Why October 14 Could Change Everything for ASML Stock
ASML holds a near-monopoly on the machines powering the AI chip revolution, yet its stock keeps lagging the semiconductor rally. Its Q3 earnings report on October 14 could force Wall Street to reconsider that trade.
ASML (NASDAQ:ASML | ASML Price Prediction) will report Q3 earnings on October 14, and its booming order book suggests Wall Street may be in for a surprise. The company holds a near-monopoly on the advanced EUV lithography machines powering the AI chip revolution, yet its stock has lagged the broader semiconductor rally. With orders already stretching into 2028 and analysts raising earnings estimates, ASML could be poised for another big quarter.
ASML Stock Is Trailing the AI Rally. October 14 Could Change That.
ASML stock is up 65.3% year-to-date, which isn’t too shabby by any means. However, the lithography leader still trails the iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX), which has gained 82.4% over the same stretch.
Across ASML’s last five reports, the average earnings-day move was -1.6%, even with four straight EPS beats. Management expects China to account for around 20% of 2026 sales, and factors like export controls, tariffs, and China continue to weigh on sentiment.
The order book points the other way. AI spending on advanced logic and DRAM has pushed ASML’s demand visibility out to 2028, a situation management described as one “we haven’t enjoyed in many, many years.” With earnings on October 14 approaching, ASML has a chance to reshape investor expectations.
ASML’s Massive AI Order Backlog Points to an Earnings Beat
ASML guided Q3 net sales to €11.0B-€12.0B ($12.56B-$13.71B), with gross margin of 55%-57%. That margin range is above the 54.0% ASML posted in Q2. Consensus calls for Q3 revenue of $11.68 billion and EPS of $10.6598 from 17 analysts. That revenue estimate falls below the dollar low end of management’s own range, so the bar is low for a company that has beaten revenue estimates in four straight quarters.
Key data points:
- Year-end 2025 backlog stood at $45.06B after Q4 bookings of $15.28B, including $8.60B in EUV.
- ASML is “now close to being fully covered with orders for low NA EUV” for 2027 and has already received significant 2028 orders.
- Management targets 2026 growth of over 45% in EUV net system sales, over 75% in memory system sales, and over 30% in installed base management. Q2 installed base sales came in €300 million above guidance.
Upward revisions to the Q3 estimate outnumbered downward ones by 11 to 0 over the past 30 days. A richer EUV mix and higher volumes set up the earnings beat.
Wall Street Sees 19% Upside for ASML Stock
ASML trades at a forward P/E of 29, down from a trailing multiple of 58. Earnings growth above 30% in both 2026 and 2027 supports it up. CFO Roger Dassen added that the current environment “provides more flexibility for pricing than what you would have had in different days.”
The consensus 12-month price target of $2,102.18 implies about 19% upside from the current price of $1,759.81. Of 42 analysts, 38 rate the stock a buy or strong buy, which is roughly 90% of analysts.
ASML trails behind its sector’s returns, and Q3 earnings on October 14 remain a catalyst. Investors should keep an eye on Q3 bookings and any update to the 2027 capacity plan.
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Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 500 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.
Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.
Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.
