Will Nike Ever Stop Falling? One Analyst is Sure That Buying Now Will Yield 100% Gains
Nike just slipped below its 52-week low while the broader market climbs, but one analyst sees a path to gains that would leave the rest of Wall Street stunned. The question is whether the turnaround math actually works.
Nike (NYSE:NKE | NKE Price Prediction) currently trades at $35.10. The average analyst price target stands at $45.63, which implies 30% upside.
Nike is the world’s largest athletic footwear and apparel supplier, now going through a turnaround under CEO Elliott Hill. Piper Sandler analyst Abbie Zvejnieks rates the stock Overweight. Her $75.00 target implies more than 113% upside, far above Wall Street’s consensus.
The gap between consensus and Piper’s target reflects the core debate: one side views a fallen blue chip near its bottom; the other sees a restructuring requiring more time and cost than bulls expect.
A Shrinking Sales Outlook and a China Reset Sent Nike to a 52-Week Low
Nike’s guidance did the most damage. Management expects fiscal 2027 revenue to fall by a high-single-digit percentage, with adjusted EPS of $1.15 to $1.35 versus fiscal 2026 EPS of $2.10. Shares are down 43.44% year to date.
First-quarter revenue fell 4.3% to $11.21 billion, missing the $11.32 billion consensus, though EPS of $0.48 beat the $0.44 estimate. Greater China revenue dropped 22%, Converse fell 28%, and Jordan Brand declined by a mid-teens percentage. Sportswear revenue fell by a low-double-digit percentage after Nike cut Dunk revenue by nearly 50%. Management warned that China “actually gets worse from a revenue perspective for the balance of this year.”
While the sector is weak, Nike is pulling back supply and clearing inventory, making much of this decline company-specific.
Piper Sandler’s $75 Case Rests on Cost Cuts and a Performance Comeback
Piper’s bull case rests on three points:
- Cost cuts that free up $600 million to $1 billion in yearly savings, adding 130 to 200 basis points to operating margin.
- A wholesale restructuring that wins back shelf space at retailers.
- New running and performance shoes that take back share from challenger brands.
Jefferies has also stayed bullish, with a target around the $75 level.
Nike’s Pace restructuring targets about $2.5 billion in total savings through fiscal 2031, with most coming in fiscal 2029 and 2030. Performance business grew by a high-single-digit percentage and running by double digits. Hill called that “a proof point” for the strategy. Nike plans to share a long-term financial framework at its November investor day.
The Street remains largely conservative. Of 39 analysts, one rates Nike a Strong Buy, 10 a Buy, 25 a Hold, one a Sell, and two a Strong Sell. Management also said pain will “bleed in a little bit into fiscal 28,” so recovery will take time.
Deckers Outdoor (NYSE:DECK) has the largest consensus upside in the group, which also includes Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ:LULU).
Nike Slips Below Its 52-Week Low as the S&P 500 Climbs
At $35.10, Nike stands just under its $35.16 52-week low and far below its $72.39 high. The $45.63 consensus target from 39 analysts implies 30% upside.
Shares fell 7.92% over the past month and 51.13% over the past year, while the S&P 500 gained 12.04% year to date and 14.3% over the past year. Nike trades at about 21 times forward earnings and pays a $0.410 quarterly dividend that management says it can support “under all scenarios.”
Nike’s Recovery Case Is Credible, but $75 Is Years Away
Upside would build if the November investor day lays out a credible path to higher margins, if Pace savings arrive on schedule, and if performance growth offsets cuts in Sportswear and Jordan. The road to $75 runs through wider margins on steady sales.
Risks would mount if China drops beyond fiscal 2027, if Converse keeps shrinking, or if Dunk and Jordan cutbacks leave a gap that performance products can’t fill. Adjusted EPS is guided to $1.15 to $1.35, leaving little room for a guidance cut.
I lean cautiously bullish. The 30% consensus upside looks reachable if Pace delivers. The dividend is backed by $8.4 billion in cash and short-term investments. Piper’s $75 target is the best case, requiring nearly everything to go right.
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Alex Sirois is a financial writer with experience spanning both retail and institutional investing. He has written for InvestorPlace and held roles at BNY Mellon and Bernstein, giving him a perspective that bridges Main Street portfolios and Wall Street analysis.
Alex holds an MBA from George Washington University and has built his career across multiple industries, including e-commerce, education, and translation — a breadth of experience that informs how he breaks down complex financial topics for everyday investors. His writing is conversational, actionable, and grounded in long-term, buy-and-hold investing principles.
At 247 Wall St., Alex focuses on delivering analysis that is both accessible and useful, with a clear emphasis on helping readers make more informed decisions with their money.
