash flow turned negative at $5.9 billion, long-term debt more than doubled to $98.2 billion, and management guided 2026 CapEx to $175B-$185B. Regulatory pressure is real too, including a $3.5 billion EC fine.
That said, the CapEx surge is funding the same AI infrastructure driving 82% Cloud growth and a $514 billion backlog (the power, cooling, and networking companies feeding that buildout are the subject of a free report we put together, here). Our bear-case target is $420.02, still above today’s price.
How Google Compares to Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon
Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) is the closest cloud and AI competitor. It trades at a forward P/E of 25 with quarterly revenue growth of 17.7%, meaningfully slower than Google’s 24%. Google trading well below that multiple looks anomalous.
Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) is the closest digital-ad peer. Meta’s forward P/E of 18 and quarterly revenue growth of 28% are the tightest read on ad-market health, and Google’s Search plus YouTube growth is keeping pace.
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is the AWS comparable. Amazon trades at a forward P/E of 24 with an operating margin of 13.7%, well below Google’s 32.03%. Against this peer set, our 24/7 Wall St. price target of $509 looks reasonable on a peer-relative basis.
| Company | Forward P/E | Operating Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 32.03% | |
| Microsoft | 25 | 45.1% |
| Meta | 18 | 34.8% |
| Amazon | 24 | 13.7% |
Google Price Prediction 2026-2030
My verdict: the 24/7 Wall St. price target of $509.02 and buy rating at 90% confidence reflect a rare setup: mega-cap scale, accelerating cloud growth, and a Search franchise that AI has strengthened.
The bull thesis holds if cloud backlog converts to revenue on schedule. The thesis weakens if 2026 CapEx creeps above the $185 billion ceiling without matching backlog growth.
Looking further ahead, here is where our model projects Google could trade if current growth trajectories hold.
| Year | 24/7 Wall St. Price Target |
|---|---|
| 2026 | $369 |
| 2027 | $509 |
| 2028 | $690 |
| 2029 | $890 |
| 2030 | $1,093 |
These projections assume Google continues executing on AI infrastructure and Cloud commercialization. Meaningful upside or downside could come from Gemini 4’s reception or a shift in the CapEx-to-return cycle.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Vandita Jadeja is a financial publisher with over a decade of experience writing about financial topics, including investment, savings, retirement, insurance and banking. Vandita is a Chartered Accountant who loves to debunk financial concepts for readers.
Her work has appeared on sites that include The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, and Benzinga. She covers investing and focuses on stock picks and price prediction for 24/7 Wall St.
When not looking for the next stock investment opportunity, she can be found traveling, reading, chasing sunsets and enjoying her iced latte.
