Prediction: AT&T Could Have More Upside Than Its Dividend Suggests

The 24/7 Wall St. price target for AT&T (NYSE:T | T Price Prediction) is $30.55 over the next 12 months. With shares at $22.15 midday Friday, that means 37.9% upside. AT&T earns a buy rating from the model with high confidence.

The forward dividend of $1.11 yields about 5%. On free cash flow, management guides to $18B+ this year, rising to $21B+ in 2028, with buybacks at roughly $10B in 2026.

Starlink Spectrum Fears Knock AT&T to a Fresh Discount

Shares fell 9.95% in Friday’s session after SpaceX announced a spectrum deal for Starlink Mobile, which hit telecom stocks generally. AT&T is down 8.85% for the week, 13.48% for the month and 7.64% year to date. That leaves it 23% below its 52-week high of $28.75 and 12.8% above its low of $19.63.

Operations look much better than the share price. Q2 adjusted EPS of $0.65 beat the $0.5871 consensus. Revenue of $31.56B fell slightly short of the $31.81B estimate.

AT&T added 432,000 postpaid phones and on October 6 announced a new fiber joint venture with Global Infrastructure Partners and CPP Investments.

Why Bulls See $31.79 and Beyond

Fiber is the engine. AT&T covers 38.6M fiber locations and targets 60M+ by 2030. Consumer wireline broadband revenue rose 27.3%, and 42.5% of home internet customers also carry AT&T wireless. CEO John Stankey: “Where we have fiber, we win.”

Management guides to double-digit adjusted EPS growth over three years and $45B+ in shareholder returns. Analysts are mostly positive with 16 Buy or Strong Buy ratings and a $28.77 consensus target. An upside case covers $31.79, about 43.5% above the current price.

What Could Go Wrong for AT&T

Satellite-to-phone competition is now a live concern. Net debt stands at $144B, with leverage expected to rise to the 3.2 times range after the EchoStar (NASDAQ:SATS) spectrum purchase. Legacy copper revenue fell 25.9%, and interest expense rose 13.8%.

Capex rose 16.4% due to faster fiber deployment. The EchoStar and Lumen Technologies (NYSE:LUMN) deals are expected to add to earnings by 2028. Our bear case of $26.69 still is 20.5% above the current price.

How AT&T Compares to Verizon and T-Mobile

Verizon (NYSE:VZ) competes head-to-head with AT&T in wireless and fiber. Its quarterly earnings fell 22% year over year, yet it trades at about the same multiple as AT&T, whose adjusted EPS beat expectations in Q2. That gap suggests AT&T deserves a premium.

T-Mobile (NASDAQ:TMUS) is the growth benchmark in wireless, with revenue up 7.9% year over year. At $30.55, AT&T would trade near 13x forward earnings, roughly in line with T-Mobile. Against both peers, our target looks reasonable.

AT&T Price Prediction 2026-2030

I’m sticking with our 24/7 Wall St. price target of $30.55, a buy rating and 90% confidence. The free cash flow path toward $21B+ tips the scale.

The bull case holds if fiber and wireless bundling keeps cutting churn. It weakens if Starlink cuts into AT&T’s wireless pricing or leverage remains above 2.5x. At about 9x earnings, the market is pricing in more disruption than AT&T’s results show.

Our model projects where AT&T could trade in the years ahead if current trends hold.

These estimates assume AT&T stays on track with fiber expansion and deleveraging. Satellite competition or delays in retiring copper lines could change these numbers.

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