AI Cannibalization Is Hitting Salesforce and Adobe In Very Different Ways
Both Adobe and Salesforce beat earnings and both call AI a growth engine, yet one stock has shed nearly a third of its value this year while the other holds up. The reason comes down to where AI feeds on…
Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE | ADBE Price Prediction) and Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) both beat earnings estimates in their latest reports. Still, fear of AI cannibalization is hitting them in very different ways. Adobe sells creative tools that generative models can copy. Salesforce sells the customer database that AI agents have to read from. Both leadership teams presented AI as a growth engine, and investors bought one pitch far more than the other.
Agents Feed Salesforce as Freemium Drains Adobe’s ARR
Salesforce’s Agentforce ARR passed $1.5 billion, up over 240% year over year. That is real revenue, well past the pilot stage. On the call, Marc Benioff pushed back on the doom thesis: “AI isn’t replacing Salesforce. It’s unlocking more value across all four layers of our platform.” Customers back him up. Xero rolled out an AI service agent to 100% of its customers and reached a 62% deflection rate, so most questions never needed a human. Replit, meanwhile, builds its own interfaces on top of Salesforce data. That carries risk for Salesforce, because fewer logins make seat-based pricing harder to defend.
Adobe’s AI-first ARR exceeded $650 million, growing more than 150%. The growth is fast but the base is small next to $27.5 billion in total ARR. Creative freemium users passed 100 million after Adobe held off on price increases to chase adoption. The cost showed up quickly. An analyst on the call noted that net new ARR fell 36, 37% year over year.
| Business Driver | Adobe | Salesforce |
|---|---|---|
| AI Engine | Firefly credits, Acrobat AI Assistant | Agentforce, Data 360 |
| Backlog Signal | RPO up 8% | Current RPO up 14% |
| Cannibalization Risk | Users create content elsewhere | Users work through Claude or ChatGPT |
Salesforce Guards Its Data While Adobe Opens the Front Door
Salesforce wants every AI interface to run through its platform. ClaudeForce pairs Anthropic’s Claude with Salesforce data, and customers have to move up to premium editions that cost 60% to 80% more. So far only 5% of sales and service knowledge workers have upgraded. That leaves a long room for upselling, if the pitch works.
Adobe is pushing Acrobat into ChatGPT, Chrome, Microsoft Edge and WhatsApp, giving up some control in exchange for reach. Interim CFO Steve Day said slower RPO growth reflects the freemium push. Leadership is changing as well: Anil Chakravarthy becomes CEO on December 1, 2026.
Adobe shares are down 31.96% year to date, compared with an 11.14% drop for Salesforce. Barron’s also reported Monday that Adobe was downgraded to Sell on growth concerns.
Adobe MAX and Premium Upgrades Will Show Who Recovers
My focus will be whether Adobe MAX in November lays out a credible plan to turn freemium users into paying ones. You should watch whether Salesforce holds the roughly 14% current RPO growth it guided for Q3. That would suggest agents are adding to its base.
Why Salesforce Holds the Edge in This Fight
Adobe is taking the harder hit. Its main products sit exactly where generative models compete, and its own numbers show bookings slowing while it pays to drive adoption. Salesforce faces a quieter threat: users may skip its screens, but its data remains the source of truth that agents rely on.
Salesforce holds the clearer position because its AI revenue is easier to see. I do discount its $5.90 EPS figure, which included $2.53 per share from investment gains. Adobe’s recovery case depends on a longer turnaround. My view could shift if MAX shows freemium users converting and net new ARR picking back up.
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Alex Sirois is a financial writer with experience spanning both retail and institutional investing. He has written for InvestorPlace and held roles at BNY Mellon and Bernstein, giving him a perspective that bridges Main Street portfolios and Wall Street analysis.
Alex holds an MBA from George Washington University and has built his career across multiple industries, including e-commerce, education, and translation — a breadth of experience that informs how he breaks down complex financial topics for everyday investors. His writing is conversational, actionable, and grounded in long-term, buy-and-hold investing principles.
At 247 Wall St., Alex focuses on delivering analysis that is both accessible and useful, with a clear emphasis on helping readers make more informed decisions with their money.
