Price Prediction: Amazon Stock Will Hit $400 on This Date
Amazon shares sit 14% below their 52-week high, yet one specific earnings report next month could set the stage for a 62% surge over the next two years. Here is the exact date and the three numbers that will determine…
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Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN | AMZN Price Prediction) stock will close above $400 by September 28, 2028. The first test is the Q3 2026 earnings report, scheduled for October 28, 2026 after the market close.
Shares traded at $246.29 this morning, so the target calls for a 62.4% gain. Our base-case model reaches $400.85 on that September 2028 date, and the business data behind it keeps getting stronger.
The stock is starting from a lower point. Shares fell 7.56% over the past month and sit 14.2% below the 52-week high of $287.20. For retirement investors with a multi-year horizon, the next 29 days set up the first test.
A $496 Billion AWS Backlog Is Already Locking In 2028 Revenue
AWS revenue reached $42.2 billion in Q2, up 36.7% year over year. Growth has now accelerated for the fifth straight quarter. The backlog stands at $496 billion and is growing by triple digits.
Management said the lion’s share of 2027 capacity is already reserved, along with “quite a bit of capacity” for 2028. That reserved demand covers the same window as this prediction.
Profits Are Growing Faster Than Sales
Q2 revenue rose 19.6% to $200.61 billion, while operating income grew 43.24% to $27.46 billion. AWS posted a 39.4% operating margin. Advertising brought in $19.81 billion, up 26%.
For Q3, Amazon expects operating income of $22.5 billion to $26.5 billion, compared with $17.4 billion a year earlier. Even the low end of that range is a big step up from last year.
Custom Chips Are Becoming a Second Growth Engine
Amazon’s AI and chips businesses each passed an annualized run rate of $25 billion, and both are growing by triple digits. Anthropic and OpenAI have signed multi-year, multi-gigawatt commitments to Trainium, Amazon’s AI chip.
Graviton, its in-house server processor, is used by 98% of Amazon’s top 1,000 EC2 customers. Wall Street agrees with the direction: 59 analysts recommend buying the stock, 2 rate it a hold and none rate it a sell.
Three Numbers to Check on October 28
- AWS growth: A sixth straight quarter of acceleration above 36.7% supports the path to 2028.
- Operating income: A result in or above the $22.5 billion to $26.5 billion guidance range shows that profit growth is holding up.
- Spending versus cash generation: In Q2, capital spending of $54.21 billion topped operating cash flow of $45.39 billion. That gap needs to narrow.
Past reports show the market pays for results. After the Q2 report, the stock rose 15.32% on the day. Reactions have not always been positive, though. After beating in Q2 2025, shares fell 8.27% on the day.
If this call fails, the reason will be AI spending that runs ahead of revenue and deepens the trailing free cash flow loss of $7.6 billion. With 2027 capacity already reserved and profits growing faster than sales, Amazon closes above $400 by September 28, 2028.
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Vandita Jadeja is a financial publisher with over a decade of experience writing about financial topics, including investment, savings, retirement, insurance and banking. Vandita is a Chartered Accountant who loves to debunk financial concepts for readers.
Her work has appeared on sites that include The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, and Benzinga. She covers investing and focuses on stock picks and price prediction for 24/7 Wall St.
When not looking for the next stock investment opportunity, she can be found traveling, reading, chasing sunsets and enjoying her iced latte.
