With Just 5 Days to Next FOMC Meeting, Odds of Fed Rate Hike Surge to Over 85%
Market sentiment on the Fed's next move has flipped dramatically in just one month, and inflation data released this morning may have sealed the deal before traders even had time to react.
Investors entered September expecting the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates on hold. Five days before the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting, that assumption has been turned on its head.
CME FedWatch now puts the odds of a quarter-point rate hike at 85.6% for the Sept. 16 meeting. That’s a remarkable shift from Aug. 11, when traders saw just a 48.4% probability of an increase. In other words, the market has gone from essentially a coin flip to treating a hike as the overwhelmingly likely outcome. The catalyst is inflation.
Inflation is Making the Fed’s Job Harder
The latest inflation data gave investors another reason to rethink the Fed’s next move. This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported consumer prices rose 3.4% year-over-year in August, while core inflation increased 0.3% from the previous month. While the numbers matched expectations, they offered little evidence that inflation is moving cleanly toward the Fed’s 2% target. Yesterday, the Producer Price Index came in above expectations
Energy prices aren’t helping, either. Oil has remained elevated amid tensions surrounding the Middle East, adding another potential source of inflationary pressure. That makes it harder for the Fed to justify easing policy when price pressures are already proving stubborn.
The market’s response has been swift. Treasury yields have jumped, with the 10-year yield approaching 5%, while shorter-term yields have also climbed as traders price in tighter monetary policy.
What a Hike Means for Investors
Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs throughout the economy, from mortgages and corporate debt to credit cards. They also raise the discount rate investors use to value future corporate earnings, which can put particular pressure on high-growth stocks whose valuations depend heavily on profits expected years down the road.
That’s especially important after a market rally fueled by enthusiasm around artificial intelligence and expectations for strong future earnings.
But investors shouldn’t automatically assume a rate hike means stocks are headed for a collapse. The market has had time to adjust as the probability of a hike has climbed. And a single 25-basis-point increase would hardly constitute an aggressive tightening cycle. The bigger question is what the Fed signals afterward.
Key Takeaway
An 85.6% probability doesn’t mean a rate hike is guaranteed. But with the odds having risen from 48.4% in just one month, investors clearly believe the Fed’s inflation problem has become more urgent.
More importantly, the Sept. 16 decision could establish a new market narrative. If Fed officials signal that additional hikes may be necessary, bond yields could move higher, and equity valuations could face another test. If the Fed presents the hike as a one-and-done move, stocks could breathe a sigh of relief.
For investors, the takeaway is simple: With the market now pricing in an 85.6% chance of a hike, the Sept. 16 meeting is less about whether the Fed acts and increasingly about how much further it may be willing to go.
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After two decades of patrolling the dark corners of suburbia as a police officer, Rich Duprey hung up his badge and gun to begin writing full time about stocks and investing. For the past 20 years, he’s been cruising the markets looking for companies to lock up as long-term holdings in a portfolio while writing extensively on the broad sectors of consumer goods, technology, and industrials. Because his experience isn’t from the typical financial analyst track, Rich is able to break down complex topics into understandable and useful action points for the average investor. His writings have appeared on The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, Yahoo! Finance, Money Morning, and, of course, 24/7 Wall St. He has been featured in both U.S. and international publications, including MarketWatch, Financial Times, Forbes, Fast Company, and USA Today.
